6905 Lone Star · Midland, TX 79705

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,699 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 2017 6,882 sqft lot $176/sqft · at area comps Est $292k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage, located in Lone Star Trails. This home features an open concept floor plan with tall ceilings, granite counters throughout, water softener, tile floors in the living areas and bathrooms, carpet in the bedrooms, all bedroom closets have built ins for storage/organization. Low maintenance desert-scaped front yard, a nice sized back yard for your family get togethers. Call your favorite Realtor to schedule your showing!

Key facts

• 6,882 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2017

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-397/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,009 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,084
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: 2.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6907 Saddle Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+0%)	1mo	$309,000	$181	96
1401 Brand Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-2%)	10mo	$310,000	$187	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-51,654
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-52,144
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,435/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,642

Max offer price $293,151

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	13d	1	0.21mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	13d	1	0.23mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	43d	1	0.26mi
1315 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	13d	1	0.29mi
6706 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	43d	1	0.31mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	20d	1	0.35mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	43d	1	0.35mi
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	13d	1	0.39mi
6717 Brand Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	20d	1	0.39mi
6801 Baron Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$3,150	$1.53	13d	1	0.42mi
1501 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,750	$1.40	13d	1	0.42mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	20d	1	0.50mi
1416 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1933	$3,150	$1.63	13d	1	0.58mi
1408 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	43d	1	0.59mi
1336 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	43d	1	0.59mi
6914 Outlaw Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2123	$3,250	$1.53	13d	1	0.60mi
1341 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	43d	1	0.60mi
1348 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,100	$1.62	43d	1	0.61mi
1405 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	13d	1	0.61mi
1316 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	43d	1	0.62mi
1336 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,899	$1.52	43d	1	0.63mi
1325 Hogback Way Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,950	$1.54	43d	1	0.63mi
1321 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	43d	1	0.63mi
1341 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,950	$1.54	20d	1	0.64mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	20d	1	0.64mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	43d	1	0.64mi
1300 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,350	$1.58	43d	1	0.65mi
1305 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	13d	1	0.66mi
1312 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	20d	1	0.67mi
1300 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,150	$1.65	43d	1	0.69mi
1300 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,150	$1.65	20d	1	0.69mi
1341 Loess St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1623	$2,795	$1.72	43d	1	0.70mi
2060 Acacia Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$3,100	$1.51	13d	1	0.73mi
2409 Husk St Unit 1 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	13d	1	0.73mi
2409 Husk St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,800	$1.45	13d	1	0.73mi
1301 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	20d	1	0.75mi
6309 Ojibwa Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	20d	1	0.88mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	20d	1	0.90mi
2702 Southwest St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.98mi
6735 Draw Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,500	$1.22	43d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $299,000 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $310,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $310,000 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    A beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage, located in Lone Star Trails. This home features an open concept floor plan with tall ceilings, granite counters throughout, water softener, tile floors in the living areas and bathrooms, carpet in the bedrooms, all bedroom closets have built ins for storage/organization. Low maintenance desert-scaped front yard, a nice sized back yard for your family get togethers. Call your favorite Realtor to schedule your showing!

17. 2026-04-30
    price $310,000 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    A beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage, located in Lone Star Trails. This home features an open concept floor plan with tall ceilings, granite counters throughout, water softener, tile floors in the living areas and bathrooms, carpet in the bedrooms, all bedroom closets have built ins for storage/organization. Low maintenance desert-scaped front yard, a nice sized back yard for your family get togethers. Call your favorite Realtor to schedule your showing!

18. 2026-04-17
    listed $320,000 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    A beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage, located in Lone Star Trails. This home features an open concept floor plan with tall ceilings, granite counters throughout, water softener, tile floors in the living areas and bathrooms, carpet in the bedrooms, all bedroom closets have built ins for storage/organization. Low maintenance desert-scaped front yard, a nice sized back yard for your family get togethers. Call your favorite Realtor to schedule your showing!

19. 2026-04-17
    listed $320,000 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    A beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage, located in Lone Star Trails. This home features an open concept floor plan with tall ceilings, granite counters throughout, water softener, tile floors in the living areas and bathrooms, carpet in the bedrooms, all bedroom closets have built ins for storage/organization. Low maintenance desert-scaped front yard, a nice sized back yard for your family get togethers. Call your favorite Realtor to schedule your showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,435 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,036/yr (+$86/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,435
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,468
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,312
• After-tax cash flow: $915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $310,000 ODMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $310,000 PBBOR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $320,000 PBBOR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $320,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

+30.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,435 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.