251 Patterson Rd Unit D32 · Haines City, FL 33844

$95,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1984 3,149 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FLORIDA LIFESTYLE at it's BEST located in a 55+community in the heart of CENTRAL FLORIDA and you OWN YOUR LAND. Property offers 1bed/1bath with nice size kitchen/living room/Florida room with inside workshop/storage area. Home sold FURNISHED WITH GOLF CART. Two car covered carport and separate outside storage shed. GATED Community with recreational building, solar heated POOL and many more amenities. Close to restaurants/shopping/medical/major highways to the Florida Park and Beaches. MLS#P4908581 Priced to sell. .$64,500 Call Susie today for your showing appt.

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Open floor plan
• Laminate flooring

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• FLORIDA ROOM
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED PARKING
• GOLF CART FRIENDLY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit located in a community with gate (gate code required for access)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee about $80.83, annual total $970); Association amenities include clubhouse, gated community, pool, and pickleball courts; Association fee covers pool, trash, private road, recreational facilities, and escrow reserves; Senior community; Dogs allowed; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Association recreation owned

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking pad; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; Southeast facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on estimated building area 956 square feet
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Screened porch; Patio/porch covered; Rain gutters; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate; Estimated living area 858 square feet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $95k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.23%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-1,757
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $10,105
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,602/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $951

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
251 Patterson Rd Unit C13 Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	532	$1,100	$2.07	23d	1	0.17mi
1131 Pomelo St Unit B Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	415	$1,350	$3.25	23d	1	1.32mi
1800 N 12th St Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $95,000
16. 2026-04-06
    price $109,000
17. 2026-03-13
    listed $119,000 Active
18. 2025-09-16
    historical
19. 2025-06-17
    price $139,999
20. 2025-02-07
    price $146,500
21. 2024-12-07
    price $150,000
22. 2024-09-11
    price $159,500
23. 2024-03-20
    status Active
24. 2024-02-27
    status Pending
25. 2024-02-19
    price $162,900
26. 2023-12-09
    price $164,900
27. 2023-11-30
    listed $169,900 Active
28. 2020-02-03
    soldstatus $61,500
29. 2020-01-31
    soldstatus $61,500 Sold 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    FLORIDA LIFESTYLE at it's BEST located in a 55+community in the heart of CENTRAL FLORIDA and you OWN YOUR LAND. Property offers 1bed/1bath with nice size kitchen/living room/Florida room with inside workshop/storage area. Home sold FURNISHED WITH GOLF CART. Two car covered carport and separate outside storage shed. GATED Community with recreational building, solar heated POOL and many more amenities. Close to restaurants/shopping/medical/major highways to the Florida Park and Beaches. MLS#P4908581 Priced to sell. .$64,500 Call Susie today for your showing appt.

30. 2019-11-21
    status Pending 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    FLORIDA LIFESTYLE at it's BEST located in a 55+community in the heart of CENTRAL FLORIDA and you OWN YOUR LAND. Property offers 1bed/1bath with nice size kitchen/living room/Florida room with inside workshop/storage area. Home sold FURNISHED WITH GOLF CART. Two car covered carport and separate outside storage shed. GATED Community with recreational building, solar heated POOL and many more amenities. Close to restaurants/shopping/medical/major highways to the Florida Park and Beaches. MLS#P4908581 Priced to sell. .$64,500 Call Susie today for your showing appt.

31. 2019-11-17
    listed $64,500 Active 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    FLORIDA LIFESTYLE at it's BEST located in a 55+community in the heart of CENTRAL FLORIDA and you OWN YOUR LAND. Property offers 1bed/1bath with nice size kitchen/living room/Florida room with inside workshop/storage area. Home sold FURNISHED WITH GOLF CART. Two car covered carport and separate outside storage shed. GATED Community with recreational building, solar heated POOL and many more amenities. Close to restaurants/shopping/medical/major highways to the Florida Park and Beaches. MLS#P4908581 Priced to sell. .$64,500 Call Susie today for your showing appt.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,602 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,602 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,602
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$394
• After-tax cash flow: $2,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+47.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $139,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $146,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-07 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $159,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-19 Price Changed $162,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-09 Price Changed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-30 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records
• 2020-01-31 Sold (MLS) $61,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-17 Listed $64,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+25.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,602 · +222.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.