1284 Chilton St · Brownsville, TX 78521

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1990 4,850 sqft lot $78/sqft · 45% below area Est $180k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PLEASE USE SHOWING MANAGER. VACANT. EASY TO SHOW.

Key facts

• 4,850 sq ft lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $478 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $100k implies a 488% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.52%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,183
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -44.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4734 Ibiza Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,414 (+10%)	0mo	$274,000	$194	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $22,107
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $94,109
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78521

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,482/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $535	-5% $507	+0% $478	+5% $450	+10% $422
Rent	-10% $362	-5% $420	+0% $478	+5% $537	+10% $595
Rate	-1.0pp $529	-0.5pp $504	base $478	+0.5pp $452	+1.0pp $426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1456 N Minnesota Ave Apt 8 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	44d	1	0.44mi
15 Corine Cir Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.0	1337	$1,200	$0.90	14d	1	0.60mi
7100 Via Del Mar Cir Unit E-10 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1247	$1,500	$1.20	21d	1	0.79mi
7100 Via Del Mar Cir Unit B-3 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,500	$1.30	21d	1	0.79mi
7701 Via Del Mar Cir Unit A-1 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1096	$1,300	$1.19	44d	1	0.84mi
4650 Bowie Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$954	$1.00	44d	1	0.97mi
170 Pearl Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1291	$1,600	$1.24	21d	1	1.12mi
2600 Elyssa Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,850	$1.52	14d	1	1.31mi
328 Creekbend Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,600	$1.79	21d	1	1.38mi
6012 Sabinas St Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,575	$1.31	44d	1	1.45mi
4021 Westland Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,200	$1.39	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 87-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   price $99,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $109,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 41 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 40 DOM
19. 2026-04-20
    listed $109,900 Active 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    PLEASE USE SHOWING MANAGER. VACANT. EASY TO SHOW.

20. 2010-01-19
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,482 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$346/yr (+$29/mo · 23.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,482
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,419
• − Management: −$1,419
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $4,411
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,059
• After-tax cash flow: $4,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 87,380
• Household income: $44,509
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 45% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.45%
• Current HPI: 232.1072
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+546.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $109,900 RGVMLS
• 2010-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,482 · +164.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.