695 Castle Ct · Three Creeks, MO 63357

$199,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,866 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1992 9,387 sqft lot $197/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

With a little TLC, you can have a wonderful 2 story home with 4+bedroom, 3 bath home and more potential living space in LL with walk out. Main Level has a large Pantry that could make a laundry room instead of LL. Great room with high ceiling and lots of daylights, Door to large L-shaped deck off Great room and Breakfast area, Kirchen and Breakfast area are open to each other. 2 bedrooms on main level with hall bath between. Upstairs is Primary Suite and a bedroom/office. LL is unfished wxcept has Full and a laundry area, GEO thermal HVAC. Wooded lot. Property is being SOLD AS IS. .. . A gated community must have an agent meet you to get in.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Wooded lot
• L shaped deck

Tags

• LARGE PANTRY
• L SHAPED DECK
• GATED COMMUNITY
• WOODED LOT
• GEOTHERMAL HVAC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Part of Lake Sherwood HOA; Annual association fee; Community amenities include beach access, clubhouse, common grounds, lake, marina, playground, pool, security, and gated entry; Association fee covers clubhouse, common area maintenance, pool maintenance, recreational facilities, security and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (approx. 23 x 19)
• Security: Gated community; Security gate; Security guard
• Utilities: Community water; Public sewer; Single-phase electric; Electricity, sewer and water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Three or more levels; Private ownership; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Year built (assessor source)
• Exterior features: Deck; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; 2 main-level bedrooms; 2 upper-level bedrooms; 1 lower-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms total; 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Geothermal heating and cooling; Central air
• Interior features: Great room; Full basement with walk-out access; Walk-in pantry; Mud room; Water softener; Concrete perimeter foundation; Basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in bathroom; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($474/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#993 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Washington (town): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #46 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marthasville Elementary (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 181 students, 37% FRL); Washington Middle (math 43% / reading 54%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 551 students, 31% FRL); Washington High School (math 29% / reading 73%, grade D+, #109 of 521 statewide, top 21%, 1,322 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 424 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (126 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $190,135 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,647
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,240
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63357

• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,669/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$197
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,851

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $96	+0% $40	+5% $-17	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $-36	+0% $40	+5% $115	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $90	base $40	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $197 · $2,364/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 650-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,669 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$262/yr (+$22/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,669
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − HOA: −$2,364
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$672
• After-tax cash flow: $1,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington
• NCES district ID: 2931110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,344
• Composite: 41.87/100
• National rank: #3372
• State rank: #46 of 324 in MO

Livability — Three Creeks

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #993
• US rank: #27272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,593

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,105 people
• By 2030: 35,605 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 36,047 · +2.7%
• By 2050: 35,479 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 33,325 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 28,282 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Asian 2% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.7% · R 74.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.9pp toward R · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+45.6 2012: R+26.8 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.39%
• Current HPI: 165.0027
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Listed $199,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,669 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.