3100 S Kinney Rd #221 · Tucson Estates, AZ 85735

$60,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured · 189 Days on market

Built 1984 Fair condition $96/sqft · 35% below area Est $92k · 35% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing mountain views greet you from the front yard of this charming corner lot home! This quaint 1 bed / 1 bath residence offers cozy living w/ plenty of character. A welcoming family room features a window unit for extra cooling comfort, the perfect spot to greet visitors or enjoy a morning cup of coffee. The kitchen includes a gas stove & microwave for everyday convenience. An additional entrance leads to the spacious living room, filled w/ natural light from abundant windows. Outdoors, you'll love the paver patio w/ firepit & ample wood supply, ideal for gatherings under the stars. A storage shed has shelving, freezer, & laundry area (washer & dryer included) adds functionality. Located in a wonderful 55+ community, amenities includes water, sewer, & garbage services.

Key facts

• Firepit
• Storage shed
• Gas stove

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CORNER LOT
• GAS STOVE
• PAVER PATIO
• FIREPIT
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.05%
• DSCR: 3.00
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,656
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: -34.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5772 W Lazy St S	0.39mi	1/1.0	624 (0%)	3mo	$100,000	$160	79
6012 W Bar X St	0.31mi	2/1.5 (+1)	600 (-4%)	3mo	$89,900	$150	69
5828 W Rocking Circle St	0.35mi	1/1.0	672 (+8%)	3mo	$70,000	$104	68
5780 W Lazy St S	0.39mi	2/2.0 (+1)	600 (-4%)	4mo	$155,000	$258	63
5716 W Bar X St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (+1)	550 (-12%)	9mo	$68,000	$124	48
5509 W Lazy Heart St	0.66mi	1/1.5	620 (-1%)	22mo	$130,000	$210	48
5825 W Bar X St	0.31mi	2/2.0 (+1)	550 (-12%)	16mo	$115,000	$209	44
5732 W Lazy Heart St	0.39mi	1/1.0	710 (+14%)	21mo	$128,000	$180	41
5448 W Lazy St S	0.73mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (-4%)	20mo	$82,500	$138	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $30,470
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $78,343
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85735

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $651	+0% $631	+5% $610	+10% $589
Rent	-10% $526	-5% $578	+0% $631	+5% $683	+10% $735
Rate	-1.0pp $661	-0.5pp $646	base $631	+0.5pp $615	+1.0pp $599

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-02-18
    price $60,000 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Amazing mountain views greet you from the front yard of this charming corner lot home! This quaint 1 bed / 1 bath residence offers cozy living w/ plenty of character. A welcoming family room features a window unit for extra cooling comfort, the perfect spot to greet visitors or enjoy a morning cup of coffee. The kitchen includes a gas stove & microwave for everyday convenience. An additional entrance leads to the spacious living room, filled w/ natural light from abundant windows. Outdoors, you'll love the paver patio w/ firepit & ample wood supply, ideal for gatherings under the stars. A storage shed has shelving, freezer, & laundry area (washer & dryer included) adds functionality. Located in a wonderful 55+ community, amenities includes water, sewer, & garbage services.

16. 2025-12-12
    listed $70,000 Active 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Amazing mountain views greet you from the front yard of this charming corner lot home! This quaint 1 bed / 1 bath residence offers cozy living w/ plenty of character. A welcoming family room features a window unit for extra cooling comfort, the perfect spot to greet visitors or enjoy a morning cup of coffee. The kitchen includes a gas stove & microwave for everyday convenience. An additional entrance leads to the spacious living room, filled w/ natural light from abundant windows. Outdoors, you'll love the paver patio w/ firepit & ample wood supply, ideal for gatherings under the stars. A storage shed has shelving, freezer, & laundry area (washer & dryer included) adds functionality. Located in a wonderful 55+ community, amenities includes water, sewer, & garbage services.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $7,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,688
• After-tax cash flow: $5,881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Painting, cleaning the HVAC unit, and trimming the landscaping can significantly enhance its appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Light wear and tear.
• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration.
• Minor Interior walls — Some discoloration.
• Minor Windows — Some wear and tear.
• Minor HVAC unit — May need maintenance.
• Minor Landscaping — Needs trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both Clean HVAC unit — A clean HVAC unit can improve air quality and energy efficiency.
• Both Trim landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Light wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Light wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Some discoloration.	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior walls · Some discoloration.	Minor	$500–3,000
Windows · Some wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC unit · May need maintenance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Needs trimming and maintenance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$3,500–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Clean HVAC unit — A clean HVAC unit can improve air quality and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Trim landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,893

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 41% Two or more races 19% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.03%
• Current HPI: 301.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $60,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-12 Listed $70,000 MLSSAZ