4350 Fazio Dr Unit 5 - C · Dover, MI 49735

$169,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 153 Days on market

Built 1996 1,306 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Only 5 models with 2/2 floorplan and cathedral ceilings of all 33 units in seven buildings. You will experience the daily flood of light as it cascades into your personal space. Views of the fairway, pond and green on the 11 hole are unparalled. This condo has just been updated with new flooring, plumbing, light fixtures in 5/26. New improvements, designed to compliment the newer appliances, kitchen counter tops and furnace installed in ''23''. The exterior entryway stairs and railing have just been updated and painted. The rear deck and railings replaced in ''25'' at individual owners expense per HOA regs on exterior limited common elements. This adds 15/20 years to your maintence free con

Key facts

• Pool
• Built 1996
• Listed 152 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: On waterfront (pond); Private maintained paved road with private road frontage; Therapeutic whirlpool (accessibility feature); Zoning: AR; Subdivision: Treetops North Estates
• HOA & community: Quarterly association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Shared well (see remarks); Cable available
• Home design: Condominium (residential)
• Construction: Slab foundation; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Outdoor pool; Shed(s); Near golf course; Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (Propane); Ceiling fan(s); Has cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Master bedroom on main level; Blinds; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-9/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johannesburg-Lewiston Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #257 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johannesburglewiston Elementarymiddle School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #671 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 346 students, 61% FRL); Johannesburglewiston High School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 218 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otsego County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $170k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $131,380 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-27,574
• Equity at exit: $25,273

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-24,322
• Equity at exit: $14,655

Cash invested: $47,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49735

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $950/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $169,371

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,375
• Closing costs: $5,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,500 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,500 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,500 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,500 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,500 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,500 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,500 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,500 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,500 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,500 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,500 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,500 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,500 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,500 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,500 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $169,500
17. 2026-01-14
    listed $154,500 Active
18. 2019-12-23
    listed $113,000
19. 2013-09-04
    soldstatus $94,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,780 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$830/yr (+$69/mo · 87.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,495
• − Property taxes: −$950
• − Insurance: −$848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,261
• − Management: −$1,261
• − Depreciation: −$4,931
• Taxable loss: −$2,979
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$715
• After-tax cash flow: $706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johannesburg-Lewiston Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2619890
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,218
• Composite: 31.36/100
• National rank: #5995
• State rank: #257 of 540 in MI

Livability — Dover

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,678

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,175 people
• By 2030: 23,836 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 22,718 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,411 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 18,864 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 15,011 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 67.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.52%
• Current HPI: 245.8639
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+78.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $169,500 WWMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $154,500 WWMLS
• 2019-12-23 Listed $113,000 WWMLS
• 2013-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $950 · +34.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.