653 Bartlett Ave · Baltimore, MD 21218

$199,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,685 sqft · Townhouse · 5 Days on market

Built 1920 Est $300k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors comes see this 3 bedroom 1 bathroom row home located in East Baltimore. This property will need some work. Please bring all offers cash and or hardmoney only. Property to be sold AS-IS. The property was recently rented out and has a current rental licenses.

Key facts

• New floors
• Spacious island
• Half bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT MAIN LEVEL
• NEW FLOORS
• HALF BATHROOM
• ACCENT WALLS
• GOOGLE NEST THERMOSTAT
• SPACIOUS ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership interest: ground rent; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions; Below-grade finished area present (finished lower level)
• Financial info: Ground rent applies (semi-annual payment)

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water; Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Home design: Interior townhouse / rowhouse; Three levels; Entry level is floor 2; Excellent condition; Year built (assessor) with major remodel effective 2025; Ground rent exists (paid semi-annually)
• Construction: Flat roof; Other foundation; Windows are double pane and energy efficient; Skylights
• Exterior features: Patio(s); Awning(s); Sidewalks; Street lights; Aluminum fencing; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Range/oven (gas); Stove; Range hood; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Icemaker; Water dispenser; Stainless steel appliances; Energy-efficient appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; One bedroom on the first lower level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate plank; Wood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floor plan with combination dining/living area; Breakfast area; Dining area; Kitchen island and eat-in kitchen; Recessed lighting; Skylights; Upgraded countertops; Wood and carpet flooring accents; Dry wall walls and ceilings; Double entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; High-efficiency water heater; Exhaust fan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $672 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $199k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.47%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,930
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2227 Cecil Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (+5%)	2mo	$195,000	$111	75
310 E 25th St	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,560 (-7%)	1mo	$308,999	$198	64
422 E Lanvale St	0.52mi	4/3.0	1,566 (-7%)	1mo	$280,000	$179	62
326 E 26th St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-11%)	2mo	$170,000	$114	56
435 Ilchester Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,531 (-9%)	2mo	$123,000	$80	54
2701 Guilford Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,862 (+10%)	2mo	$331,000	$178	50
3009 Guilford Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,598 (-5%)	2mo	$416,500	$261	49
1821 N Bond St	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,800 (+7%)	4mo	$245,000	$136	46
1433 E Federal St	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,814 (+8%)	2mo	$181,900	$100	46
3045 Guilford Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,532 (-9%)	0mo	$310,000	$202	42
3043 Guilford Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,532 (-9%)	0mo	$275,000	$180	41
3035 Frisby St	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,456 (-14%)	4mo	$163,000	$112	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,279
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $48,404
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21218

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,333 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $540/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $672

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $784	-5% $728	+0% $672	+5% $616	+10% $559
Rent	-10% $487	-5% $580	+0% $672	+5% $764	+10% $856
Rate	-1.0pp $772	-0.5pp $722	base $672	+0.5pp $620	+1.0pp $568

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
534 E 23rd St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,350	$1.38	44d	1	0.08mi
719 E 20th St Baltimore, MD	5.0	3.0	2060	$2,400	$1.17	2d	1	0.25mi
719 E 20th St Baltimore, MD	5.0	3.5	2060	$3,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.25mi
324 E 23rd St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	2018	$2,200	$1.09	24d	1	0.26mi
450 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	44d	1	0.32mi
312 E 25th St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1960	$2,800	$1.43	44d	1	0.33mi
411 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,200	$1.64	24d	1	0.34mi
428 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,875	$1.40	24d	1	0.34mi
428 E Lorraine Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,875	$1.40	44d	1	0.34mi
400 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	21d	1	0.36mi
519 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	5d	1	0.41mi
1827 Guilford Ave Unit G-1809 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1920	$2,750	$1.43	24d	1	0.46mi
1823 Guilford Ave Unit G-1823 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1920	$2,750	$1.43	44d	1	0.47mi
1813 Guilford Ave Unit G-1813 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1920	$2,750	$1.43	44d	1	0.47mi
420 E 28th St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	5.0	2.5	1600	$2,600	$1.62	5d	1	0.48mi
1809 Guilford Ave Unit G-1809 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1920	$2,750	$1.43	44d	1	0.48mi
1807 Guilford Ave Unit G-1807 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1920	$2,750	$1.43	44d	1	0.48mi
1333 E North Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1860	$2,200	$1.18	24d	1	0.49mi
402 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1436	$2,200	$1.53	44d	1	0.49mi
1801 Guilford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1921	$2,595	$1.35	24d	3	0.49mi
412 E Lanvale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,100	$1.94	5d	1	0.50mi
424 Ilchester Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1976	$1,800	$0.91	15d	1	0.51mi
7 W 24th St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	5.0	2.5	1443	$2,395	$1.66	21d	1	0.56mi
1243 E Lanvale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1281	$1,750	$1.37	3d	1	0.57mi
1243 E Lanvale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1281	$1,750	$1.37	17d	1	0.57mi
1607 Cliftview Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,475	$1.23	44d	1	0.61mi
1512 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1476	$1,950	$1.32	44d	1	0.62mi
1514 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1215	$2,000	$1.65	24d	1	0.63mi
1511 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1988	$2,650	$1.33	5d	1	0.64mi
3010 Guilford Ave Baltimore, MD	5.0	2.5	2174	$3,980	$1.83	11d	1	0.71mi
616 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	11d	1	0.71mi
2641 N Howard St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1344	$2,800	$2.08	24d	1	0.74mi
908 E Preston St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,300	$0.83	44d	1	0.76mi
325 W Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1470	$3,150	$2.14	5d	1	0.79mi
1539 Abbotston St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,995	$1.11	44d	1	0.80mi
1539 Abbotston St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,899	$1.00	5d	1	0.80mi
814 Showell Ct Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$2,000	$1.74	22d	1	0.81mi
103 E Mt Royal Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,624	$3.09	2d	17	0.82mi
3222 Ellerslie Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1550	$1,950	$1.26	44d	1	0.82mi
1814 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	24d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 687-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $199,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $540 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,355 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$814/yr (+$68/mo · 150.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$540
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,240
• − Management: −$2,240
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $5,049
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,212
• After-tax cash flow: $6,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 44,014
• Household income: $62,488
• Rent vs Own: 51.9% rent · 48.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2564.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -463.14%
• Current HPI: 292.3986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+43.2% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $209,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-31 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $219,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $224,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $229,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-02 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-11 Sold (MLS) $62,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $79,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-03 Listed $89,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-04 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MRIS
• 2009-09-04 Sold (MLS) $40,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-07-29 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-11-25 Price Changed $49,900 MRIS
• 2008-11-11 Price Changed $54,900 MRIS
• 2008-10-14 Relisted — MRIS
• 2008-10-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-10-13 Listed $59,900 MRIS
• 2008-10-13 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-10-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-08-24 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-08-24 Listed — MRIS
• 2008-07-11 Listed — MRIS
• 2006-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $44,625 Public Records
• 1997-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $540 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.