7336 Branding Iron Dr · Canutillo, TX 79835

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1992 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy serene country living in this beautifully maintained 2,000 sq ft home on a fully fenced half-acre. A sunroom welcomes you into an open-concept layout filled with natural light. The kitchen features tile countertops, custom wood cabinetry, and a walk-in pantry. This 3 bed, 2 bath home includes a private suite with its own kitchen, bath, and exterior entrance--ideal for guests or income potential. New refrigerated air ensures year-round comfort. Property offers RV parking with sewer and utility hookups, plus a 2,000 sq ft workshop with electricity and air--perfect for hobbies, business, or future living space. Horses or livestock allowed. Adjacent to park and trails.

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 4-car garage
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Composition roof; Built on foundation (details not provided)
• Exterior features: Walled front yard; Walled backyard; RV hookup; Courtyard; Back yard access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Double oven; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Wood; Brick; Concrete; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Refrigerated cooling; Attic fan
• Interior features: Multiple living areas; Multiple master bedrooms; Country-style kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Sun room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,277 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Canutillo ISD (other): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #542 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canutillo El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 519 students, 82% FRL); Canutillo Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 700 students, 64% FRL); Canutillo H S (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,642 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.93%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $145,872
• Equity at exit: $270,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $443,332
• Equity at exit: $582,834

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79835

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,777/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,548

Max offer price $251,427

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7409 Scarlet Oak Pl Canutillo, TX	4.0	3.0	1920	$2,200	$1.15	43d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $300,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $300,000 Active 679-char remark
16. 2025-12-01
    historical
17. 2025-12-01
    soldstatus
18. 2025-11-13
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2025-11-06
    price $220,000
20. 2025-11-05
    price $260,000
21. 2025-10-22
    price $275,000
22. 2025-10-12
    price $284,000
23. 2025-10-03
    listed $299,000 Active
24. 2007-07-23
    soldstatus
25. 2007-05-18
    historical
26. 2007-02-27
    listed $130,000
27. 2004-07-20
    soldstatus
28. 2004-03-02
    listed $109,900
29. 2001-04-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,777 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,713/yr (+$143/mo · 45.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,777
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,072
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canutillo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812780
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,327
• Composite: 28.91/100
• National rank: #6636
• State rank: #542 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canutillo

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1277
• US rank: #22193

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canutillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,289

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 25% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 23% English-only · Spanish 76% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.05%
• Current HPI: 191.76
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+173.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $300,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Contingent — GEPARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $220,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $260,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $275,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-10-12 Price Changed $284,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $299,000 GEPARMLS
• 2007-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-18 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2007-02-27 Listed $130,000 GEPARMLS
• 2004-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-02 Listed $109,900 GEPARMLS
• 2001-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,777 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.