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3740 E Jaguar Ave
D- Composite 39.23
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Appreciation +9.2/10.0
  • ARV discount +8.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.0/30.0
  • Schools +4.8/10.0
  • Livability +4.4/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.6/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +0.4/10.0
  • DSCR +0.4/10.0

$595,000

3740 E Jaguar Ave · Gilbert, AZ 85298
3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market
Built 2005 7,807 sqft lot $288/sqft · at area comps Est $602k · at est. $103/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Price Improved! This is the kind of home that just feels right the moment you walk in. Located in the sought-after Seville community, this 3 bed + den, 2 bath home offers over 2,000 sq ft with a layout that simply works. The open design creates an easy flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas-ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private sitting area, perfect for a home office or quiet retreat. Step outside to a backyard built for Arizona living with a heated pool and space to relax or host. With mountain views and a prime Gilbert location, this home delivers comfort, lifestyle, and value-plus the peace of mind of a new AC unit and a fully redone pool with heater already in place. The backyard is calling you, don't let this one pass you by!

Key facts

  • Stunning pool
  • Mountain views
  • 7,807 sq ft lot

Tags

PRIVATE BACKYARD OASISSTUNNING POOLMOUNTAIN VIEWS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 3.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $595k.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $395k (33.6% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (45.7% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $323k (45.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
  • Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • In year one you build about $54k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
  • Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
  • Current owner paid $330k; list at $595k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $323,142 (45.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.54%
Cap rate
4.01%
Cash-on-cash
-8.14%
DSCR
0.64
GRM
15.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$602,081
List price
$595,000
Delta
-1.18%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
7048 S View Ln 0.04mi 3/2.0 2,064 (0%) 5mo $585,000 $283 90
3716 E Andre Ave 0.10mi 3/2.0 2,097 (+2%) 7mo $595,000 $284 83
7137 S Fawn Ave 0.24mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,039 (-1%) 4mo $590,000 $289 77
17613 E Mews Rd 0.58mi 4/2.0 (+1) 2,050 (-1%) 0mo $649,000 $317 62
3554 E Ravenswood Dr 0.27mi 3/2.0 1,777 (-14%) 0mo $571,500 $322 60
4185 E Killarney St 0.68mi 3/3.0 2,020 (-2%) 6mo $542,500 $269 60
3504 E Ravenswood Dr 0.32mi 3/2.0 1,777 (-14%) 2mo $575,000 $324 56
3541 E Ravenswood Dr 0.29mi 3/2.0 1,777 (-14%) 4mo $535,000 $301 56
3295 E Castanets Dr 0.73mi 4/2.0 (+1) 2,064 (0%) 4mo $560,000 $271 54
3319 E Fandango Dr 0.64mi 3/2.5 2,290 (+11%) 3mo $589,000 $257 48
6823 S Pinehurst Dr 0.56mi 2/2.5 (-1) 1,764 (-14%) 1mo $485,000 $275 42
6762 S St Andrews Way 0.58mi 3/2.0 1,764 (-14%) 7mo $535,000 $303 39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
15.1%
Equity multiple
2.15×
Total profit
$191,109
Equity at exit
$466,807
10-year hold
IRR
15.0%
Equity multiple
4.71×
Total profit
$617,797
Equity at exit
$941,060

Cash invested: $166,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

ZIP-level market 85298

Home prices YoY
2.5%
Rents YoY
4.3%
Active inventory
329
Price-to-rent
15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$3,231 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$3,120
Tax from tax record
$212 /mo · $2,542/yr
Insurance
$248
HOA
$103
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$679
Net cashflow
$-1,130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,662
Max offer price $395,353
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-793 -5% $-962 +0% $-1,130 +5% $-1,299 +10% $-1,467
Rent -10% $-1,385 -5% $-1,258 +0% $-1,130 +5% $-1,003 +10% $-875
Rate -1.0pp $-831 -0.5pp $-979 base $-1,130 +0.5pp $-1,284 +1.0pp $-1,441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$148,750
Closing costs
$17,850
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 28 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
6943 S View Ln Gilbert, AZ 4.0 3.0 2586 $2,445 $0.95 5d 1 0.16mi
3560 E Merlot St Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 1777 $4,750 $2.67 44d 1 0.22mi
4155 E Clubview Dr Gilbert, AZ 4.0 2.0 2064 $2,600 $1.26 5d 1 0.54mi
4176 E Clubview Dr Gilbert, AZ 4.0 2.0 2740 $6,500 $2.37 4d 1 0.58mi
4176 E Clubview Dr Gilbert, AZ 4.0 2.0 2740 $5,200 $1.90 5d 1 0.58mi
3725 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 1404 $2,750 $1.96 25d 1 0.64mi
6686 S St Andrews Way Gilbert, AZ 2.0 2.5 1764 $5,100 $2.89 44d 1 0.68mi
3147 E Vallejo Dr Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 2171 $2,350 $1.08 17d 1 0.74mi
3570 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ 4.0 3.0 2536 $3,200 $1.26 3d 1 0.75mi
6851 S Birdie Way Gilbert, AZ 4.0 3.0 2591 $2,995 $1.16 5d 1 0.76mi
6659 S Cartier Dr Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 1665 $2,300 $1.38 18d 1 0.82mi
3068 E Ravenswood Dr Gilbert, AZ 4.0 2.0 1815 $2,550 $1.40 13d 1 0.84mi
3808 E Flower Ct Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.5 1628 $2,095 $1.29 5d 1 0.86mi
6687 S Classic Way Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 2173 $4,300 $1.98 2d 1 0.86mi
6334 S Blake St Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 1421 $2,100 $1.48 44d 1 0.91mi
3868 E Palmer St Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.5 1899 $2,000 $1.05 44d 1 0.95mi
3440 E Flower St Gilbert, AZ 4.0 2.5 2943 $2,800 $0.95 25d 1 0.95mi
6770 S Tucana Ln Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 2070 $4,500 $2.17 25d 1 0.99mi
3067 E Palmdale Ln Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 1675 $2,300 $1.37 15d 1 1.00mi
3462 E Powell Way Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 1665 $2,295 $1.38 25d 1 1.12mi
3329 E Powell Ct Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 1486 $2,345 $1.58 15d 1 1.15mi
2971 E Ridgewood Ln Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 1675 $2,380 $1.42 44d 1 1.15mi
3486 E Anika Ct Gilbert, AZ 4.0 2.0 1749 $2,600 $1.49 44d 1 1.30mi
2751 E Mews Rd Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.5 2658 $2,799 $1.05 2d 1 1.32mi
2723 E Mews Rd Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 1759 $2,395 $1.36 3d 1 1.35mi
2723 E Mews Rd Gilbert, AZ 3.0 2.0 1759 $2,495 $1.42 19d 1 1.35mi
2756 E Hickory St Gilbert, AZ 4.0 2.5 2873 $2,995 $1.04 24d 1 1.41mi
2756 E Hickory St Gilbert, AZ 4.0 3.0 2873 $2,995 $1.04 22d 1 1.41mi

HOA detail

Monthly dues
$103 · $1,236/yr
Likely covers
pool

Listing history 16 events

  1. 2026-06-09
    days on market $595,000 Active 109 DOM
  2. 2026-06-08
    days on market $595,000 Active 108 DOM
  3. 2026-06-07
    days on market $595,000 Active 107 DOM
  4. 2026-06-04
    days on market $595,000 Active 104 DOM
  5. 2026-06-03
    days on market $595,000 Active 103 DOM
  6. 2026-06-02
    days on market $595,000 Active 102 DOM
  7. 2026-06-01
    days on market $595,000 Active 101 DOM
  8. 2026-05-31
    days on market $595,000 Active 100 DOM
  9. 2026-04-20
    price $595,000 800-char remark
    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Price Improved! This is the kind of home that just feels right the moment you walk in. Located in the sought-after Seville community, this 3 bed + den, 2 bath home offers over 2,000 sq ft with a layout that simply works. The open design creates an easy flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas-ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private sitting area, perfect for a home office or quiet retreat. Step outside to a backyard built for Arizona living with a heated pool and space to relax or host. With mountain views and a prime Gilbert location, this home delivers comfort, lifestyle, and value-plus the peace of mind of a new AC unit and a fully redone pool with heater already in place. The backyard is calling you, don't let this one pass you by!

  10. 2026-03-16
    price $599,000 800-char remark
    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Price Improved! This is the kind of home that just feels right the moment you walk in. Located in the sought-after Seville community, this 3 bed + den, 2 bath home offers over 2,000 sq ft with a layout that simply works. The open design creates an easy flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas-ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private sitting area, perfect for a home office or quiet retreat. Step outside to a backyard built for Arizona living with a heated pool and space to relax or host. With mountain views and a prime Gilbert location, this home delivers comfort, lifestyle, and value-plus the peace of mind of a new AC unit and a fully redone pool with heater already in place. The backyard is calling you, don't let this one pass you by!

  11. 2026-03-12
    price $605,000 800-char remark
    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Price Improved! This is the kind of home that just feels right the moment you walk in. Located in the sought-after Seville community, this 3 bed + den, 2 bath home offers over 2,000 sq ft with a layout that simply works. The open design creates an easy flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas-ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private sitting area, perfect for a home office or quiet retreat. Step outside to a backyard built for Arizona living with a heated pool and space to relax or host. With mountain views and a prime Gilbert location, this home delivers comfort, lifestyle, and value-plus the peace of mind of a new AC unit and a fully redone pool with heater already in place. The backyard is calling you, don't let this one pass you by!

  12. 2026-02-20
    listed $615,000 Active 800-char remark
    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Price Improved! This is the kind of home that just feels right the moment you walk in. Located in the sought-after Seville community, this 3 bed + den, 2 bath home offers over 2,000 sq ft with a layout that simply works. The open design creates an easy flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas-ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private sitting area, perfect for a home office or quiet retreat. Step outside to a backyard built for Arizona living with a heated pool and space to relax or host. With mountain views and a prime Gilbert location, this home delivers comfort, lifestyle, and value-plus the peace of mind of a new AC unit and a fully redone pool with heater already in place. The backyard is calling you, don't let this one pass you by!

  13. 2017-10-04
    soldstatus $330,000 Closed 722-char remark
    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    STUNNING SINGLE LEVEL HOME WITH A SPARKLING POOL - POPULAR FLOOR PLAN IN SEVILLE WITH A OPEN GREAT ROOM FUN FOR ENTERTAINING. WALK IN AND YOU WILL NOTICE THE TUCKED AWAY OFFICE DEN AREA UP FRONT THAT IS PERFECT FOR A STAY AT HOME WORKER OR EVEN A PLAYROOM. DOWN THE HALL YOU WILL SEE THE UPGRADED KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS AND A GAS COOK TOP STOVE WITH LOTS OF CABINET SPACE AS A PLUS. THIS HOME ALSO FEATURES A SPLIT FLOOR PLAN WITH THE MASTER BEDROOM IN THE BACK WITH A MASTER RETREAT THAT IS A EXTRA ROOM THAT CAN BE USED FOR MANY DIFFERENT THINGS. NICE FEATURES AND UPDATES THROUGHOUT HOME.MUST SEE IN SEVILLE - WALKING DISTANCE TO COMMUNITY SCHOOL AND THE PRIVATE CLUB THAT HAS OPTIONAL MEMBERSHIPS AVAILABLE

  14. 2017-10-04
    soldstatus $330,000
    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    STUNNING SINGLE LEVEL HOME WITH A SPARKLING POOL - POPULAR FLOOR PLAN IN SEVILLE WITH A OPEN GREAT ROOM FUN FOR ENTERTAINING. WALK IN AND YOU WILL NOTICE THE TUCKED AWAY OFFICE DEN AREA UP FRONT THAT IS PERFECT FOR A STAY AT HOME WORKER OR EVEN A PLAYROOM. DOWN THE HALL YOU WILL SEE THE UPGRADED KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS AND A GAS COOK TOP STOVE WITH LOTS OF CABINET SPACE AS A PLUS. THIS HOME ALSO FEATURES A SPLIT FLOOR PLAN WITH THE MASTER BEDROOM IN THE BACK WITH A MASTER RETREAT THAT IS A EXTRA ROOM THAT CAN BE USED FOR MANY DIFFERENT THINGS. NICE FEATURES AND UPDATES THROUGHOUT HOME.MUST SEE IN SEVILLE - WALKING DISTANCE TO COMMUNITY SCHOOL AND THE PRIVATE CLUB THAT HAS OPTIONAL MEMBERSHIPS AVAILABLE

  15. 2017-09-06
    status Pending 722-char remark
    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    STUNNING SINGLE LEVEL HOME WITH A SPARKLING POOL - POPULAR FLOOR PLAN IN SEVILLE WITH A OPEN GREAT ROOM FUN FOR ENTERTAINING. WALK IN AND YOU WILL NOTICE THE TUCKED AWAY OFFICE DEN AREA UP FRONT THAT IS PERFECT FOR A STAY AT HOME WORKER OR EVEN A PLAYROOM. DOWN THE HALL YOU WILL SEE THE UPGRADED KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS AND A GAS COOK TOP STOVE WITH LOTS OF CABINET SPACE AS A PLUS. THIS HOME ALSO FEATURES A SPLIT FLOOR PLAN WITH THE MASTER BEDROOM IN THE BACK WITH A MASTER RETREAT THAT IS A EXTRA ROOM THAT CAN BE USED FOR MANY DIFFERENT THINGS. NICE FEATURES AND UPDATES THROUGHOUT HOME.MUST SEE IN SEVILLE - WALKING DISTANCE TO COMMUNITY SCHOOL AND THE PRIVATE CLUB THAT HAS OPTIONAL MEMBERSHIPS AVAILABLE

  16. 2017-08-23
    listed $339,900 Active 722-char remark
    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    STUNNING SINGLE LEVEL HOME WITH A SPARKLING POOL - POPULAR FLOOR PLAN IN SEVILLE WITH A OPEN GREAT ROOM FUN FOR ENTERTAINING. WALK IN AND YOU WILL NOTICE THE TUCKED AWAY OFFICE DEN AREA UP FRONT THAT IS PERFECT FOR A STAY AT HOME WORKER OR EVEN A PLAYROOM. DOWN THE HALL YOU WILL SEE THE UPGRADED KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS AND A GAS COOK TOP STOVE WITH LOTS OF CABINET SPACE AS A PLUS. THIS HOME ALSO FEATURES A SPLIT FLOOR PLAN WITH THE MASTER BEDROOM IN THE BACK WITH A MASTER RETREAT THAT IS A EXTRA ROOM THAT CAN BE USED FOR MANY DIFFERENT THINGS. NICE FEATURES AND UPDATES THROUGHOUT HOME.MUST SEE IN SEVILLE - WALKING DISTANCE TO COMMUNITY SCHOOL AND THE PRIVATE CLUB THAT HAS OPTIONAL MEMBERSHIPS AVAILABLE

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$2,542 · $212/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$3,927 · $327/mo
Expected delta
+$1,385/yr (+$115/mo · 54.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$38,777
− Mortgage interest
−$33,329
− Property taxes
−$2,542
− Insurance
−$2,975
− Repairs & maintenance
−$3,102
− Management
−$3,102
− HOA
−$1,236
− Depreciation
−$17,309
Taxable loss
−$24,818
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$5,956
After-tax cash flow
$-7,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

District
Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
NCES district ID
0401870
Math proficiency
49% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency
57% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$74,048
Composite
47.54/100
National rank
#2268
State rank
#31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

Score
87/100
State rank
#1
US rank
#240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Gilbert, AZ
County
Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
City population
281,769
Metro
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Population (ZIP)
44,114
Household income
$156,425
Rent vs Own
8.9% rent · 91.1% own
Severe rent burden
173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
4,979,203 people
By 2030
5,378,229 · +8.0%
By 2040
6,156,598 · +23.6%
By 2050
6,872,376 · +38.0%
By 2075
8,401,270 · +68.7%
By 2100
9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (72%)
Race & ethnicity
White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 10%
Common ancestry
Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
Foreign-born
9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home
85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing
+7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Market trends

HPI YoY
▲ 8.36%
Current HPI
343.6932
Rent YoY
▲ 4.31%
Metro
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
State GDP YoY
▲ 4.54%
F500 in state
20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry F500 HQs Revenue

Price history

+75.1% since first listed
8 events — show timeline
  • 2026-04-20 Price Changed $595,000 ARMLS
  • 2026-03-16 Price Changed $599,000 ARMLS
  • 2026-03-12 Price Changed $605,000 ARMLS
  • 2026-02-20 Listed $615,000 ARMLS
  • 2017-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
  • 2017-10-04 Sold (MLS) $330,000 ARMLS
  • 2017-09-06 Pending ARMLS
  • 2017-08-23 Listed $339,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,542 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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