Harrisburg Plan · Balm, FL 33598

$339,200

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 56 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $331,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Harrisburg); New construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1817 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan); New construction plan: Harrisburg

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $278,943 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-62,681
• Equity at exit: $60,538

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-89,320
• Equity at exit: $46,730

Cash invested: $94,976 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,779
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$424 /mo · $5,088/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,967

Max offer price $318,872

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,800
• Closing costs: $10,176
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15007 Coltman Hill Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,550	$1.33	24d	1	0.33mi
13181 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	24d	1	0.90mi
13095 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,300	$1.19	17d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,200 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,200 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,200 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $339,200 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $336,600 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $336,600 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $336,400 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $336,400 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $336,400 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $334,200 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $334,100 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,100 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $334,100 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $333,100 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $332,900 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $332,700 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    price $331,000 331-char remark
18. 2026-05-16
    price $330,700 331-char remark
19. 2026-05-10
    price $330,500 331-char remark
20. 2026-05-09
    price $330,000 331-char remark
21. 2026-05-08
    price $329,750 331-char remark
22. 2026-05-05
    price $340,225 331-char remark
23. 2026-05-01
    price $345,225 331-char remark
24. 2026-04-25
    price $344,975 331-char remark
25. 2026-04-23
    listed $344,475 Active 331-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,000
• − Property taxes: −$5,088
• − Insurance: −$1,696
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,678
• − Management: −$2,678
• − Depreciation: −$9,868
• Taxable loss: −$7,535
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,808
• After-tax cash flow: $122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs. The highest-ROI updates include painting exterior shutters, replacing the kitchen faucet, and installing smart home devices.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior shutters — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Replace kitchen faucet — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior shutters — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace kitchen faucet — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B