22 Road 5012 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$163,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2021 0.51 ac lot Est $238k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home! It sits on just over half an acre and offers the perfect combination of space, privacy, and affordability. Situated on a desirable corner lot with no HOA, you'll enjoy a massive yard with plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, pets, gardening, or future additions. Inside, you'll find a spacious layout with comfortable living areas, a functional kitchen, and generously sized bedrooms. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, looking to downsize, or simply want more land without sacrificing convenience, this property offers endless possibilities. Don't miss the opportunity to own a newer home on a large unrestricted lot with room to make it your own!

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Massive yard
• No hoa

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MASSIVE YARD
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• NO HOA
• LARGE UNRESTRICTED LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service for heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential property; One-story home; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2020; Unknown construction materials; Composition roof; Foundation information not provided
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Handicap accessible; Paved driveway; Private yard; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the first floor (total 4 rooms listed as bedrooms)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp and wheelchair access; Private yard; Paved driveway; Storage; Shed(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southside El (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 905 students, 95% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.11%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,888
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
197 Olomega Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,227 (+10%)	22mo	$262,000	$118	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-131
• Equity at exit: $24,304

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $38,907
• Equity at exit: $14,093

Cash invested: $45,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,267/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,302

Max offer price $163,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $477	-5% $431	+0% $385	+5% $339	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $243	-5% $314	+0% $385	+5% $455	+10% $526
Rate	-1.0pp $467	-0.5pp $426	base $385	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,750
• Closing costs: $4,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $163,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $163,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $163,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $163,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $163,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 682-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $163,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,267 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,716/yr (+$143/mo · 135.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,131
• − Property taxes: −$1,267
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − Depreciation: −$4,742
• Taxable income: $2,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $4,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $163,000 HARMLS
• 2016-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,267 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.