3 W End Ave · Loch Sheldrake, NY 12759

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1965 8,276 sqft lot Est $280k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy three bedroom ranch ideally located close to Sullivan County Community College , Rt 17 and new casino only minutes away. One level living in a neighborhood setting. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

Key facts

• Local breweries
• Investment property
• Natural light

Tags

• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SHOPPING DINING ENTERTAINMENT
• KARTRITE INDOOR WATERPARK
• RESORTS WORLD CATSKILLS CASINO
• LOCAL BREWERIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area recorded from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Full attic; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $247k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#793 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fallsburg Junior Senior High School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,100 statewide, top 96%, 684 students, 64% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fallsburg Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $255k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $247,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.03%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,440
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24 Morris Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (+14%)	7mo	$320,000	$246	53
3 Milton Ln	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,252 (+10%)	11mo	$267,000	$213	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $165,578
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.54×
• Total profit: $466,719
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12759

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,760 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,820/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,230

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $563	-5% $491	+0% $419	+5% $346	+10% $274
Rent	-10% $201	-5% $310	+0% $419	+5% $528	+10% $637
Rate	-1.0pp $547	-0.5pp $483	base $419	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1140 New York 52 Unit 1 Fallsburg, NY	3.0	2.5	1450	$3,300	$2.28	20d	1	0.40mi
38 Karmel And Jacobs Rd Apt 3 Loch Sheldrake, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	15d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $255,000 Active
18. 2025-10-01
    historical
19. 2025-08-18
    price $240,000
20. 2025-06-09
    price $215,000
21. 2025-04-29
    listed $239,000 Active
22. 2024-04-03
    soldstatus $65,000
23. 2018-05-14
    soldstatus $36,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Cozy three bedroom ranch ideally located close to Sullivan County Community College , Rt 17 and new casino only minutes away. One level living in a neighborhood setting. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

24. 2018-03-19
    historical 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Cozy three bedroom ranch ideally located close to Sullivan County Community College , Rt 17 and new casino only minutes away. One level living in a neighborhood setting. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

25. 2018-02-10
    listed $37,900 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Cozy three bedroom ranch ideally located close to Sullivan County Community College , Rt 17 and new casino only minutes away. One level living in a neighborhood setting. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

26. 2004-10-13
    soldstatus $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,820 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,065 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: +$245/yr (+$20/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,820
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,650
• − Management: −$2,650
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable income: $1,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$246
• After-tax cash flow: $4,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610950
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,513
• Composite: 23.84/100
• National rank: #7805
• State rank: #583 of 590 in NY

Livability — Loch Sheldrake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #15202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loch Sheldrake, NY
• City population: 2,036
• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 12% Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.94%
• Current HPI: 495.297
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+220.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $255,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $240,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $215,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-29 Listed $239,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-14 Sold (MLS) $36,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-10 Listed $37,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,820 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.