1305 Thicket Ave · Crandall, TX 75114

$259,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2025 6,970 sqft lot $144/sqft · 11% below area Est $291k · 11% under $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Arbors at Eastland - Nash Floorplan

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessory unit space noted
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan; Second mortgage: none
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA managed by SW Legacy; Annual association fee; Association covers maintenance of grounds, management fees and full use of facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Fire alarm
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete curbs and sidewalks; Connected to municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction (2025) — incomplete
• Construction: Brick, siding and other exterior materials; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Vented exhaust fan; Natural stone/granite counters; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms on main level; Fourth bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Central air conditioning (electric, ENERGY STAR qualified equipment)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Pantry; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Water heater (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment noted)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.3% in Crandall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 787 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $249,454 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.70%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,029
• List price: $259,999
• Delta: -8.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-20,189
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $10,485
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 787
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,264/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,057

Max offer price $259,999

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2204 Boiling Springs Rd Crandall, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1497	$2,131	$1.42	1d	5	1.16mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	43d	1	1.30mi
4101 Valley Mills Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,550	$1.12	1d	1	1.36mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	43d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   price $259,999 403-char remark
2. 2026-05-03
   price $264,999 403-char remark
3. 2026-05-02
   listed $295,999 Active 403-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,494/yr (+$291/mo · 276.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,264
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,395
• − Management: −$2,395
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29
• After-tax cash flow: $4,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crandall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #10022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 9,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $259,999 NTREIS