17247 Osprey Forest Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$224,900

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,538 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2014 5,005 sqft lot $89/sqft · 10% below area Est $249k · 10% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New from LGI Homes: This beautiful new 2595 sq ft 2 story home features 5 bedrooms and 2 1/2 bathrooms. The kitchen features beatiful wood cabinets, electric stove, and black appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, vaulted ceiling, large master closet and utility room.

Key facts

• Utility room
• En-suite bathroom
• Versatile game room

Tags

• MASTER BEDROOM ON FIRST FLOOR
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• ELEGANT WOOD CABINETS
• SPACIOUS MASTER CLOSET
• UTILITY ROOM
• VERSATILE GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 2,538 square feet
• HOA & community: Member of Ranch Country Association/Montage; Annual association fee of $256; Community features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Additional driveway parking
• Security: No specific security systems listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Built in 2014; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding and wood siding exterior materials
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Mosquito system on patio/porch; Concrete road access; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry; Granite countertops; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15x11); Multiple bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 15x11, 15x10, 15x12, 15x11, 13x9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bath includes double vanity, soaking tub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity in bathrooms; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen open to family room; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality; Thermostat is energy-efficient
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room on second level (approx. 8x6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($800/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roberts Road El (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 976 students, 63% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,350
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -9.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24503 Bar Kay Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,601 (+2%)	3mo	$247,900	$95	85
17222 Osprey Landing Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,300 (-9%)	6mo	$249,990	$109	66
24519 Cypresspark Glen Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,280 (-10%)	1mo	$225,000	$99	62
17307 Osprey Forest Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (-15%)	16mo	$282,500	$131	56
17327 Osprey Forest Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (-15%)	15mo	$220,000	$102	54
17511 Lavender Blossom Ln	0.64mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,393 (-6%)	3mo	$412,990	$173	52
17523 Lavender Blossom Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,393 (-6%)	3mo	$412,990	$173	51
32038 Sweet Pea Meadows Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,647 (+4%)	2mo	$399,990	$151	49
32110 Sweet Pea Meadows Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,744 (+8%)	1mo	$472,600	$172	47
32034 Sweet Pea Meadows Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,744 (+8%)	2mo	$379,990	$138	44
32015 Sweet Pea Meadows Dr	0.75mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,744 (+8%)	5mo	$474,892	$173	41
17515 Lavender Blossom Ln	0.64mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,894 (+14%)	2mo	$450,990	$156	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-39,328
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-56,285
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$634 /mo · $7,605/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,440

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31938 Holland Arbor Trl Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,195	$1.13	44d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Pending 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Pending 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Pending 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Pending 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $224,900 Pending 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $224,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $224,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-05-08
    listed $224,900 Active 873-char remark
12. 2025-12-29
    historical
13. 2025-12-22
    price $220,000
14. 2025-12-18
    price $230,000
15. 2025-12-02
    price $240,000
16. 2025-11-24
    price $250,000
17. 2025-10-07
    listed $270,000 Active
18. 2025-04-08
    soldstatus
19. 2014-09-29
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    New from LGI Homes: This beautiful new 2595 sq ft 2 story home features 5 bedrooms and 2 1/2 bathrooms. The kitchen features beatiful wood cabinets, electric stove, and black appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, vaulted ceiling, large master closet and utility room.

20. 2014-09-29
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    New from LGI Homes: This beautiful new 2595 sq ft 2 story home features 5 bedrooms and 2 1/2 bathrooms. The kitchen features beatiful wood cabinets, electric stove, and black appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, vaulted ceiling, large master closet and utility room.

21. 2014-09-27
    historical

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    New from LGI Homes: This beautiful new 2595 sq ft 2 story home features 5 bedrooms and 2 1/2 bathrooms. The kitchen features beatiful wood cabinets, electric stove, and black appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, vaulted ceiling, large master closet and utility room.

22. 2014-09-26
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    New from LGI Homes: This beautiful new 2595 sq ft 2 story home features 5 bedrooms and 2 1/2 bathrooms. The kitchen features beatiful wood cabinets, electric stove, and black appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, vaulted ceiling, large master closet and utility room.

23. 2014-08-02
    historical

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    New from LGI Homes: This beautiful new 2595 sq ft 2 story home features 5 bedrooms and 2 1/2 bathrooms. The kitchen features beatiful wood cabinets, electric stove, and black appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, vaulted ceiling, large master closet and utility room.

24. 2014-07-25
    listed $182,900

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    New from LGI Homes: This beautiful new 2595 sq ft 2 story home features 5 bedrooms and 2 1/2 bathrooms. The kitchen features beatiful wood cabinets, electric stove, and black appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, vaulted ceiling, large master closet and utility room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,605 · $634/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,605 · $634/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$7,605
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$2,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$641
• After-tax cash flow: $1,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+23.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-09-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-09-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-09-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-09-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-08-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-07-25 Listed $182,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,605 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.