2022 Sabine St · Houston, TX 77007

$439,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,405 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2015 1,406 sqft lot $183/sqft · 11% below area Est $495k · 11% under $92/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home, a multi-story residence offering modern design and luxurious comfort. This stunning property features 3 spacious bedrooms and 3 well-appointed bathrooms. Enter through a grand foyer into an open-concept living area with high ceilings and expansive windows that fill the home with natural light. The living room flows into a gourmet kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and rich wood cabinetry. The primary suite is a true retreat with a large bedroom, spa-like bath with dual vanities and soaking tub, plus an impressive walk-in closet. A dedicated office with large windows is ideal for working from home. Additional highlights include a 2-car g

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Hike and bike trails
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SPA-LIKE BATH
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• 4TH FL ROOF TERRACE
• HIKE AND BIKE TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Member of Sabine Square Homeowners Assoc; Gated association; Association fee $1,100 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2015; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Concrete road surface
• Construction: Cement siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal; Granite counters; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen/family room combo; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on third floor; Bedrooms possible: 3; Additional bedroom on second floor; Bedroom on first floor
• Flooring: Marble; Slate; Stone; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Wet bar; Dry bar; Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Walk-in pantry; Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $439k).
• Recommended offer: $426k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hogg Middle (math 44% / reading 48%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,120 students, 52% FRL); Heights H S (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,476 students, 65% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Houston ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($145k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($426k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $425,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $494,597
• List price: $439,000
• Delta: -11.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1511 Alamo St	0.15mi	3/3.5	2,397 (-0%)	1mo	$499,999	$209	90
1702 Shearn St	0.08mi	3/3.5	2,465 (+2%)	3mo	$549,000	$223	88
1909 Hickory St	0.26mi	3/3.5	2,345 (-2%)	3mo	$419,900	$179	79
1817 Crockett St Unit C	0.16mi	3/3.5	2,132 (-11%)	3mo	$497,000	$233	69
1510 Johnson St	0.29mi	3/3.5	2,160 (-10%)	2mo	$475,000	$220	66
1819 Dart St	0.43mi	3/3.5	2,198 (-9%)	2mo	$449,000	$204	62
518 Byrne St	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,344 (-2%)	2mo	$1,220,000	$520	59
414 Woodland St	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,365 (-2%)	3mo	$1,100,000	$465	58
1211 Hickory St Unit D	0.50mi	3/3.5	2,099 (-13%)	1mo	$465,000	$222	53
823 Sledge St	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,098 (-13%)	3mo	$950,000	$453	46
3012 Beauchamp St	0.71mi	3/4.0	2,704 (+12%)	1mo	$1,195,000	$442	41
1810 Kane St	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,050 (-15%)	2mo	$825,000	$402	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-74,895
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-103,669
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77007

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,574 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$890 /mo · $10,682/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$961
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,389

Max offer price $439,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2114 Sabine St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2020	$3,200	$1.58	43d	1	0.02mi
2114 Sabine St Unit 1257735P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2594	$6,588	$2.54	43d	1	0.02mi
1512 Crockett St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1808	$2,800	$1.55	43d	1	0.22mi
2018 Crockett St Unit 1029793P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2507	$6,482	$2.59	5d	1	0.23mi
2018 Crockett St Unit 2018 Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2514	$8,000	$3.18	43d	1	0.23mi
1510 Crockett St Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1912	$2,800	$1.46	43d	1	0.23mi
410 James St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$6,750	$4.21	43d	1	0.77mi
410 James St Unit 1031793P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$7,554	$4.74	16d	1	0.77mi
2403 Everett St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2093	$2,800	$1.34	43d	1	0.90mi
1116 Woodland St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2400	$4,000	$1.67	43d	1	0.93mi
150 Sabine St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1187	$2,882	$2.43	3d	15	0.96mi
600 Studemont St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1227	$2,799	$2.28	3d	24	1.16mi
414 Milam St Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,868	$2.44	4d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$9,230	$3.81	13d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,833	$2.42	5d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Unit 447 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$8,973	$3.71	43d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Unit 447 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$8,991	$3.71	10d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Unit 437 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,857	$2.43	11d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,825	$2.41	2d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,833	$2.42	7d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$8,959	$3.70	2d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,857	$2.43	2d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Unit B1-2003 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$4,513	$2.85	43d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1585	$3,845	$2.43	22d	1	1.20mi
414 Milam St Ph 2-4602 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	2158	$8,990	$4.17	43d	1	1.20mi
401 Walton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2112	$2,500	$1.18	14d	1	1.26mi
3131 Memorial Ct Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	1336	$3,418	$2.56	2d	32	1.26mi
909 Texas Ave Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1262	$3,129	$2.48	1d	36	1.30mi
225 S Heights Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$3,085	$2.60	2d	18	1.33mi
915 Texas Ave Unit 420 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2366	$4,655	$1.97	18d	1	1.35mi
915 Texas Ave Unit 420 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2366	$4,655	$1.97	43d	1	1.35mi
2706 Cochran St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1791	$2,700	$1.51	19d	1	1.39mi
2121 Allen Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1207	$3,085	$2.55	2d	42	1.42mi
710 Stanford St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2438	$3,490	$1.43	43d	1	1.42mi
1111 Rusk St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1230	$2,835	$2.30	1d	29	1.48mi
717 Fannin St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1700	$3,800	$2.24	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $439,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $439,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $439,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-05-05
    listed $449,000 Active 980-char remark
13. 2026-05-05
    historical
14. 2026-03-22
    price $449,000
15. 2026-03-09
    price $459,000
16. 2026-02-24
    historical $2,900
17. 2026-02-24
    price $465,000
18. 2026-02-14
    price $2,900
19. 2026-02-11
    price $485,000
20. 2026-01-19
    listed $489,000 Active
21. 2025-12-29
    listed $3,000
22. 2025-12-28
    historical $3,200
23. 2025-11-06
    listed $3,200
24. 2025-10-01
    historical
25. 2025-09-09
    historical $3,200
26. 2025-08-12
    listed $3,200
27. 2025-07-21
    price $489,000
28. 2025-06-07
    listed $499,000 Active
29. 2021-05-18
    soldstatus
30. 2020-06-02
    soldstatus
31. 2019-09-02
    historical
32. 2019-08-16
    price $365,000
33. 2019-07-18
    status Active
34. 2019-07-08
    historical
35. 2019-06-23
    price $389,000
36. 2019-05-22
    status Active
37. 2019-05-13
    historical
38. 2019-05-10
    price $399,000
39. 2019-03-28
    price $409,000
40. 2019-03-19
    listed $419,000 Active
41. 2018-02-16
    historical
42. 2018-01-16
    price $395,000
43. 2017-12-13
    listed $404,900 Active
44. 2017-11-12
    historical
45. 2017-06-12
    listed $409,900 Active
46. 2017-06-01
    historical
47. 2017-02-13
    status Active
48. 2017-01-28
    historical
49. 2017-01-15
    price $419,900
50. 2017-01-02
    listed $423,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,682 · $890/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,682 · $890/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$10,682
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,391
• − Management: −$4,391
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$5,237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $3,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,808
• Household income: $144,911
• Rent vs Own: 53.8% rent · 46.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1812.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 11% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.42%
• Current HPI: 159.8157
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $439,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $449,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $449,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $459,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Rental Removed $2,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $465,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $2,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $485,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $489,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed for Rent $3,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-28 Rental Removed $3,200 HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed for Rent $3,200 HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Rental Removed $3,200 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed for Rent $3,200 HARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $489,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-07 Listed $499,000 HARMLS
• 2021-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-09-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-08-16 Price Changed $365,000 HARMLS
• 2019-07-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-07-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-06-23 Price Changed $389,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-05-10 Price Changed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-28 Price Changed $409,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-19 Listed $419,000 HARMLS
• 2018-02-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-01-16 Price Changed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2017-12-13 Listed $404,900 HARMLS
• 2017-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-06-12 Listed $409,900 HARMLS
• 2017-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-02-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-01-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-01-15 Price Changed $419,900 HARMLS
• 2017-01-02 Listed $423,900 HARMLS
• 2015-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-05-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-10-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-05-16 Listed $429,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,682 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.