38 Morgan St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$189,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,044 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1910 4,356 sqft lot Est $208k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Discover the potential of 38 Morgan St. , a versatile and income-generating multi-unit property perfect for both owner-occupants and investors. This well-maintained property features three distinct units: one spacious two-bedroom apartment and two charming one-bedroom apartments, offering a variety of living arrangements for tenants or owners. The property is equipped with modern amenities, including vinyl siding, newer electrical panels, and a recently updated boiler, ensuring efficiency and low maintenance. A full basement provides ample storage space or potential for future enhancements. With convenient parking available, residents will enjoy easy access to their homes. Currently generat

Key facts

• Full basement
• Modern amenities
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• MULTI-UNIT PROPERTY
• MODERN AMENITIES
• VINYL SIDING
• NEWER ELECTRICAL PANELS
• UPDATED BOILER
• FULL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $190k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,768/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1427% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.04%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,488
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Lincoln Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,228 (+9%)	4mo	$215,000	$96	46
182 Payne Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (-4%)	17mo	$200,000	$102	35
158 Christiana St	0.73mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,240 (+10%)	13mo	$247,200	$110	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $91,374
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $283,375
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,595/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$791
• Net cashflow: $1,685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,634

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 50%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,361
▸ 2× units	1	1	$2,406
Total (3 units)			$3,768

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Highland Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	2288	$1,800	$0.79	3d	1	1.03mi
600 River Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1320	$4,995	$3.78	1d	12	1.30mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $189,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $189,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on marketlisting id $189,900 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-01-02
   status Pending
6. 2025-12-19
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2025-12-09
   listed $189,900 Active
8. 2025-05-31
   historical $825
9. 2025-05-31
   listed $825
10. 2025-05-01
    historical $850
11. 2025-04-30
    listed $850
12. 2025-02-26
    historical $800
13. 2025-02-08
    price $800
14. 2025-01-18
    price $825
15. 2025-01-17
    historical $825
16. 2025-01-17
    listed $825
17. 2024-12-21
    listed $850
18. 2024-12-21
    historical $850
19. 2024-12-21
    listed $850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,595 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,902 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,595
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,617
• − Management: −$3,617
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $18,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,386
• After-tax cash flow: $15,840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-19 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-31 Rental Removed $825 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-05-31 Listed for Rent $825 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-05-01 Rental Removed $850 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-04-30 Listed for Rent $850 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-02-26 Rental Removed $800 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $800 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-01-18 Price Changed $825 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-01-17 Rental Removed $825 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-01-17 Listed for Rent $825 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-12-21 Listed for Rent $850 PROPERTYWARE
• 2024-12-21 Rental Removed $850 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-12-21 Listed for Rent $850 SHOWMOJO

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,595 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.