131 Pataula Shores Cir · Fort Gaines, GA 39851

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2009 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this peaceful lakeside retreat nestled in the desirable Pataula Shores community. This inviting property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation, with serene surroundings and easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor entertaining. The home delivers comfort, privacy, and that true “away from it all” feel while still being just minutes from downtown Fort Gaines. With light TLC, this property has incredible potential to truly shine - allowing you to have a beautiful home with waterfront perks at a fraction of the price. Enjoy quiet mornings on the back porch while listening to the desirable sounds of nature.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 2009
• Listed 90 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Gaines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#573 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Clay County (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #174 of 187 in GA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 88% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.56%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $24,595
• Equity at exit: $36,896

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $69,281
• Equity at exit: $51,268

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39851

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $553/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $774

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-04-14
   price $99,900 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (650 chars)

   Welcome to this peaceful lakeside retreat nestled in the desirable Pataula Shores community. This inviting property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation, with serene surroundings and easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor entertaining. The home delivers comfort, privacy, and that true "away from it all" feel while still being just minutes from downtown Fort Gaines. With light TLC, this property has incredible potential to truly shine - allowing you to have a beautiful home with waterfront perks at a fraction of the price. Enjoy quiet mornings on the back porch while listening to the desirable sounds of nature.

5. 2026-04-14
   price $99,900 650-char remark

   Show marketing remark (650 chars)

   Welcome to this peaceful lakeside retreat nestled in the desirable Pataula Shores community. This inviting property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation, with serene surroundings and easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor entertaining. The home delivers comfort, privacy, and that true "away from it all" feel while still being just minutes from downtown Fort Gaines. With light TLC, this property has incredible potential to truly shine - allowing you to have a beautiful home with waterfront perks at a fraction of the price. Enjoy quiet mornings on the back porch while listening to the desirable sounds of nature.

6. 2026-04-06
   price $109,900 650-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Welcome to this peaceful lakeside retreat nestled in the desirable Pataula Shores community. This inviting property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation, with serene surroundings and easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor entertaining. The home delivers comfort, privacy, and that true “away from it all” feel while still being just minutes from downtown Fort Gaines. With light TLC, this property has incredible potential to truly shine - allowing you to have a beautiful home with waterfront perks at a fraction of the price. Enjoy quiet mornings on the back porch while listening to the desirable sounds of nature.

7. 2026-04-06
   price $109,900 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Welcome to this peaceful lakeside retreat nestled in the desirable Pataula Shores community. This inviting property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation, with serene surroundings and easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor entertaining. The home delivers comfort, privacy, and that true “away from it all” feel while still being just minutes from downtown Fort Gaines. With light TLC, this property has incredible potential to truly shine - allowing you to have a beautiful home with waterfront perks at a fraction of the price. Enjoy quiet mornings on the back porch while listening to the desirable sounds of nature.

8. 2026-03-30
   price $119,900 650-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Welcome to this peaceful lakeside retreat nestled in the desirable Pataula Shores community. This inviting property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation, with serene surroundings and easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor entertaining. The home delivers comfort, privacy, and that true “away from it all” feel while still being just minutes from downtown Fort Gaines. With light TLC, this property has incredible potential to truly shine - allowing you to have a beautiful home with waterfront perks at a fraction of the price. Enjoy quiet mornings on the back porch while listening to the desirable sounds of nature.

9. 2026-03-30
   price $119,900 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Welcome to this peaceful lakeside retreat nestled in the desirable Pataula Shores community. This inviting property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation, with serene surroundings and easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor entertaining. The home delivers comfort, privacy, and that true “away from it all” feel while still being just minutes from downtown Fort Gaines. With light TLC, this property has incredible potential to truly shine - allowing you to have a beautiful home with waterfront perks at a fraction of the price. Enjoy quiet mornings on the back porch while listening to the desirable sounds of nature.

10. 2026-03-03
    listed $129,900 New 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Welcome to this peaceful lakeside retreat nestled in the desirable Pataula Shores community. This inviting property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation, with serene surroundings and easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor entertaining. The home delivers comfort, privacy, and that true “away from it all” feel while still being just minutes from downtown Fort Gaines. With light TLC, this property has incredible potential to truly shine - allowing you to have a beautiful home with waterfront perks at a fraction of the price. Enjoy quiet mornings on the back porch while listening to the desirable sounds of nature.

11. 2026-03-03
    listed $129,900 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Welcome to this peaceful lakeside retreat nestled in the desirable Pataula Shores community. This inviting property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation, with serene surroundings and easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor entertaining. The home delivers comfort, privacy, and that true “away from it all” feel while still being just minutes from downtown Fort Gaines. With light TLC, this property has incredible potential to truly shine - allowing you to have a beautiful home with waterfront perks at a fraction of the price. Enjoy quiet mornings on the back porch while listening to the desirable sounds of nature.

12. 2022-06-01
    soldstatus $70,000
13. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus
14. 2022-02-21
    listed $80,000
15. 2019-01-09
    soldstatus $57,000
16. 2018-07-28
    listed $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $553 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$366/yr (+$30/mo · 66.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 88% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$553
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,127
• − Management: −$1,127
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$548
• After-tax cash flow: $3,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay County
• NCES district ID: 1301200
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $24,891
• Composite: 18.76/100
• National rank: #14001
• State rank: #174 of 187 in GA

Livability — Fort Gaines

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #573
• US rank: #25161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,919

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,867 people
• By 2030: 2,704 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 2,400 · -16.3%
• By 2050: 2,175 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 1,671 · -41.7%
• By 2100: 1,339 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 26%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.5) · D 53.5% · R 46.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: 22.3pp · 2024: 7.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.5 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+10.3 2012: D+23.2 2008: D+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.53%
• Current HPI: 142.1336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+53.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $99,900 FMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $99,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $109,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $109,900 FMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $119,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $119,900 FMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $129,900 FMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $129,900 GAMLS
• 2022-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-26 Sold (MLS) — EBOR
• 2022-02-21 Listed $80,000 EBOR
• 2019-01-09 Sold (MLS) $57,000 SWGABOR
• 2018-07-28 Listed $65,000 SWGABOR

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $553 · +195.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.