18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 209 Lot 209 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,677 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1984 0.27 ac lot $113/sqft · 19% below area Est $232k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOVELY CURB APPEAL!! $129,500 This 1984 Silvercrest home is a great buy. It has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths; plus a large comfortable living room with a fireplace. The estimated square footage is 1677. The home sits on a large lot with complete privacy on one side. There is a nice size front deck; plus concrete patio for outside dining and entertaining. The front yard has a lovely gazebo plus statues. The Master Bedroom is very large and has regular closets plus a walk-in. The space rent is $805.06

Key facts

• Front deck
• Clubhouse
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FRONT DECK
• CHARMING GAZEBO
• CLUBHOUSE
• GYM
• GATED ENTRANCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manager approval required for multi-unit/park residency; Pets allowed with size and breed restrictions and limits; Park body type: Triple
• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment (site rent)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Located in Skyline Ranch Country Club; Community features include golf course, dog park, lake, and street lighting; Land lease for the site

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Attached carport (1 covered/carport space) and 1 uncovered space (2 total spaces)
• Security: Gated community; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Utilities: Private sewer; Propane; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Entry accessed via stepping stones and up stairs to the door; Updated/remodeled condition; Model: Silverwood; Has view with pond and lake on the lot
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Composition roof; Pier jacks foundation; Skirting: brick and masonite; Built as mobile home (mobile home remains); Dimensions: approximately 34' x 56'
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Awning; Rain gutters; Shed on property; Porch and patio present; Community pool (in-ground, filtered, heated, saltwater)

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Propane oven and propane stove; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Upgraded finishes with separate tub and shower; Double sinks in primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Open floor plan; Gated community; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors; In-ground heated spa
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a dedicated room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 2.6% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $189k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.67%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,450
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -18.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #144	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+0%)	12mo	$170,000	$101	89
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 89	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,770 (+6%)	2mo	$215,000	$121	89
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #203	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,784 (+6%)	1mo	$275,000	$154	89
18218 Paradise Mtn Rd #59	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+0%)	3mo	$249,900	$149	80
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 18 Spc 18	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	11mo	$285,000	$159	80
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-8%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	74
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-7%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	73
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-9%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	72
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,530 (-9%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	71
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	12mo	$89,500	$62	66
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	14mo	$165,000	$115	63
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $63,879
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $177,128
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,293 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $556/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$691
• Net cashflow: $1,485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,413

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,592	-5% $1,538	+0% $1,485	+5% $1,431	+10% $1,378
Rent	-10% $1,225	-5% $1,355	+0% $1,485	+5% $1,615	+10% $1,745
Rate	-1.0pp $1,580	-0.5pp $1,533	base $1,485	+0.5pp $1,436	+1.0pp $1,386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $189,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $192,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $192,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $192,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $192,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $192,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $192,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $192,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $192,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    listed $192,000 Active 1183-char remark
17. 2018-12-21
    status Pending Sale 1161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    LOVELY CURB APPEAL!! $129,500 This 1984 Silvercrest home is a great buy. It has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths; plus a large comfortable living room with a fireplace. The estimated square footage is 1677. The home sits on a large lot with complete privacy on one side. There is a nice size front deck; plus concrete patio for outside dining and entertaining. The front yard has a lovely gazebo plus statues. The Master Bedroom is very large and has regular closets plus a walk-in. The space rent is $805.06

18. 2018-11-29
    soldstatus $125,000 Closed Sale 1161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    LOVELY CURB APPEAL!! $129,500 This 1984 Silvercrest home is a great buy. It has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths; plus a large comfortable living room with a fireplace. The estimated square footage is 1677. The home sits on a large lot with complete privacy on one side. There is a nice size front deck; plus concrete patio for outside dining and entertaining. The front yard has a lovely gazebo plus statues. The Master Bedroom is very large and has regular closets plus a walk-in. The space rent is $805.06

19. 2018-11-29
    soldstatus $125,000 Closed Sale 1161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    LOVELY CURB APPEAL!! $129,500 This 1984 Silvercrest home is a great buy. It has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths; plus a large comfortable living room with a fireplace. The estimated square footage is 1677. The home sits on a large lot with complete privacy on one side. There is a nice size front deck; plus concrete patio for outside dining and entertaining. The front yard has a lovely gazebo plus statues. The Master Bedroom is very large and has regular closets plus a walk-in. The space rent is $805.06

20. 2018-11-29
    soldstatus $125,000 Sold 1161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    LOVELY CURB APPEAL!! $129,500 This 1984 Silvercrest home is a great buy. It has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths; plus a large comfortable living room with a fireplace. The estimated square footage is 1677. The home sits on a large lot with complete privacy on one side. There is a nice size front deck; plus concrete patio for outside dining and entertaining. The front yard has a lovely gazebo plus statues. The Master Bedroom is very large and has regular closets plus a walk-in. The space rent is $805.06

21. 2018-11-02
    status Pending Sale 1161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    LOVELY CURB APPEAL!! $129,500 This 1984 Silvercrest home is a great buy. It has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths; plus a large comfortable living room with a fireplace. The estimated square footage is 1677. The home sits on a large lot with complete privacy on one side. There is a nice size front deck; plus concrete patio for outside dining and entertaining. The front yard has a lovely gazebo plus statues. The Master Bedroom is very large and has regular closets plus a walk-in. The space rent is $805.06

22. 2018-11-02
    status Pending 1161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    LOVELY CURB APPEAL!! $129,500 This 1984 Silvercrest home is a great buy. It has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths; plus a large comfortable living room with a fireplace. The estimated square footage is 1677. The home sits on a large lot with complete privacy on one side. There is a nice size front deck; plus concrete patio for outside dining and entertaining. The front yard has a lovely gazebo plus statues. The Master Bedroom is very large and has regular closets plus a walk-in. The space rent is $805.06

23. 2018-10-09
    listed $129,500 Active 1161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    LOVELY CURB APPEAL!! $129,500 This 1984 Silvercrest home is a great buy. It has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths; plus a large comfortable living room with a fireplace. The estimated square footage is 1677. The home sits on a large lot with complete privacy on one side. There is a nice size front deck; plus concrete patio for outside dining and entertaining. The front yard has a lovely gazebo plus statues. The Master Bedroom is very large and has regular closets plus a walk-in. The space rent is $805.06

24. 2018-10-09
    listed $129,500 Active 1161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    LOVELY CURB APPEAL!! $129,500 This 1984 Silvercrest home is a great buy. It has 2 bedrooms and 2 baths; plus a large comfortable living room with a fireplace. The estimated square footage is 1677. The home sits on a large lot with complete privacy on one side. There is a nice size front deck; plus concrete patio for outside dining and entertaining. The front yard has a lovely gazebo plus statues. The Master Bedroom is very large and has regular closets plus a walk-in. The space rent is $805.06

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$880/yr (+$73/mo · 158.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$556
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,161
• − Management: −$3,161
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $15,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,745
• After-tax cash flow: $14,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+45.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $192,000 CRMLS
• 2018-12-21 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-11-29 Sold (MLS) $125,000 SDMLS
• 2018-11-29 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CRMLS
• 2018-11-29 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CRMLS
• 2018-11-02 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-11-02 Pending — SDMLS
• 2018-10-09 Listed $129,500 SDMLS
• 2018-10-09 Listed $129,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2013): $556 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.