4252 40th Ct N · Birmingham, AL 35217

$39,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1958 8,276 sqft lot Est $70k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Accepting Cash/HML offers. Property is being sold "as is. " Buyer is responsible for their own due diligence. Buyer to pay all closing costs. EMD is due within 48 hrs after executed contract.

Key facts

• Property sold as is
• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• PROPERTY SOLD AS IS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $593 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.5% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Inglenook School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #618 of 627 statewide, top 100%, 333 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,415 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.20%
• DSCR: 3.90
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,856
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4421 43rd St N	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+1%)	4mo	$42,000	$35	82
4125 40th Ave N	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-3%)	4mo	$67,000	$59	77
4009 44th St N	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-10%)	9mo	$85,000	$80	72
4021 43rd Ave N	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,150 (-3%)	10mo	$18,000	$16	66
4232 42nd St N	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-8%)	11mo	$126,000	$115	64
3929 41st Ave N	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-5%)	2mo	$52,000	$46	63
4338 49th Ct	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,205 (+2%)	10mo	$87,500	$73	58
4104 41st Ave N	0.26mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,345 (+14%)	1mo	$42,500	$32	58
4208 50th Ave N	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-7%)	7mo	$67,500	$61	48
4300 Pulaski St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,045 (-12%)	1mo	$45,000	$43	45
4318 49th Ct N	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+7%)	11mo	$95,800	$76	45
3413 38th Pl N	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-15%)	1mo	$30,000	$30	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $32,175
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.29×
• Total profit: $79,601
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35217

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,135 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $995/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $384

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $615	-5% $604	+0% $593	+5% $582	+10% $571
Rent	-10% $504	-5% $548	+0% $593	+5% $638	+10% $683
Rate	-1.0pp $613	-0.5pp $603	base $593	+0.5pp $583	+1.0pp $573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4317 41st Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,000	$1.16	45d	1	0.05mi
4220 40th Ct N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	948	$1,200	$1.27	45d	1	0.09mi
4231 40th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1272	$850	$0.67	20d	1	0.10mi
4236 39th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	24d	1	0.13mi
4217 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,200	$1.05	4d	1	0.17mi
4400 43rd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1152	$850	$0.74	45d	1	0.21mi
4400 43rd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1152	$850	$0.74	15d	1	0.21mi
4028 40th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1186	$950	$0.80	45d	1	0.32mi
4549 40th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	728	$850	$1.17	45d	1	0.59mi
3823 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	24d	1	0.61mi
3823 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	45d	1	0.61mi
4244 Jackson St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	858	$1,100	$1.28	45d	1	0.62mi
4301 Greenwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,025	$0.90	4d	1	0.64mi
4925 43rd Way N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,461	$1.19	2d	1	0.65mi
4329 Harmon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$950	$0.77	4d	1	0.70mi
4329 Harmon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$950	$0.77	45d	1	0.70mi
4329 Pulaski St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,353	$1.09	24d	1	0.70mi
4344 Pulaski St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,050	$0.83	45d	1	0.74mi
4208 50th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.74mi
5015 42nd Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	45d	1	0.77mi
4316 Gadsden St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1048	$1,100	$1.05	4d	1	0.77mi
5025 43rd Pl N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1017	$1,300	$1.28	45d	1	0.78mi
1316 Spring St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,195	$1.30	4d	1	0.80mi
4101 50th Ave N Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	45d	1	0.80mi
1045 Waverly St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,000	$0.99	45d	1	0.84mi
1303 Main St Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1432	$1,300	$0.91	45d	1	0.87mi
1076 Green St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	17d	1	0.92mi
732 Fulton Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	45d	1	0.93mi
1224 Maple St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	812	$690	$0.85	20d	1	1.03mi
1237 Elm Ave Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1312	$1,150	$0.88	45d	1	1.04mi
1043 Jackson Blvd Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,095	$0.84	15d	1	1.07mi
3708 42nd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	876	$950	$1.08	45d	1	1.08mi
1249 Waverly St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,000	$0.79	45d	1	1.09mi
1601 48th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1313	$1,200	$0.91	24d	1	1.09mi
4513 13th Ave N Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	778	$1,175	$1.51	24d	1	1.10mi
1439 Sloan Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	936	$900	$0.96	45d	1	1.16mi
1217 43rd St N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	45d	1	1.20mi
1120 Hall St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	887	$775	$0.87	45d	1	1.21mi
1705 52nd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1214	$1,100	$0.91	45d	1	1.23mi
1116 Hall St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	887	$775	$0.87	45d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2024-08-19
   soldstatus $45,000
2. 2024-08-05
   status Pending
3. 2024-07-15
   listed $39,000 Active
4. 1978-10-02
   soldstatus $28,500
5. 1976-09-01
   soldstatus $20,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$995
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,090
• − Management: −$1,090
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $6,936
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,665
• After-tax cash flow: $5,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 12,240
• Household income: $40,486
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 594.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.54%
• Current HPI: 117.416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+115.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-05 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-07-15 Listed $39,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1978-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records
• 1976-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $995 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.