514 W 4th St · Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Other · 37 Days on market

Built 1966 0.38 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked beneath mature shade trees and nestled along a whispering creek, this charming in-town retreat offers a rare blend of nature and convenience on a . 38AC lot! Just a short stroll from Boyer's, downtown and the football field. Set on a beautiful grassy lot, the 1966 mobile home features a cozy living room, dining area, kitchen, two private bedrooms, and a full bath. Sunlight pours through the many windows, creating a warm and cheerful atmosphere while overlooking the spacious fenced-in backyard. A storage shed adds extra room for tools, treasures, or hobbies.

Key facts

• Whispering creek
• Storage shed
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• MATURE SHADE TREES
• WHISPERING CREEK
• SPACIOUS FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story (mobile home)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; No foundation details listed; Built area above grade: 936
• Exterior features: Deck; Stream on the property; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.57%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $51,868
• Equity at exit: $64,196

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $135,334
• Equity at exit: $118,147

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,195/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $835

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 W 4th St Mount Carmel, PA	3.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	0.07mi
137 W 4th St Unit 100 Mt Carmel, PA	1.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	43d	1	0.27mi
410 East Ave Mt Carmel, PA	1.0	1.0	640	$795	$1.24	43d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $99,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $109,000 Active 570-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,379 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,195
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,211
• − Management: −$1,211
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$624
• After-tax cash flow: $3,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $99,000 CSVBR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $109,000 CSVBR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,195 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.