2201 Old Harbor Way · Princeton, TX 75407

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,619 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 2018 5,489 sqft lot $154/sqft · 24% below area Est $327k · 24% under $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,489 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smith El (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 683 students, 54% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,006 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,988
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -23.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1630 Park Trails Blvd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,619 (0%)	3mo	$280,000	$173	93
2200 Barrow St	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+2%)	1mo	$285,000	$172	89
1911 Pilot Point Way	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+2%)	2mo	$255,000	$154	79
1904 Fairbanks Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+2%)	1mo	$265,000	$160	79
2109 Burke Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-1%)	1mo	$319,900	$199	72
1606 De Berry Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-1%)	1mo	$305,000	$190	69
1508 Wild Rye Cir	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,587 (-2%)	1mo	$275,000	$173	65
1305 Savannah Ridge Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,587 (-2%)	1mo	$275,000	$173	63
1814 Prairie View Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,592 (-2%)	1mo	$255,000	$160	62
1208 Augustin Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,591 (-2%)	1mo	$258,000	$162	62
1312 Riviera Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+8%)	1mo	$275,000	$157	48
1204 Bellevue Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-12%)	2mo	$220,000	$154	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-64,354
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-101,862
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1410
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$458 /mo · $5,493/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,408

Max offer price $200,006

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-141	-5% $-212	+0% $-282	+5% $-353	+10% $-424
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-363	+0% $-282	+5% $-201	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-157	-0.5pp $-219	base $-282	+0.5pp $-347	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2205 Old Harbor Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,731	$1.07	23d	1	0.03mi
2105 Old Harbor Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,900	$1.15	13d	1	0.04mi
2108 Barrow St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,719	$1.06	9d	1	0.04mi
1627 White Mountain Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,800	$1.12	5d	1	0.19mi
1623 White Mountain Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	2050	$1,925	$0.94	0d	1	0.19mi
1911 Pilot Point Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,850	$1.12	9d	1	0.20mi
1611 White Mountain Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,950	$1.18	45d	1	0.22mi
1904 Fairbanks Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,095	$1.27	23d	1	0.23mi
1729 Park Trails Blvd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1873	$1,995	$1.07	45d	1	0.24mi
1812 Fairbanks Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,029	$1.28	4d	1	0.29mi
2100 McCallister Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,395	$1.38	6d	1	0.40mi
2100 McCallister Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,195	$1.26	3d	1	0.40mi
431 Court of Pompei Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1996	$2,500	$1.25	26d	1	0.41mi
2408 Merganser St Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1954	$2,250	$1.15	3d	1	0.42mi
1407 Pampa Grass Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1892	$1,900	$1.00	26d	1	0.48mi
1606 Meadow Creek Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1641	$2,000	$1.22	45d	1	0.50mi
2104 Burke Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$2,300	$1.17	45d	1	0.51mi
461 San Remo Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,500	$1.20	26d	1	0.57mi
1305 Savannah Ridge Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,795	$1.13	12d	1	0.62mi
1305 Savannah Ridge Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,795	$1.13	0d	1	0.62mi
130 Meadow Crest Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1873	$1,950	$1.04	26d	1	0.70mi
1212 Roman Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1712	$1,895	$1.11	18d	1	0.72mi
144 Meadow Crest Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1873	$2,000	$1.07	45d	1	0.73mi
137 Prairie View Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,835	$1.38	45d	1	0.73mi
129 Arbordale Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,975	$1.14	0d	1	0.76mi
1210 Augustin Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,750	$0.99	19d	1	0.76mi
1217 Caroline Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1948	$1,975	$1.01	7d	1	0.80mi
1302 Meadow Creek Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1889	$2,095	$1.11	9d	1	0.82mi
1121 Rainer Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1892	$1,900	$1.00	0d	1	0.82mi
1218 Meadow Creek Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1567	$1,726	$1.10	19d	1	0.83mi
1218 Meadow Creek Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1567	$1,715	$1.09	12d	1	0.83mi
1213 Lambert Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,950	$1.15	0d	1	0.83mi
1210 Antoinette Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	2244	$2,045	$0.91	6d	1	0.84mi
1001 Marigold St Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2192	$2,225	$1.02	45d	1	0.84mi
2049 Meadow View Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$1,800	$1.00	14d	1	0.86mi
1114 Bellevue Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1591	$1,949	$1.23	3d	1	0.86mi
1118 Grace Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,850	$1.48	0d	1	0.87mi
1114 Augustin Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	2226	$1,700	$0.76	45d	1	0.88mi
150 Briar Grove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1902	$2,050	$1.08	20d	1	0.88mi
1111 Meadow Side Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	4.0	1567	$2,195	$1.40	9d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $249,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $254,000
17. 2026-04-30
    price $254,000
18. 2026-04-03
    price $259,900
19. 2026-04-02
    price $259,900
20. 2026-03-31
    listed $264,900 Active
21. 2026-03-09
    price $264,900
22. 2026-02-13
    listed $270,000 Active
23. 2018-11-30
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2018-11-05
    status Pending
25. 2018-10-23
    listed $229,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,493 · $458/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,493 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,493
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,848
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $254,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $254,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $259,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $264,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2018-11-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-11-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-10-23 Listed $229,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+32.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,493 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.