159 E Church St · Coal City, IL 60416

$247,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1900 10,000 sqft lot $119/sqft · 15% below area Est $290k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Room for everyone! This home offers a versatile layout perfect for related living, extended family, guests, or multi generational living. Main level includes full kitchen, 2 bedrooms and 1.1 baths. The upper level features a full kitchen, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Coal City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#190 in IL, #3,602 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Coal City CUSD 1 (town): math 46% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #65 of 620 in IL (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coal City Early Childhood Center (413 students, 0% FRL); Coal City Middle School (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C+, #40 of 665 statewide, top 6%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Coal City High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #157 of 693 statewide, top 25%, 631 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 23% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 84 units permitted in Grundy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grundy County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $191,693 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,324
• List price: $247,000
• Delta: -14.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 E Church St	0.03mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,079 (-0%)	11mo	$137,500	$66	80
495 Trotter Dr	0.71mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,027 (-2%)	6mo	$271,000	$134	51
120 E Elm St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,311 (+11%)	6mo	$372,500	$161	48
981 S Foxgrove Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,041 (-2%)	20mo	$300,000	$147	39
100 W 1st St	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,316 (+11%)	18mo	$350,000	$151	38
380 E 2nd St	0.39mi	4/3.5 (-1)	1,800 (-14%)	16mo	$365,000	$203	35
170 W 1st St	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,384 (+15%)	18mo	$365,000	$153	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,518
• Equity at exit: $36,829

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-46,813
• Equity at exit: $21,356

Cash invested: $69,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60416

• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,422/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,025

Max offer price $231,865

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $-16	+0% $-86	+5% $-156	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-161	+0% $-86	+5% $-10	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-23	base $-86	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,750
• Closing costs: $7,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $247,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $247,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $247,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $247,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $247,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $247,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $247,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $247,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $247,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    price $250,000 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Room for everyone! This home offers a versatile layout perfect for related living, extended family, guests, or multi generational living. Main level includes full kitchen, 2 bedrooms and 1.1 baths. The upper level features a full kitchen, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths.

17. 2026-03-09
    status Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Room for everyone! This home offers a versatile layout perfect for related living, extended family, guests, or multi generational living. Main level includes full kitchen, 2 bedrooms and 1.1 baths. The upper level features a full kitchen, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths.

18. 2026-03-04
    historical Contingent - No Showings 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Room for everyone! This home offers a versatile layout perfect for related living, extended family, guests, or multi generational living. Main level includes full kitchen, 2 bedrooms and 1.1 baths. The upper level features a full kitchen, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths.

19. 2026-03-04
    listed $255,000 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Room for everyone! This home offers a versatile layout perfect for related living, extended family, guests, or multi generational living. Main level includes full kitchen, 2 bedrooms and 1.1 baths. The upper level features a full kitchen, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths.

20. 2009-09-30
    historical
21. 2009-07-21
    listed New
22. 2009-07-21
    historical
23. 2009-04-24
    price
24. 2009-01-24
    listed
25. 2008-11-06
    historical
26. 2008-05-05
    listed
27. 2008-04-26
    historical
28. 2007-10-27
    listed
29. 2007-09-04
    historical
30. 2007-03-04
    listed
31. 2006-01-19
    soldstatus $205,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,422 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,014 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,592/yr (+$133/mo · 65.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,836
• − Property taxes: −$2,422
• − Insurance: −$1,235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − Depreciation: −$7,185
• Taxable loss: −$5,356
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,285
• After-tax cash flow: $257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coal City CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1710530
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,347
• Composite: 42.77/100
• National rank: #3151
• State rank: #65 of 620 in IL

Livability — Coal City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #190
• US rank: #3602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coal City, IL
• City population: 9,277
• Population (ZIP): 9,277

Population outlook (Grundy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,716 people
• By 2030: 50,218 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 48,599 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 46,212 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 40,033 · -21.1%
• By 2100: 32,966 · -35.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Iranian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Grundy

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.6) · D 34.5% · R 64.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -29.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.6 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+23.6 2012: R+9.0 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.40%
• Current HPI: 154.913
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+22.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $250,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $255,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-30 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-21 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-21 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-24 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-24 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-05 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-26 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-27 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-04 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-04 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,422 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.