Harvest Ridge 3007 Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$362,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,007 sqft · SingleFamily · 789 Days on market

↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Harvest Ridge, Elgin's most prestigious and award-winning master-planned community, where thoughtful design and true community spirit come together. With new homes starting in the $180s and options ranging from 2 to 5 bedrooms, there’s something here for every stage of life. Built around the idea that a neighborhood should be more than just a place to live, Harvest Ridge is designed to foster connection-with inviting front porches that encourage conversation, and a wide range of amenities that bring people together. Spend your days enjoying the resort-style pool, fishing ponds, playscapes, event lawns, food trucks, coffee bar, basketball and sports fields, and more. A full-time Lifestyle Director ensures there's always something happening, from seasonal festivals to family movie nights. Located just east of Austin near Highway 290, and now home to a brand-new onsite elementary school, Harvest Ridge offers the perfect balance of small-town charm and modern convenience. It's more than a neighborhood-it's a community built for belonging.

Key facts

• Resort-style pool
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 789 days

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• ONSITE LIFESTYLE DIRECTOR

🏗️ New construction. The $362,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $399,751.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $363k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-932 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (27.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (36.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 789 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $231,729 (36.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 789 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.99%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,751
• List price: $362,990
• Delta: -9.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
134 Bluestem Dr	0.31mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,595 (-14%)	11mo	$334,091	$129	49
100 Blanco Woods Blvd	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,682 (-11%)	10mo	$295,000	$110	41
134 Lavender Ln	0.27mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,595 (-14%)	22mo	$390,210	$150	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $158,675
• Equity at exit: $360,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $514,589
• Equity at exit: $776,628

Cash invested: $111,930 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,317 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,096
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $5,996/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-932

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,497

Max offer price $264,899

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-656	-5% $-794	+0% $-932	+5% $-1,070	+10% $-1,208
Rent	-10% $-1,115	-5% $-1,023	+0% $-932	+5% $-840	+10% $-749
Rate	-1.0pp $-731	-0.5pp $-830	base $-932	+0.5pp $-1,036	+1.0pp $-1,141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,938
• Closing costs: $11,993
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	45d	1	0.15mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	6d	1	0.30mi
19024 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,995	$0.78	45d	1	0.33mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	0d	1	0.35mi
18741 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,980	$0.78	25d	1	0.42mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	25d	1	0.58mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	45d	1	0.58mi
18501 Spotted Eagle Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	3.5	2891	$2,800	$0.97	5d	1	0.65mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	4d	1	0.67mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	45d	1	0.68mi
17001 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,945	$0.77	22d	1	0.82mi
17041 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,370	$0.93	5d	1	0.85mi
18408 Cloudmore Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,150	$0.89	0d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $362,990 Active 789 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $362,990 Active 786 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $362,990 Active 785 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $362,990 Active 784 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $362,990 Active 783 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $362,990 Active 781 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $362,990 Active 777 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $362,990 Active 776 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $362,990 Active 775 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $362,990 Active 772 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $362,990 Active 771 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $362,990 Active 770 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $362,990 Active 769 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $362,990 Active 768 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $362,990 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1067 chars)

    Welcome to Harvest Ridge, Elgin's most prestigious and award-winning master-planned community, where thoughtful design and true community spirit come together. With new homes starting in the $180s and options ranging from 2 to 5 bedrooms, there’s something here for every stage of life. Built around the idea that a neighborhood should be more than just a place to live, Harvest Ridge is designed to foster connection-with inviting front porches that encourage conversation, and a wide range of amenities that bring people together. Spend your days enjoying the resort-style pool, fishing ponds, playscapes, event lawns, food trucks, coffee bar, basketball and sports fields, and more. A full-time Lifestyle Director ensures there's always something happening, from seasonal festivals to family movie nights. Located just east of Austin near Highway 290, and now home to a brand-new onsite elementary school, Harvest Ridge offers the perfect balance of small-town charm and modern convenience. It's more than a neighborhood-it's a community built for belonging.

16. 2025-09-19
    price $374,990 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1067 chars)

    Welcome to Harvest Ridge, Elgin's most prestigious and award-winning master-planned community, where thoughtful design and true community spirit come together. With new homes starting in the $180s and options ranging from 2 to 5 bedrooms, there’s something here for every stage of life. Built around the idea that a neighborhood should be more than just a place to live, Harvest Ridge is designed to foster connection-with inviting front porches that encourage conversation, and a wide range of amenities that bring people together. Spend your days enjoying the resort-style pool, fishing ponds, playscapes, event lawns, food trucks, coffee bar, basketball and sports fields, and more. A full-time Lifestyle Director ensures there's always something happening, from seasonal festivals to family movie nights. Located just east of Austin near Highway 290, and now home to a brand-new onsite elementary school, Harvest Ridge offers the perfect balance of small-town charm and modern convenience. It's more than a neighborhood-it's a community built for belonging.

17. 2024-04-23
    listed $409,990 Active 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1067 chars)

    Welcome to Harvest Ridge, Elgin's most prestigious and award-winning master-planned community, where thoughtful design and true community spirit come together. With new homes starting in the $180s and options ranging from 2 to 5 bedrooms, there’s something here for every stage of life. Built around the idea that a neighborhood should be more than just a place to live, Harvest Ridge is designed to foster connection-with inviting front porches that encourage conversation, and a wide range of amenities that bring people together. Spend your days enjoying the resort-style pool, fishing ponds, playscapes, event lawns, food trucks, coffee bar, basketball and sports fields, and more. A full-time Lifestyle Director ensures there's always something happening, from seasonal festivals to family movie nights. Located just east of Austin near Highway 290, and now home to a brand-new onsite elementary school, Harvest Ridge offers the perfect balance of small-town charm and modern convenience. It's more than a neighborhood-it's a community built for belonging.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,392
• − Property taxes: −$5,996
• − Insurance: −$1,999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,225
• − Management: −$2,225
• − Depreciation: −$11,629
• Taxable loss: −$18,658
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,478
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $362,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $374,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-23 Listed $409,990 Zillow