502 Bellows St · St. Paul, MN 55107

$165,205

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1889 1,524 sqft lot $189/sqft · 35% below area Est $285k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable opportunity on St Pauls West Side offering flexibility for owner-occupants, investors, or future redevelopment plans. This small single-family home is located in a quiet residential neighborhood and presents an excellent option as a starter home, rental property, or long-term investment opportunity. Currently tenant-occupied, the property provides immediate income potential while allowing future ownership the flexibility to continue operating as a rental or pursue their own vision for the site. The manageable size and simple layout make for easy maintenance and lower operating complexity. Potential redevelopment opportunity adds additional long-term upside in an evolving neighbor

Key facts

• 1,524 sq ft lot
• Built 1889
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished living area reported; Below-grade/unfinished area present
• Financial info: Standard rental license (property is licensed for rental)

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking only
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers; Electric fuel
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Entry on main level
• Construction: Built with block, concrete and frame construction; Block foundation; Asphalt pitched roof (age over 8 years)
• Exterior features: Stucco and wood exterior; No pool; No fencing; Public transit within six blocks; City street frontage (public maintained road); Lot dimensions approximately 30x50

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Living/dining room layout; Range; Refrigerator; Main floor full bathroom; Partial basement with single-tenant access
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $165,205 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$284,958) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $165k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $160,248 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.63%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,958
• List price: $165,205
• Delta: -42.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-169
• Equity at exit: $24,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $67,778
• Equity at exit: $14,284

Cash invested: $46,257 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55107

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,935 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$866
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,052/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,611

Max offer price $165,205

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,301
• Closing costs: $4,956
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 Dodd Rd Unit 301 West St Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	600	$1,075	$1.79	24d	1	0.61mi
400 Spring St Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1205	$3,275	$2.72	3d	31	0.68mi
845 Dodd Rd Unit 845-304 West St Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	24d	1	0.69mi
848 Dodd Rd Unit 848-106 St Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	800	$1,095	$1.37	24d	1	0.73mi
234 Annapolis St W Saint Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	528	$975	$1.85	2d	1	0.81mi
111 Kellogg Blvd E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,266	$2.27	1d	20	1.03mi
180 E Kellogg Blvd St Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1436	$3,467	$2.41	1d	22	1.11mi
141 4th St E Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$2,420	$2.98	20d	20	1.13mi
253 Kellogg Blvd W Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	1208	$3,198	$2.65	2d	12	1.14mi
966 Robert St S Saint Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	355	$1,140	$3.21	5d	3	1.15mi
903 Oakdale Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	720	$1,100	$1.53	24d	1	1.16mi
380 Randolph Ave Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	753	$2,946	$3.91	1d	18	1.18mi
333 Sibley St Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1358	$2,577	$1.90	10d	10	1.22mi
240 5th St E St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,770	$2.92	2d	10	1.27mi
250 6th St E St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,868	$2.93	1d	16	1.32mi
45 Butler Ave E Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,549	$1.49	1d	12	1.41mi
101 10th St E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,051	$2.31	2d	25	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,205 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,205 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,205 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,205 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,205 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,205 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,205 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,205 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,205 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,205 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,205 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,205 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,205 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    listed $165,205 Active 1053-char remark
15. 2026-05-15
    historical $165,205 1053-char remark
16. 2012-01-31
    soldstatus $61,800
17. 1994-12-30
    soldstatus $53,000
18. 1991-10-01
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,052 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,052 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,254
• − Property taxes: −$4,052
• − Insurance: −$826
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$4,806
• Taxable income: $562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$135
• After-tax cash flow: $2,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,377
• Household income: $74,531
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 639.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Black 13% Asian 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.70%
• Current HPI: 298.8714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+175.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $165,205 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $165,205 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $61,800 Public Records
• 1994-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1991-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,052 · +23.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.