1458 Manitou Rd · Greece, NY 14468

$250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Land public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1953 3.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well Built 1954 Ranch is Updated & Fresh! Beautiful Modern kitchen has ceramic tile floor, raised oak kitchen cabinets, plenty counter top space plus stainless steal appliances remain! Formal dining room, spacious living room w/ double doors that open to large 2 tier deck, master bedroom includes bath, vaulted ceiling & walk-in closet, crawl space attic has convenient pull down staircase, Home is freshly painted, has wonderful private back yard, extra wide blacktop driveway, 2 car attached garage, mature yard & landscaping plus small pond. Spencerport Schools & minutes Greece shopping plazas

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Spacious deck

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PANTRY CLOSET
• SPACIOUS DECK
• PRIVATE POND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE FULL BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-335 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.7% in Greece — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#145 in NY, #2,223 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Spencerport Central School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #248 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Terry Taylor Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 428 students, 28% FRL); A M Cosgrove Middle School (math 32% / reading 53%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 844 students, 39% FRL); Spencerport High School (math 95% / reading 96%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,142 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $250k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $190,749 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-61,743
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-80,745
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14468

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$475 /mo · $5,703/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,393

Max offer price $190,749

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-194	-5% $-265	+0% $-335	+5% $-406	+10% $-477
Rent	-10% $-491	-5% $-413	+0% $-335	+5% $-258	+10% $-180
Rate	-1.0pp $-210	-0.5pp $-272	base $-335	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Lianne Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1281	$2,650	$2.07	4d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-15
   listed $250,000 Active
4. 2016-02-19
   soldstatus $105,000
5. 2016-02-18
   soldstatus $114,900 Closed Sale or Rented 622-char remark

   Show marketing remark (622 chars)

   Well Built 1954 Ranch is Updated & Fresh! Beautiful Modern kitchen has ceramic tile floor, raised oak kitchen cabinets, plenty counter top space plus stainless steal appliances remain! Formal dining room, spacious living room w/ double doors that open to large 2 tier deck, master bedroom includes bath, vaulted ceiling & walk-in closet, crawl space attic has convenient pull down staircase, Home is freshly painted, has wonderful private back yard, extra wide blacktop driveway, 2 car attached garage, mature yard & landscaping plus small pond. Spencerport Schools & minutes Greece shopping plazas

6. 2015-07-22
   status Pending Sale 622-char remark

   Show marketing remark (622 chars)

   Well Built 1954 Ranch is Updated & Fresh! Beautiful Modern kitchen has ceramic tile floor, raised oak kitchen cabinets, plenty counter top space plus stainless steal appliances remain! Formal dining room, spacious living room w/ double doors that open to large 2 tier deck, master bedroom includes bath, vaulted ceiling & walk-in closet, crawl space attic has convenient pull down staircase, Home is freshly painted, has wonderful private back yard, extra wide blacktop driveway, 2 car attached garage, mature yard & landscaping plus small pond. Spencerport Schools & minutes Greece shopping plazas

7. 2015-07-06
   listed $114,900 Active 622-char remark

   Show marketing remark (622 chars)

   Well Built 1954 Ranch is Updated & Fresh! Beautiful Modern kitchen has ceramic tile floor, raised oak kitchen cabinets, plenty counter top space plus stainless steal appliances remain! Formal dining room, spacious living room w/ double doors that open to large 2 tier deck, master bedroom includes bath, vaulted ceiling & walk-in closet, crawl space attic has convenient pull down staircase, Home is freshly painted, has wonderful private back yard, extra wide blacktop driveway, 2 car attached garage, mature yard & landscaping plus small pond. Spencerport Schools & minutes Greece shopping plazas

8. 2015-07-06
   historical

   Show marketing remark (622 chars)

   Well Built 1954 Ranch is Updated & Fresh! Beautiful Modern kitchen has ceramic tile floor, raised oak kitchen cabinets, plenty counter top space plus stainless steal appliances remain! Formal dining room, spacious living room w/ double doors that open to large 2 tier deck, master bedroom includes bath, vaulted ceiling & walk-in closet, crawl space attic has convenient pull down staircase, Home is freshly painted, has wonderful private back yard, extra wide blacktop driveway, 2 car attached garage, mature yard & landscaping plus small pond. Spencerport Schools & minutes Greece shopping plazas

9. 2014-12-22
   listed $114,900
10. 2014-12-22
    historical
11. 2014-08-05
    listed $114,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,703 · $475/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,703 · $475/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,703
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,388
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,013
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spencerport Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627780
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $66,920
• Composite: 50.58/100
• National rank: #1846
• State rank: #248 of 590 in NY

Livability — Greece

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #2223

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 29,210
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 18,526
• Household income: $98,693
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 391.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.39%
• Current HPI: 256.2599
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+117.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $250,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-18 Sold (MLS) $114,900 UNYREIS
• 2015-07-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2015-07-06 Listed $114,900 UNYREIS
• 2015-07-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2014-12-22 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2014-12-22 Listed $114,900 UNYREIS
• 2014-08-05 Listed $114,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,703 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.