3209 E Brinkley · Anderson Creek, NC 28390

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1968 10,019 sqft lot Est $175k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Take a look at this well kept home that feels comfortable and easy to live in from the moment you step on the front porch that's perfect for morning coffee, evening conversations or simply relaxing. Tucked into a quiet neighborhood, it offers a nice balance of privacy while being close to a lot of places. Inside you'll find a bright, open feel with plenty of natural light and a traditional layout that makes sense. The kitchen has plenty of cabinet and counter space and the large laundry room offers additional a storage/pantry area. All the bedrooms are a good size and the garage has been converted to create a 4th room!! Both updated bathrooms offer enough space for comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Natural light
• Converted garage

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• CONVERTED GARAGE
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Two-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Lot size approximately 0.23 acres; Public maintained road access; Road surfaces include asphalt and concrete

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl and other
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl and other flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.5% in Anderson Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William T Brown Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,033 of 1,410 statewide, top 76%, 598 students, 100% FRL); Spring Lake Middle (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #406 of 475 statewide, top 86%, 512 students, 99% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $175k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,612 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,720
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2801 Murro St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,131 (+4%)	1mo	$200,000	$177	85
226 Lakeview Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,034 (-5%)	2mo	$215,000	$208	62
1425 E Manchester Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,252 (+15%)	3mo	$200,000	$160	60
2802 E Brinkley Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+1%)	20mo	$165,500	$150	58
2720 Edwards Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	996 (-9%)	6mo	$180,000	$181	57
2101 W Brinkley Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,194 (+9%)	4mo	$170,000	$142	56
2719 Edwards Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+9%)	21mo	$152,900	$129	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,299
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,008
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28390

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,218/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2712 Heatter Ave Spring Lake, NC	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	21d	1	0.49mi
2721 Daly Ave Spring Lake, NC	3.0	1.0	925	$1,195	$1.29	23d	1	0.55mi
1166 Pine Knoll Dr Spring Lake, NC	3.0	1.0–3.0	987	$1,560	$1.58	14d	29	1.12mi
801 Shell Dr Spring Lake, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$2,025	$1.69	14d	41	1.36mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2004-07-21
   soldstatus $54,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,218 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,218
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$312
• After-tax cash flow: $1,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Anderson Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 24,158
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $62,972
• Rent vs Own: 50.7% rent · 49.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.43%
• Current HPI: 207.9349
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+221.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $175,000 TMLS
• 2004-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,218 · +58.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.