Gates Plan · Fort Worth, TX 76140

$195,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily · 171 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS OUTDOOR SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $195,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $254,660.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $196k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Fort Worth — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Everman ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #691 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John And Polly Townley El (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,785 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 365 students, 95% FRL); Charles Baxter J H (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 769 students, 94% FRL); Everman H S (math 15% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 1,740 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 77% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 605 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,479 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,660
• List price: $195,999
• Delta: -23.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1614 Verdin Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,192 (0%)	1mo	$184,999	$155	87
1620 Verdin Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,192 (0%)	1mo	$185,999	$156	87
1533 Orange Tree Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+1%)	3mo	$279,990	$233	87
1617 Verdin Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,192 (0%)	2mo	$185,999	$156	87
1608 Black Kite Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	1mo	$277,499	$219	77
1632 Black Kite Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	1mo	$243,499	$192	75
1609 Limpkin Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	4mo	$229,549	$181	74
1633 Limpkin Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	5mo	$231,999	$183	71
1657 Limpkin Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	4mo	$270,999	$214	70
1624 Verdin Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,033 (-13%)	0mo	$174,999	$169	66
1664 Stellar Sea Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	6mo	$272,674	$215	66
1344 Castle Ridge Rd	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,030 (-14%)	0mo	$115,000	$112	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-63,404
• Equity at exit: $37,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-97,474
• Equity at exit: $22,018

Cash invested: $71,305 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $254,999 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 19 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76140

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,335
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$318 /mo · $3,820/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,228

Max offer price $216,456

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-176	+0% $-264	+5% $-352	+10% $-440
Rent	-10% $-414	-5% $-339	+0% $-264	+5% $-189	+10% $-114
Rate	-1.0pp $-136	-0.5pp $-199	base $-264	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,665
• Closing costs: $7,640
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1436 Mahogany Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,100	$1.51	48d	1	0.07mi
1500 Silver Oak Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1243	$1,875	$1.51	68d	1	0.12mi
1412 Silver Oak Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,900	$1.35	27d	1	0.12mi
1408 Silver Spruce Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,800	$1.28	114d	1	0.17mi
10628 Wild Oak Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1312	$1,670	$1.27	78d	1	0.17mi
1336 Castle Ridge Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,775	$1.21	51d	1	0.19mi
1421 Castle Ridge Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,765	$1.39	88d	1	0.19mi
1341 Castle Ridge Rd Fort Worth, TX	2.0	1.0	1030	$1,575	$1.53	46d	1	0.20mi
10636 Many Oaks Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	3.0	1326	$1,399	$1.06	45d	1	0.21mi
1437 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,850	$1.57	11d	1	0.24mi
1433 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	3.0	1316	$2,075	$1.58	139d	1	0.24mi
1461 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,659	$1.31	76d	1	0.24mi
10716 Wild Oak Dr Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,595	$1.49	116d	1	0.24mi
10745 Many Oaks Dr Fort Worth, TX	2.0	1.0	997	$1,595	$1.60	120d	1	0.27mi
1456 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,665	$1.27	0d	1	0.27mi
1424 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1332	$1,590	$1.19	108d	1	0.27mi
1452 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.5	1098	$1,595	$1.45	116d	1	0.27mi
1508 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.0	1098	$1,599	$1.46	139d	1	0.27mi
1528 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1285	$1,685	$1.31	24d	1	0.28mi
10752 Many Oaks Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1312	$1,755	$1.34	87d	1	0.29mi
1617 Verdin Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,700	$1.43	6d	1	0.29mi
1429 Royal Meadows Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,995	$1.36	35d	1	0.31mi
1300 Hazelnut Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,900	$1.31	11d	1	0.32mi
1612 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,925	$1.36	139d	1	0.33mi
1633 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,905	$1.50	139d	1	0.34mi
1644 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,860	$1.33	139d	1	0.38mi
1617 Crested Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	139d	1	0.39mi
1680 Crested Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,895	$1.34	108d	1	0.52mi
1121 Sandalwood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,800	$1.32	48d	1	0.54mi
1456 Palamedes Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,000	$1.52	100d	1	0.57mi
10525 Flamewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,849	$1.28	98d	1	0.59mi
10525 Flamewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,749	$1.21	76d	1	0.59mi
1021 Olivewood Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,800	$1.39	37d	1	0.60mi
10613 Flamewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,550	$1.17	139d	1	0.60mi
1500 Four Seasons Ln Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,400	$1.60	2d	1	0.60mi
1316 Talton Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,225	$1.69	85d	1	0.65mi
1800 Oak Grove Rd E Burleson, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1560	$1,550	$0.99	0d	1	0.68mi
1800 Oak Grove Rd E Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,070	$1.49	37d	3	0.68mi
10632 Towerwood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,750	$1.27	120d	1	0.68mi
10640 Towerwood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,671	$1.18	89d	1	0.69mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 10504 Mahogany Wood, Fort Worth TX 76140Status: ActiveInventory type: New construction (Plan)Last modification: 2026-04-29
• Financial info: List price $210,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home (Gates)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1192

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan is new construction (Gates plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $195,999 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $195,999 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $195,999 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $195,999 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $195,999 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $195,999 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $195,999 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $195,999 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $195,999 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $195,999 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $195,999 Active 161 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $195,999 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $195,999 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $195,999 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $195,999 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $195,999 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $195,999 Active 149 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $195,999 Active 147 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $195,999 Active 146 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $195,999 Active 145 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $195,999 Active 144 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    pricedays on market $195,999 Active 143 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $210,999 Active 141 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $210,999 Active 140 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $210,999 Active 139 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $210,999 Active 138 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $210,999 Active 137 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $210,999 Active 136 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $210,999 Active 135 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $210,999 Active 134 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $210,999 Active 133 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $210,999 Active 132 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $210,999 Active 131 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $210,999 Active 130 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $210,999 Active 129 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $210,999 Active 128 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $210,999 Active 127 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $210,999 Active 126 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $210,999 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $210,999 Active 124 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $210,999 Active 122 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $210,999 Active 121 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $210,999 Active 120 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $210,999 Active 119 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $210,999 Active 116 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $210,999 Active 114 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $210,999 Active 113 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $210,999 Active 111 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $210,999 Active 109 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $210,999 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,265
• − Property taxes: −$3,820
• − Insurance: −$1,273
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$7,408
• Taxable loss: −$7,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,843
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,960–$17,880 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from minor exterior and interior touch-ups to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary John And Polly Townley El F TX #3,785/4,322 Nat'l #34,815/41,679 Middle Dan Powell Early Learning Academy High Everman H S F TX #1,250/1,632 Nat'l #12,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Everman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,803
• Composite: 22.77/100
• National rank: #8027
• State rank: #691 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,380,417 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,321
• Household income: $75,955
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 35% White 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 2% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.54%
• Current HPI: 285.9894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.11%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 10504 Mahogany Wood, Fort Worth TX 76140Status: ActiveInventory type: New construction (Plan)Last modification: 2026-04-29
• Financial info: List price $210,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home (Gates)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1192

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan is new construction (Gates plan)