4400 Kristy Ct · Granbury, TX 76049

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1986 0.58 ac lot $95/sqft · 51% above area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on the Fort Worth side of Granbury, this property offers ideal access to US-377 and convenient commutes to Fort Worth, Weatherford, and surrounding areas. The 3-bed, 2-bath sits on just over half an acre. The home features its original finish-outs, vaulted ceilings, and a spacious layout with two large living areas. The kitchen includes a high-top wrap-around breakfast bar that opens to the main living space for easy gathering. Outside, the home offers two generous decks—one in front, perfect for rocking chairs beneath mature pecan trees, and a large back deck overlooking open land with no rear-facing neighbors. The backyard feels exceptionally private with long views to the tree line.

Key facts

• Two generous decks
• 0.58 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• IDEAL ACCESS TO US-377
• TWO LARGE LIVING AREAS
• TWO GENEROUS DECKS
• NO REAR-FACING NEIGHBORS
• LONG VIEWS TO THE TREE LINE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $760 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 690 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.37%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,038
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 50.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4416 Kristy Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-4%)	14mo	$179,720	$111	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $27,381
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $107,190
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 690
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $754/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $760

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4411 Bobbie Ann Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1645	$1,650	$1.00	44d	1	0.20mi
208 Bobbie Ann Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1645	$1,675	$1.02	44d	1	0.28mi
213 Dean Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,609	$1.17	3d	1	0.28mi
700 Rolling Terrace Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,774	$1.10	7d	1	0.28mi
107 Donna Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.41mi
4700 Topaz Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,350	$1.16	7d	1	0.46mi
4000 Sapphire Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,789	$1.09	3d	1	0.46mi
316 Sardius Blvd Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1686	$1,950	$1.16	7d	1	0.53mi
4720 Topaz Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1903	$2,400	$1.26	24d	1	0.54mi
4816 Sapphire Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1878	$2,400	$1.28	44d	1	0.60mi
4606 Francis Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	44d	1	0.62mi
801 Meadowlark Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	13d	1	0.67mi
902 Twine St Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1577	$1,695	$1.07	44d	1	1.21mi
3009 Meandering Way Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,200	$1.26	18d	1	1.24mi
3905 Country Meadows Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	24d	1	1.31mi
100 Cardinal Woods Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1980	$3,850	$1.94	44d	1	1.37mi
102 Cardinal Woods Ct Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$3,650	$2.25	44d	1	1.37mi
104 Cardinal Woods Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1890	$3,850	$2.04	44d	1	1.38mi
106 Cardinal Woods Ct Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1600	$3,650	$2.28	44d	1	1.39mi
108 Cardinal Woods Ct Granbury, TX	2.0	2.5	2040	$3,850	$1.89	44d	1	1.40mi
110 Cardinal Woods Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1980	$3,850	$1.94	44d	1	1.41mi
112 Cardinal Woods Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1890	$3,850	$2.04	44d	1	1.41mi
3002 Promenade Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,400	$1.29	7d	1	1.42mi
211 S Cardinal Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1980	$3,850	$1.94	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $159,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    historical Active Option Contract 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Located on the Fort Worth side of Granbury, this property offers ideal access to US-377 and convenient commutes to Fort Worth, Weatherford, and surrounding areas. The 3-bed, 2-bath sits on just over half an acre. The home features its original finish-outs, vaulted ceilings, and a spacious layout with two large living areas. The kitchen includes a high-top wrap-around breakfast bar that opens to the main living space for easy gathering. Outside, the home offers two generous decks—one in front, perfect for rocking chairs beneath mature pecan trees, and a large back deck overlooking open land with no rear-facing neighbors. The backyard feels exceptionally private with long views to the tree line.

15. 2026-04-15
    price $165,000 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Located on the Fort Worth side of Granbury, this property offers ideal access to US-377 and convenient commutes to Fort Worth, Weatherford, and surrounding areas. The 3-bed, 2-bath sits on just over half an acre. The home features its original finish-outs, vaulted ceilings, and a spacious layout with two large living areas. The kitchen includes a high-top wrap-around breakfast bar that opens to the main living space for easy gathering. Outside, the home offers two generous decks—one in front, perfect for rocking chairs beneath mature pecan trees, and a large back deck overlooking open land with no rear-facing neighbors. The backyard feels exceptionally private with long views to the tree line.

16. 2026-04-08
    listed $179,900 Active 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Located on the Fort Worth side of Granbury, this property offers ideal access to US-377 and convenient commutes to Fort Worth, Weatherford, and surrounding areas. The 3-bed, 2-bath sits on just over half an acre. The home features its original finish-outs, vaulted ceilings, and a spacious layout with two large living areas. The kitchen includes a high-top wrap-around breakfast bar that opens to the main living space for easy gathering. Outside, the home offers two generous decks—one in front, perfect for rocking chairs beneath mature pecan trees, and a large back deck overlooking open land with no rear-facing neighbors. The backyard feels exceptionally private with long views to the tree line.

17. 2026-02-28
    historical
18. 2026-02-16
    price $169,900
19. 2026-01-21
    price $174,900
20. 2026-01-21
    status Active
21. 2026-01-06
    price $179,000
22. 2025-12-08
    price $185,000
23. 2025-11-19
    listed $195,000 Active
24. 1986-03-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $754 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,173/yr (+$181/mo · 288.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$754
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,100
• − Management: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $6,884
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,652
• After-tax cash flow: $7,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $195,000 NTREIS
• 1986-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $754 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.