5 Erica St · Alva, FL 33920

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Condo public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1985 $406/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Top of the Line Double-Wide Extra Features- Wood Floors-Laundry Room-Extra Wide- Vaulted Ceilings-Pristine condition-55+ Community w/ a Marina, clubhouse, Heated Pool, Bus Service. This is a very active Retirement Community (or not) your choice! Includes a $16,000 Co-op certificate.

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Private marina
• Riverfront

Tags

• RIVERFRONT
• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE MARINA
• MATURE TREES
• QUAINT RIVERFRONT COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed conditionally (call); maximum 1 pet up to 25 lbs
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee of $406; Association covers management, irrigation water, legal/accounting, grounds maintenance, road maintenance, street lights, trash; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, guest suites, library, picnic and barbecue areas, park, pier, marina/boat facilities with boat ramp and docks, RV/boat storage, bocce and shuffleboard courts, storage; Non-gated community with street lights; Senior community; On-site management; Approximately 200 units in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered attached carport; 2 carport spaces; Two covered spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level: 1; Faces north; Resale property; Modular/Prefabricated home; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Oversized lot; Storage; Community pool; Reclaimed water irrigation; Paved road; South exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; Florida room
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Fireplace; Living/Dining room; Shower only; Separate shower; Cable TV; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Single-hung windows; Shutters; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (34.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#514 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 456 active listings in the ZIP; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $189k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,765 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-53,688
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-75,176
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33920

• Home prices YoY: -11.8%
• Active inventory: 456
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,065 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,177/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$406
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,532

Max offer price $123,765

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $406 · $4,872/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-20
    price $189,000
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $200,000 Active
15. 2011-07-19
    price $68,900 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Top of the Line Double-Wide Extra Features- Wood Floors-Laundry Room-Extra Wide- Vaulted Ceilings-Pristine condition-55+ Community w/ a Marina, clubhouse, Heated Pool, Bus Service. This is a very active Retirement Community (or not) your choice! Includes a $16,000 Co-op certificate.

16. 2011-07-14
    soldstatus $65,000 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Top of the Line Double-Wide Extra Features- Wood Floors-Laundry Room-Extra Wide- Vaulted Ceilings-Pristine condition-55+ Community w/ a Marina, clubhouse, Heated Pool, Bus Service. This is a very active Retirement Community (or not) your choice! Includes a $16,000 Co-op certificate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,177 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,569 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$392/yr (+$33/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,177
• − Insurance: −$6,064
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,982
• − Management: −$1,982
• − HOA: −$4,872
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$7,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,772
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alva

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #514
• US rank: #9471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alva, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,689

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 5% German 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.83%
• Current HPI: 355.9229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+190.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $189,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $200,000 FORTMLS
• 2011-07-19 Price Changed $68,900 FORTMLS
• 2011-07-14 Sold (MLS) $65,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,177 · +36.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.