4490 Oak Ln · Pace, FL 32570

$229,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,178 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,363 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming new home, thoughtfully designed with quality materials, stylish finishes, and everyday convenience in mind. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, looking to downsize, or simply ready for something new, this property delivers lasting value in a prime location. This beautifully built home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms across 1,178 square feet of smart, functional living space—not including the porch. The timeless brick exterior offers classic curb appeal and low-maintenance durability. While exterior painting and shutters are still being completed, the home is nearly move-in ready and full of high-end features. Inside, you'll find elegant granite cou

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Brick exterior
• Granite countertops

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LEATHERED GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service
• Home design: New construction; Detached single-story home; Frame construction
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with frame materials
• Exterior features: Central access neighborhood; Interior lot; Paved, county-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen (about 1 year; described as brand new)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor, approximately 12' x 11.2'
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Recently updated bathrooms (about 1 year; described as brand new)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Insulated doors; Double-pane windows; Low-flow plumbing fixtures
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $229,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $223,820.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,771 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,820
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4175 Bell Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+2%)	4mo	$209,200	$174	62
5612 Peach Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+12%)	2mo	$250,000	$190	61
4852 Covenant Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+14%)	17mo	$269,000	$200	50
4775 Landmark Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+2%)	18mo	$263,000	$218	48
5535 Peach Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+12%)	11mo	$249,000	$189	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-25,333
• Equity at exit: $33,372

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,724
• Equity at exit: $19,352

Cash invested: $62,670 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,174
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$280 /mo · $3,357/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,958

Max offer price $223,820

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,955
• Closing costs: $6,715
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4413 Oak Vista Ln Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,354	$2.37	13d	18	0.03mi
5574 Peach Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,900	$1.29	23d	1	0.46mi
4328 Tiger Oak Ct Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1347	$1,850	$1.37	23d	1	0.51mi
4025 Brittany Ln Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,725	$1.23	21d	1	0.77mi
4933 Bell Ridge Ln Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,437	$1.66	13d	8	1.36mi
5385 E Avenida de Golf Milton, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,200	$1.52	13d	1	1.42mi
5604 Shooting Star Ct Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$2,300	$1.74	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,400 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,400 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,400 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,400 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,400 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,400 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,400 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,400 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,400 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,400 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,400 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,400 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,400 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,400 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,400 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    status Active
17. 2026-05-15
    historical Contingent
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $229,400 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,537
• − Property taxes: −$3,357
• − Insurance: −$1,119
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,100
• − Management: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$6,511
• Taxable loss: −$1,473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$353
• After-tax cash flow: $2,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This nearly move-in-ready home offers a good condition with modern finishes and a prime location. It's a great opportunity for an investor looking to add value through minor improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and shutters — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value.
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves on energy costs and adds value.
• Both Add smart lighting system — Saves on energy costs and adds value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and shutters — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves on energy costs and adds value. ↑
• Both Add smart lighting system — Saves on energy costs and adds value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $229,400 PARMLS