307 15th St N · Moorhead, MN 56560

$58,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 596 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 1890 7,405 sqft lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here's your chance to own a professionally remodeled starter home for less than a rent payment. The main floor living spaces were all updated by Paul Davis Restorations. New paint, flooring, finishing, etc. Main floor bedroom plus an egress window to add a bedroom in the basement. Single car garage and a storage shed. Maintenance free vinyl siding on home. Seller related to listing broker., Total SqFt: 596

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1890

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with other surface; 1-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Other fuel source
• Home design: Residential property; One level
• Construction: 596 finished above-ground living area
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.7% in Moorhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#143 in MN, #3,111 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Moorhead Public School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #202 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 269 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $58,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.65%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $15,299
• Equity at exit: $8,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $40,504
• Equity at exit: $5,015

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56560

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,136 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,852/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $431	+0% $415	+5% $398	+10% $382
Rent	-10% $325	-5% $370	+0% $415	+5% $460	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $444	-0.5pp $430	base $415	+0.5pp $400	+1.0pp $384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1521 1st Ave N Moorhead, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,208	$1.15	45d	1	0.23mi
222 4th St S Unit 1 Moorhead, MN	1.0	1.0	600	$575	$0.96	45d	1	0.96mi
915-918 1/2 St S Moorhead, MN	2.0	1.0	575	$725	$1.26	14d	10	1.05mi
908 8th St S Unit 12 Moorhead, MN	2.0	1.0	720	$800	$1.11	22d	1	1.12mi
1106 18th St S Unit 2 Moorhead, MN	2.0	1.0	700	$675	$0.96	45d	1	1.13mi
419 3rd St N Fargo, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$1,875	$1.83	14d	21	1.26mi
405 Broadway N Fargo, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$1,850	$1.90	14d	24	1.49mi
23 Broadway N Fargo, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,318	$1.44	22d	5	1.50mi
905 5th St N Unit 2 Fargo, ND	1.0	1.0	500	$610	$1.22	22d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 41-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $58,000 Active 41-char remark
3. 2014-08-06
   soldstatus $56,500
4. 2014-07-29
   soldstatus $56,500 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   Here's your chance to own a professionally remodeled starter home for less than a rent payment. The main floor living spaces were all updated by Paul Davis Restorations. New paint, flooring, finishing, etc. Main floor bedroom plus an egress window to add a bedroom in the basement. Single car garage and a storage shed. Maintenance free vinyl siding on home. Seller related to listing broker., Total SqFt: 596

5. 2014-06-06
   listed $59,900 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   Here's your chance to own a professionally remodeled starter home for less than a rent payment. The main floor living spaces were all updated by Paul Davis Restorations. New paint, flooring, finishing, etc. Main floor bedroom plus an egress window to add a bedroom in the basement. Single car garage and a storage shed. Maintenance free vinyl siding on home. Seller related to listing broker., Total SqFt: 596

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$1,852
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,091
• − Management: −$1,091
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $4,373
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,050
• After-tax cash flow: $3,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moorhead Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721420
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,009
• Composite: 36.83/100
• National rank: #4560
• State rank: #202 of 301 in MN

Livability — Moorhead

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #3111

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moorhead, MN
• County: Clay County · 44,405 people
• City population: 44,405
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• Population (ZIP): 44,405
• Household income: $75,406
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2229.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,880 people
• By 2030: 70,881 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 76,865 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 83,205 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 98,719 · +45.4%
• By 2100: 111,657 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Lithuanian 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.2% · R 48.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+4.1 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+8.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.32%
• Current HPI: 177.038
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.41%
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-27 Sold (MLS) $45,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $58,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records
• 2014-07-29 Sold (MLS) $56,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-06 Listed $59,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,852 · +35.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.