27 Guernsey Ln · Springs, NY 11937

$4,699,000

6 bd · 6.5 ba · 4,748 sqft · Land · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 0.46 ac lot $990/sqft · at area comps Est $4506k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller has plans by architect Thomas Heine for a 4,000sq ft home. Located in the lovely residential Lion Head Beach Association which is a residential bayfront community with just under 200 private homes. It is located in the hamlet of Springs in the town of East Hampton. Lion Head Beach resident's amenities include a private 40 boat slip marina, beachfront picnic area, and storage racks for small craft such as kayaks and paddle boards.

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Ensuite bedroom
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• ENSUITE BEDROOM
• LUXE ENSUITE PRIMARY
• SPA-LIKE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/6.5-bath land listed at $4.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13k ($-150k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.89M (38.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.53M (46.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.53M (46.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $25,256/mo this rent would consume 233% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $32k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $141k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($4.56M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.05M; list at $4.70M implies a 348% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,525,578 (46.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.42%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $4,506,336
• List price: $4,699,000
• Delta: 4.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-1,425,099
• Equity at exit: $700,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-1,658,845
• Equity at exit: $406,284

Cash invested: $1,315,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$24,642
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$5,874 /mo · $70,485/yr
• Insurance: −$1,958
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,304
• Net cashflow: $-12,522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $41,106

Max offer price $2,887,095

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,174,750
• Closing costs: $140,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,699,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,699,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,699,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,699,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,699,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,699,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $4,699,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,699,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $4,699,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $4,699,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $4,699,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $4,699,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $4,699,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $4,699,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    listed $4,450,000 Active
16. 2025-05-22
    soldstatus $1,050,000 Closed 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Seller has plans by architect Thomas Heine for a 4,000sq ft home. Located in the lovely residential Lion Head Beach Association which is a residential bayfront community with just under 200 private homes. It is located in the hamlet of Springs in the town of East Hampton. Lion Head Beach resident's amenities include a private 40 boat slip marina, beachfront picnic area, and storage racks for small craft such as kayaks and paddle boards.

17. 2025-03-27
    status Pending 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Seller has plans by architect Thomas Heine for a 4,000sq ft home. Located in the lovely residential Lion Head Beach Association which is a residential bayfront community with just under 200 private homes. It is located in the hamlet of Springs in the town of East Hampton. Lion Head Beach resident's amenities include a private 40 boat slip marina, beachfront picnic area, and storage racks for small craft such as kayaks and paddle boards.

18. 2024-03-26
    price $1,225,000 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Seller has plans by architect Thomas Heine for a 4,000sq ft home. Located in the lovely residential Lion Head Beach Association which is a residential bayfront community with just under 200 private homes. It is located in the hamlet of Springs in the town of East Hampton. Lion Head Beach resident's amenities include a private 40 boat slip marina, beachfront picnic area, and storage racks for small craft such as kayaks and paddle boards.

19. 2024-03-21
    status Active 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Seller has plans by architect Thomas Heine for a 4,000sq ft home. Located in the lovely residential Lion Head Beach Association which is a residential bayfront community with just under 200 private homes. It is located in the hamlet of Springs in the town of East Hampton. Lion Head Beach resident's amenities include a private 40 boat slip marina, beachfront picnic area, and storage racks for small craft such as kayaks and paddle boards.

20. 2024-03-20
    historical 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Seller has plans by architect Thomas Heine for a 4,000sq ft home. Located in the lovely residential Lion Head Beach Association which is a residential bayfront community with just under 200 private homes. It is located in the hamlet of Springs in the town of East Hampton. Lion Head Beach resident's amenities include a private 40 boat slip marina, beachfront picnic area, and storage racks for small craft such as kayaks and paddle boards.

21. 2023-09-21
    listed $1,295,000 Active 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Seller has plans by architect Thomas Heine for a 4,000sq ft home. Located in the lovely residential Lion Head Beach Association which is a residential bayfront community with just under 200 private homes. It is located in the hamlet of Springs in the town of East Hampton. Lion Head Beach resident's amenities include a private 40 boat slip marina, beachfront picnic area, and storage racks for small craft such as kayaks and paddle boards.

22. 2022-10-27
    soldstatus $815,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $303,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$263,217
• − Property taxes: −$70,485
• − Insurance: −$23,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,246
• − Management: −$24,246
• − Depreciation: −$136,698
• Taxable loss: −$239,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$57,436
• After-tax cash flow: $-92,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+445.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $4,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Sold (MLS) $1,050,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-26 Price Changed $1,225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-21 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-21 Listed $1,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $815,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,872 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.