11677 Lazy Oak Creek Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$256,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $163/sqft · at area comps Est $260k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-874/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $72k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,771 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,740
• List price: $256,990
• Delta: -1.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11677 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,572 (0%)	0mo	$256,990	$163	100
11681 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+4%)	0mo	$266,990	$163	93
11688 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+4%)	1mo	$262,490	$161	88
11998 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+2%)	1mo	$232,040	$144	88
12010 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-10%)	1mo	$213,040	$151	80
11995 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-10%)	1mo	$215,340	$152	79
11990 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-10%)	1mo	$224,990	$160	79
11987 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+2%)	1mo	$218,140	$136	75
11708 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+11%)	1mo	$279,990	$160	70
11716 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+5%)	1mo	$238,990	$144	70
12039 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-10%)	0mo	$223,590	$158	68
11986 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-10%)	1mo	$222,440	$157	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $129,608
• Equity at exit: $231,517

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $374,951
• Equity at exit: $499,275

Cash invested: $71,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,348
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$321 /mo · $3,855/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,290

Max offer price $246,454

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,248
• Closing costs: $7,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	43d	1	0.39mi
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	43d	1	0.78mi
32626A Karen Dr Magnolia, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	43d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-08
   price $256,990 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-05-06
   status Active 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-17
   listed $266,990 Active 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,395
• − Property taxes: −$3,855
• − Insurance: −$1,285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,476
• Taxable loss: −$5,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,261
• After-tax cash flow: $387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home features a modern, open-concept floor plan with a good condition and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value enhancement through updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $256,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $266,990 HARMLS