815 2nd Ave SW · Pine City, MN 55063

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1919 0.26 ac lot $181/sqft · at area comps Est $299k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4 bedroom home offering space, updates and a convenient in town location! This property welcomes you with a spacious front porch—perfect for relaxing mornings or quiet evenings. Inside, you’ll find fresh updates including new carpet and a bright, refreshed kitchen featuring new stainless steel appliances and modern cabinetry. The home also offers a large unfinished basement providing excellent potential for future expansion, storage or additional living space. Outside, the spacious yard offers plenty of room for entertaining, gardening or play. Ideally located close to parks, schools, restaurants, and everyday amenities!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Spacious front porch
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• BRIGHT REFRESHED KITCHEN
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• SPACIOUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-689 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (50.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (54.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (54.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 1.5% in Pine City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#370 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine City Public School District (town): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #222 of 301 in MN (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $165k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,322 (54.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.36%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 18.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,447
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -20.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $86,233
• Equity at exit: $215,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $288,353
• Equity at exit: $464,324

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55063

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 18.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,302/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,955

Max offer price $117,283

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 649-char remark

   Show marketing remark (649 chars)

   Charming 4 bedroom home offering space, updates and a convenient in town location! This property welcomes you with a spacious front porch—perfect for relaxing mornings or quiet evenings. Inside, you’ll find fresh updates including new carpet and a bright, refreshed kitchen featuring new stainless steel appliances and modern cabinetry. The home also offers a large unfinished basement providing excellent potential for future expansion, storage or additional living space. Outside, the spacious yard offers plenty of room for entertaining, gardening or play. Ideally located close to parks, schools, restaurants, and everyday amenities!

2. 2026-05-06
   historical Contingent - Inspection 649-char remark

   Show marketing remark (649 chars)

   Charming 4 bedroom home offering space, updates and a convenient in town location! This property welcomes you with a spacious front porch—perfect for relaxing mornings or quiet evenings. Inside, you’ll find fresh updates including new carpet and a bright, refreshed kitchen featuring new stainless steel appliances and modern cabinetry. The home also offers a large unfinished basement providing excellent potential for future expansion, storage or additional living space. Outside, the spacious yard offers plenty of room for entertaining, gardening or play. Ideally located close to parks, schools, restaurants, and everyday amenities!

3. 2026-05-04
   historical 649-char remark

   Show marketing remark (649 chars)

   Charming 4 bedroom home offering space, updates and a convenient in town location! This property welcomes you with a spacious front porch—perfect for relaxing mornings or quiet evenings. Inside, you’ll find fresh updates including new carpet and a bright, refreshed kitchen featuring new stainless steel appliances and modern cabinetry. The home also offers a large unfinished basement providing excellent potential for future expansion, storage or additional living space. Outside, the spacious yard offers plenty of room for entertaining, gardening or play. Ideally located close to parks, schools, restaurants, and everyday amenities!

4. 2026-03-16
   listed $239,000 Active 649-char remark

   Show marketing remark (649 chars)

   Charming 4 bedroom home offering space, updates and a convenient in town location! This property welcomes you with a spacious front porch—perfect for relaxing mornings or quiet evenings. Inside, you’ll find fresh updates including new carpet and a bright, refreshed kitchen featuring new stainless steel appliances and modern cabinetry. The home also offers a large unfinished basement providing excellent potential for future expansion, storage or additional living space. Outside, the spacious yard offers plenty of room for entertaining, gardening or play. Ideally located close to parks, schools, restaurants, and everyday amenities!

5. 2025-08-01
   soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,302 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$187/yr (+$16/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$2,302
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,040
• − Management: −$1,040
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$12,919
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,100
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2728380
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,606
• Composite: 34.63/100
• National rank: #5148
• State rank: #222 of 301 in MN

Livability — Pine City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #8766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine City, MN
• Population (ZIP): 9,270

Population outlook (Pine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,565 people
• By 2030: 26,567 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 23,878 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 20,931 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 15,372 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 11,032 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.2) · D 31.6% · R 66.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -35.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.2 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+26.3 2012: R+0.7 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.98%
• Current HPI: 262.63
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+44.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $239,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,302 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.