104 Cottage St · Lockport, NY 14094

$189,900

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,234 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1900 4,792 sqft lot Est $317k · 40% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This historic home is nestled in Lockport’s historical district and has AMPLE storage with 3 finished floors of living space, a full basement, and a detached 1.5 car garage. A welcoming rocking-chair-worthy front porch leads to a generous entry foyer where 1 of 2 stained glass windows cast a gorgeous light. Every window throughout (except for the 2 stained glass) has been replaced, providing generous amounts of natural lighting throughout. The large living room and formal dining space offer ample room for entertaining. A swing door separates the dining room from the 1st floor laundry/pantry that leads to the kitchen. The 2nd floor boasts a large landing with the 2nd stained glass wind

Key facts

• Finished floors
• Full basement
• Generous entry foyer

Tags

• AMPLE STORAGE
• FINISHED FLOORS
• FULL BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• GENEROUS ENTRY FOYER
• STAINED GLASS WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-219/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $181,875 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,932
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
318 Washburn St	0.39mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,036 (-6%)	10mo	$299,000	$98	56
31 Lewis St	0.46mi	5/2.0 (-1)	3,294 (+2%)	16mo	$225,000	$68	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-30,583
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,523
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$380 /mo · $4,561/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,842

Max offer price $186,683

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $36	+0% $-18	+5% $-72	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-90	+0% $-18	+5% $54	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $30	base $-18	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $189,900 Active
3. 2025-11-29
   historical
4. 2025-11-29
   historical
5. 2025-09-23
   price $199,900
6. 2025-09-13
   price $210,000
7. 2025-08-17
   listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,561 · $380/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,561 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,561
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$3,339
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$801
• After-tax cash flow: $583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lockport

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3669

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 50,153
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-29 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-29 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $210,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-17 Listed $215,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,561 · +43.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.