3100 S Kinney Rd #221 · Tucson Estates, AZ 85713

$60,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1984 Fair condition Garage $96/sqft · 35% below area Est $92k · 35% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.8

Listing remarks

Amazing mountain views greet you from the front yard of this charming corner lot home! This quaint 1 bed / 1 bath residence offers cozy living w/ plenty of character. A welcoming family room features a window unit for extra cooling comfort, the perfect spot to greet visitors or enjoy a morning cup of coffee. The kitchen includes a gas stove & microwave for everyday convenience. An additional entrance leads to the spacious living room, filled w/ natural light from abundant windows. Outdoors, you'll love the paver patio w/ firepit & ample wood supply, ideal for gatherings under the stars.

Key facts

• Firepit
• Storage shed
• Gas stove

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CORNER LOT
• GAS STOVE
• PAVER PATIO
• FIREPIT
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($768 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.3% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Laura N. Banks Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 308 students, 70% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 312 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.74%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,128
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: -34.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5772 W Lazy St S	0.39mi	1/1.0	624 (0%)	4mo	$100,000	$160	78
6012 W Bar X St	0.31mi	2/1.5 (+1)	600 (-4%)	5mo	$89,900	$150	68
5828 W Rocking Circle St	0.35mi	1/1.0	672 (+8%)	5mo	$70,000	$104	67
5780 W Lazy St S	0.39mi	2/2.0 (+1)	600 (-4%)	6mo	$155,000	$258	62
5716 W Bar X St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (+1)	550 (-12%)	11mo	$68,000	$124	47
5509 W Lazy Heart St	0.66mi	1/1.5	620 (-1%)	24mo	$130,000	$210	47
5825 W Bar X St	0.31mi	2/2.0 (+1)	550 (-12%)	17mo	$115,000	$209	42
5732 W Lazy Heart St	0.39mi	1/1.0	710 (+14%)	23mo	$128,000	$180	40
5448 W Lazy St S	0.73mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (-4%)	21mo	$82,500	$138	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $443
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $8,067
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.4 mo (29%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $90,250 ($130/sqft)
• Median days on market: 116 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$161
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $213	+0% $192	+5% $172	+10% $151
Rent	-10% $132	-5% $162	+0% $192	+5% $223	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $208	base $192	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities: pool, spa, fitness center, recreation center, paved streets, pickleball

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage1 covered/carport space
• Utilities: Water from water companySewer connectedPhone connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (SilverCrest Cottage model)One level
• Construction: Wood frame constructionMetal roof
• Exterior features: Paver patio/porchDecorative gravelCorner lotPaved road accessPoolSpaFitness centerRecreation centerPickleball courtsPaved street

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorGas rangeMicrowave
• Flooring: CarpetVinylLaminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pumpPropane heatingWindow cooling units
• Interior features: Satellite dish
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $60,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $60,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $60,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $60,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $60,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $60,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $60,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $60,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $60,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on marketlisting id $60,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-07-10
    days on market $60,000 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-07-09
    days on market $60,000 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-07-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-07-06
    days on market $60,000 Active 207 DOM
17. 2026-07-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 206 DOM
18. 2026-07-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 204 DOM
19. 2026-07-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 203 DOM
20. 2026-07-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 202 DOM
21. 2026-06-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 201 DOM
22. 2026-06-29
    days on market $60,000 Active 200 DOM
23. 2026-06-28
    days on market $60,000 Active 199 DOM
24. 2026-06-27
    days on market $60,000 Active 198 DOM
25. 2026-06-27
    days on market $60,000 Active 197 DOM
26. 2026-06-25
    days on market $60,000 Active 195 DOM
27. 2026-06-22
    days on market $60,000 Active 193 DOM
28. 2026-06-21
    days on market $60,000 Active 192 DOM
29. 2026-06-18
    days on market $60,000 Active 189 DOM
30. 2026-06-17
    days on market $60,000 Active 188 DOM
31. 2026-06-16
    days on market $60,000 Active 187 DOM
32. 2026-06-15
    days on market $60,000 Active 186 DOM
33. 2026-06-13
    days on market $60,000 Active 184 DOM
34. 2026-06-10
    days on market $60,000 Active 181 DOM
35. 2026-06-09
    days on market $60,000 Active 180 DOM
36. 2026-06-08
    days on market $60,000 Active 179 DOM
37. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 178 DOM
38. 2026-06-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 175 DOM
39. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 174 DOM
40. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 173 DOM
41. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 172 DOM
42. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 171 DOM
43. 2026-02-18
    price $60,000 812-char remark
44. 2025-12-12
    listed $70,000 Active 812-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$738
• − Management: −$738
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $1,439
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$345
• After-tax cash flow: $1,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $15,600–$28,080 screening

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Painting, cleaning the HVAC unit, and trimming the landscaping can significantly enhance its appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Light wear and tear.
• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration.
• Minor Interior walls — Some discoloration.
• Minor Windows — Some wear and tear.
• Minor HVAC unit — May need maintenance.
• Minor Landscaping — Needs trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Clean HVAC unit — A clean HVAC unit can improve air quality and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Trim landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Laura N. Banks Elementary F AZ #888/1,109 Nat'l #36,424/41,679 Middle Valencia Middle School F AZ #210/218 Nat'l #13,725/14,009 High Cholla High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities: pool, spa, fitness center, recreation center, paved streets, pickleball

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage1 covered/carport space
• Utilities: Water from water companySewer connectedPhone connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (SilverCrest Cottage model)One level
• Construction: Wood frame constructionMetal roof
• Exterior features: Paver patio/porchDecorative gravelCorner lotPaved road accessPoolSpaFitness centerRecreation centerPickleball courtsPaved street

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorGas rangeMicrowave
• Flooring: CarpetVinylLaminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pumpPropane heatingWindow cooling units
• Interior features: Satellite dish
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-23 Listed $60,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-07-11 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $60,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-12 Listed $70,000 MLSSAZ