21528 Walnut St · Lost Bridge Village, AR 72732

$435,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 301 Days on market

Built 2000 0.26 ac lot Est $402k · 8% over $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stunning 3 bedroom, 3 bath Lakeview home on Beaver lake offering the perfect blend of comfort and character. Step inside to find a light-filled living area featuring a soaring ceiling with exposed wood that creates a warm, inviting atmosphere. The kitchen and bathrooms shine with freshly painted cabinets and trim giving a crisp updated look. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets on the wrap around deck, perfect for entertaining. Outside, gather around the fire pit and take in the peaceful surroundings. This home also features a large garage with a work area and built in shelves, providing plenty of storage and space. HOA $150 annually. AGENT OWNED PROPERTY

Key facts

• Exposed wood
• Soaring ceiling
• Wrap around deck

Tags

• LAKEVIEW HOME
• LIGHT FILLED LIVING AREA
• SOARING CEILING
• EXPOSED WOOD
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• FIRE PIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options: VA loan, FHA loan, conventional loan, cash, or in-house financing
• HOA & community: Homeowners association fee of $150 annually; Community amenities include swimming pools, tennis courts, playground, clubhouse, party room, picnic area, and proximity to an airport

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage for 1 car
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Municipal electric service (Entergy)
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Crawl space foundation; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Paved road access; Sloped corner lot in a subdivision; Inside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove / electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry; Refrigerator stays; Ice maker connection
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer and dryer stay with the home; electric dryer connection; Electric water heater; Smoke detectors; Ceiling fans; Walk-in shower; Formica kitchen counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric); Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $857 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $435k).
• Recommended offer: $383k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $122k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $382,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.44%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $402,000
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11747 Dogwood Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-4%)	7mo	$208,000	$135	76
11475 Country Club Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,441 (-10%)	13mo	$360,000	$250	65
11579 Hickory Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-10%)	2mo	$125,000	$87	63
11872 White Oak Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,696 (+6%)	15mo	$465,000	$274	59
21293 Ridgeview Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-13%)	21mo	$400,000	$287	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $222,842
• Equity at exit: $318,932

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $605,692
• Equity at exit: $622,369

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72732

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,319/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$959
• Net cashflow: $857

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,484

Max offer price $435,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,103	-5% $980	+0% $857	+5% $734	+10% $611
Rent	-10% $496	-5% $677	+0% $857	+5% $1,038	+10% $1,218
Rate	-1.0pp $1,076	-0.5pp $968	base $857	+0.5pp $744	+1.0pp $630

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11889 White Oak Dr Unit 1221899P Garfield, AR	3.0	2.0	1280	$5,605	$4.38	44d	1	0.41mi
10800 Red Bluff Rd Garfield, AR	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	24d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $435,000 Active 301 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $435,000 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $435,000 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $435,000 Active 298 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $435,000 Active 296 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $435,000 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $435,000 Active 293 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $435,000 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $435,000 Active 291 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $435,000 Active 290 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $435,000 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $435,000 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $435,000 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $435,000 Active 284 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $435,000 Active 283 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $435,000 Active 282 DOM
17. 2025-08-21
    listed $435,000 New Listing

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 3 bedroom, 3 bath Lakeview home on Beaver lake offering the perfect blend of comfort and character. Step inside to find a light-filled living area featuring a soaring ceiling with exposed wood that creates a warm, inviting atmosphere. The kitchen and bathrooms shine with freshly painted cabinets and trim giving a crisp updated look. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets on the wrap around deck, perfect for entertaining. Outside, gather around the fire pit and take in the peaceful surroundings. This home also features a large garage with a work area and built in shelves, providing plenty of storage and space. HOA $150 annually. AGENT OWNED PROPERTY

18. 2025-08-21
    listed $435,000 Active 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 3 bedroom, 3 bath Lakeview home on Beaver lake offering the perfect blend of comfort and character. Step inside to find a light-filled living area featuring a soaring ceiling with exposed wood that creates a warm, inviting atmosphere. The kitchen and bathrooms shine with freshly painted cabinets and trim giving a crisp updated look. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets on the wrap around deck, perfect for entertaining. Outside, gather around the fire pit and take in the peaceful surroundings. This home also features a large garage with a work area and built in shelves, providing plenty of storage and space. HOA $150 annually. AGENT OWNED PROPERTY

19. 2025-03-26
    soldstatus $395,000
20. 2024-05-13
    price $415,000
21. 2024-02-21
    price $420,000
22. 2024-01-02
    historical $1,800
23. 2023-11-02
    listed $1,800
24. 2021-11-19
    soldstatus $280,000
25. 2021-11-18
    soldstatus $280,000 Closed
26. 2021-10-05
    historical
27. 2021-09-30
    listed $299,000
28. 2015-05-14
    soldstatus $100,000
29. 2015-05-14
    soldstatus $100,000
30. 2015-04-20
    listed $112,000
31. 2004-04-30
    soldstatus $108,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,319 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,319 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$3,319
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,386
• − Management: −$4,386
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable income: $3,379
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$811
• After-tax cash flow: $9,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lost Bridge Village

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #21912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lost Bridge Village, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,493

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 27% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Danish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.61%
• Current HPI: 368.3932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+302.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-21 Listed $435,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $435,000 CARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-13 Price Changed $415,000 NWARMLS
• 2024-02-21 Price Changed $420,000 NWARMLS
• 2024-01-02 Rental Removed $1,800 NWARMLS
• 2023-11-02 Listed for Rent $1,800 NWARMLS
• 2021-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-18 Sold (MLS) $280,000 NWARMLS
• 2021-10-05 Delisted — NWARMLS
• 2021-09-30 Listed $299,000 NWARMLS
• 2015-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-14 Sold (MLS) $100,000 NWARMLS
• 2015-04-20 Listed $112,000 NWARMLS
• 2004-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,319 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.