Is 513 Mccarter Rd Unit 4M in Gatlinburg, TN a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.4% cap rate and $-1,038/mo modeled cash flow at a $425,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 513 Mccarter Rd Unit 4M?

The modeled cap rate is 3.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,783/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 32.63

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +13.7/15.0
Cash flow +4.8/30.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
Schools +2.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$425,000

513 Mccarter Rd Unit 4M · Gatlinburg, TN 37738

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · Condo · 34 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $318/sqft · 14% below area Est $493k · 14% under $300/mo HOA · 11% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Location Location Location. Appropriately named The Heart of Gatlinburg!. This walk to the Parkway 2/2 Luxury Gatlinburg condo is a limited opportunity with only 8 units so they don't come up for sale very often. The unit is facing the direction of the parkway and you have the whole level on this side of the building. The balconies are amazing. Beautiful interior and furnishings make this unit a winner for the person that wants to own an amazing property to use, as well as a come and park kind of vacation experience for all your guests and renters. ..

Key facts

Heart of gatlinburg
Amazing balconies
Walk to the parkway

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $425k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (35.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (34.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $275k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 1.5% in Gatlinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 73/100 on livability (#27 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment D-.
Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: New Center Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #415 of 952 statewide, top 44%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Seymour Junior High (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 766 students, 0% FRL); Sevier County High School (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 1,248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: 1075 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $2,783/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $74k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $224k; list at $425k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,772 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 3.36%
Cash-on-cash: -10.47%
DSCR: 0.53
GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $492,672
List price: $425,000
Delta: -8.86%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Woliss Ln #308	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,224 (-8%)	2mo	$420,000	$343	63
709 Spring Dr	1.03mi	2/2.0	1,336 (-0%)	5mo	$589,900	$442	60
215 Woliss Ln #406	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,224 (-8%)	5mo	$485,000	$396	60
824 Eagle Cove Way	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,048 (-22%)	8mo	$475,000	$453	58
817 Eagle Cove Way	0.20mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,046 (-22%)	1mo	$485,000	$464	58
223 Chimney Tops Way	1.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	1mo	$530,000	$425	53
855 Campbell Lead Rd Unit 307	1.05mi	2/2.0	1,434 (+7%)	1mo	$765,000	$533	52
536 Forest Springs Dr Dr	1.12mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,267 (-5%)	4mo	$410,000	$324	48
215 Ski Mtn. Rd. Rd #103	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,113 (-17%)	3mo	$500,000	$449	47
260 Roaring Fork Rd #224	1.38mi	2/2.0	1,064 (-20%)	2mo	$240,000	$226	39
1435 Wiley Oakley Dr #173	1.42mi	2/2.0	1,078 (-19%)	4mo	$329,000	$305	37
658 Red Bud Ln	1.34mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-19%)	5mo	$390,000	$361	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -35.1%
Equity multiple: -0.13×
Total profit: $-134,765
Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

IRR: -45.9%
Equity multiple: -0.69×
Total profit: $-201,575
Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37738

Home prices YoY: -28.5%
Active inventory: 1075
Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,783 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,375/yr
Insurance: −$177
HOA: −$300
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
Net cashflow: $-1,038

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,098

Max offer price $274,772

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-744	-5% $-891	+0% $-1,038	+5% $-1,185	+10% $-1,332
Rent	-10% $-1,258	-5% $-1,148	+0% $-1,038	+5% $-928	+10% $-818
Rate	-1.0pp $-824	-0.5pp $-930	base $-1,038	+0.5pp $-1,148	+1.0pp $-1,260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $106,250
Closing costs: $12,750
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
234 Circle Dr Unit 2205 Gatlinburg, TN	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,725	$1.68	0d	1	0.35mi
234 Circle Dr Unit 1206 Gatlinburg, TN	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,700	$1.65	0d	1	0.37mi
327 E Holly Ridge Rd Gatlinburg, TN	3.0	3.0	1657	$4,995	$3.01	119d	1	0.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Directions: Into Gatlinburg, left on Airport Road at the space needle, then left onto McCarter Rd.; second building on the right.
HOA & community: Condominium common interestHOA fee $300 monthly

Exterior

Parking: No dedicated parking listed
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerWater available
Home design: Attached condominiumThree or more levels
Exterior features: Has viewLot measures approximately 0.27 acres (calculated from plat)

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCooling (type: Other)
Interior features: Gas fireplaces (2)Has heatingHas coolingHeat pump
Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $300/mo · $3,600/yr condo

Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $425,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $425,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $425,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $425,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $425,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $425,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $425,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $425,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $425,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-09-13

remarks 623-char remark
2026-09-13

price $425,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $449,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $449,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $449,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $449,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $449,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $449,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $449,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $449,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $449,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $449,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $449,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $449,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $449,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $449,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $449,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-20

days on marketlisting id $449,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $449,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $449,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $449,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $449,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $449,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $449,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $449,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $449,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $449,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $449,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $449,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $449,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $449,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $449,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $449,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $449,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $449,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $449,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $449,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $449,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $449,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $449,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $449,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 2/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $33,401
− Mortgage interest: −$23,807
− Property taxes: −$6,375
− Insurance: −$2,125
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,672
− Management: −$2,672
− HOA: −$3,600
− Depreciation: −$12,364
Taxable loss: −$20,214

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,851
After-tax cash flow: $-7,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,685–$20,055 screening

This well-maintained and updated condo is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great location and potential for further value through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
Both Updating the kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pi Beta Phi Elementary F TN #496/952 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Sevierville Middle School F TN #116/333 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Gatlinburg Pittman High F TN #117/332 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Sevier County
NCES district ID: 4703780
Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $42,730
Composite: 25.12/100
National rank: #7527
State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Gatlinburg

Score: 73/100
State rank: #27
US rank: #5524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Gatlinburg, TN
County: Sevier · 107,903 people
Population (ZIP): 5,269
Household income: $63,133
Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 107,903 people
By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 5% Romanian 3%
Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
Current HPI: 296.203
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Healthcare	3	$91B
#61 HCA Healthcare Nashville $70.6B #287 Community Health Systems Franklin $12.4B #445 Envision Healthcare Nashville $7.8B
Retail	3	$72B
#110 Dollar General Goodlettsville $38.7B #181 AutoZone Memphis $18.5B #253 Tractor Supply Brentwood $14.9B
Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
#49 FedEx Memphis $87.7B
Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
#172 International Paper Memphis $19.4B
Insurance	1	$13B
#238 Unum Group Chattanooga $13.0B
Energy	1	$12B
#458 Delek US Holdings Brentwood $11.7B

Price history

+142.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

2026-06-05 Price Changed $449,000 GSMAR
2026-06-05 Price Changed $449,000 Knoxville MLS
2026-04-06 Listed $499,000 Knoxville MLS
2026-04-02 Listed $499,000 GSMAR
2026-04-02 Listed $449,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2018-11-30 Sold (MLS) $223,900 GSMAR
2015-12-11 Sold (MLS) $174,500 TVRMLS
2014-04-25 Listed $185,000 TVRMLS
2012-11-14 Listed $184,900 GSMAR

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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