5495 5th St #24 · Kelseyville, CA 95451

$48,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 257 Days on market

Built 1978 $34/sqft · 35% below area Est $75k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home in the Walnut Estates Adult Park. Home has a large living room and dining area. Kitchen opens up to the great room and access to large covered deck. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom that includes a large bathtub and a stall shower. Laundry room has access to the covered carport. Close to downtown Kelseyville.

Key facts

• Large bathtub
• Primary bathroom
• Dining area

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• LARGE COVERED DECK
• PRIMARY BATHROOM
• LARGE BATHTUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.9% vs local median 2.2% in Kelseyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,059 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, schools F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $335 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $48k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.79%
• DSCR: 6.02
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,783
• List price: $48,500
• Delta: -35.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5495 5th St #11	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$54,000	$38	93
5935 Live Oak #17	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$50,000	$35	80
5725 Live Oak Dr #51	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	22mo	$38,500	$27	74
5650 Kelsey Creek Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (-4%)	19mo	$399,900	$289	64
5701 Live Oak Dr #62	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	21mo	$80,000	$52	64
5935 Live Oak Dr #16	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	8mo	$97,000	$78	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $73,467
• Equity at exit: $7,232

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.43×
• Total profit: $168,780
• Equity at exit: $4,193

Cash invested: $13,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95451

• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$254
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $728/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $1,276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $424

Max offer price $48,500

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,125
• Closing costs: $1,455
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5631 Konocti Terrace Dr Kelseyville, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	43d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $48,500 Active 257 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,500 Active 256 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,500 Active 255 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,500 Active 254 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,500 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $48,500 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $48,500 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $48,500 Active 247 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,500 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $48,500 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $48,500 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $48,500 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $48,500 Active 240 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $48,500 Active 239 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,500 Active 238 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $48,500 Active 237 DOM
17. 2026-03-16
    status Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home in the Walnut Estates Adult Park. Home has a large living room and dining area. Kitchen opens up to the great room and access to large covered deck. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom that includes a large bathtub and a stall shower. Laundry room has access to the covered carport. Close to downtown Kelseyville.

18. 2026-02-21
    historical Active Under Contract 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home in the Walnut Estates Adult Park. Home has a large living room and dining area. Kitchen opens up to the great room and access to large covered deck. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom that includes a large bathtub and a stall shower. Laundry room has access to the covered carport. Close to downtown Kelseyville.

19. 2026-01-20
    price $48,500 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home in the Walnut Estates Adult Park. Home has a large living room and dining area. Kitchen opens up to the great room and access to large covered deck. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom that includes a large bathtub and a stall shower. Laundry room has access to the covered carport. Close to downtown Kelseyville.

20. 2025-10-05
    listed $52,550 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home in the Walnut Estates Adult Park. Home has a large living room and dining area. Kitchen opens up to the great room and access to large covered deck. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom that includes a large bathtub and a stall shower. Laundry room has access to the covered carport. Close to downtown Kelseyville.

21. 2016-09-23
    soldstatus $22,500 Closed Sale 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Spacious 2 bedroom and 2 bath home in the Walnut Estates Senior Park. Large living room, Kitchen opens to dining room with built in china cabinet. Carpeted master bedroom, master bath has a large tub with stall shower. New toilets in both bath rooms. Laundry room that has access to the covered carport.

22. 2016-09-01
    historical Active Under Contract 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Spacious 2 bedroom and 2 bath home in the Walnut Estates Senior Park. Large living room, Kitchen opens to dining room with built in china cabinet. Carpeted master bedroom, master bath has a large tub with stall shower. New toilets in both bath rooms. Laundry room that has access to the covered carport.

23. 2016-05-24
    listed $28,000 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Spacious 2 bedroom and 2 bath home in the Walnut Estates Senior Park. Large living room, Kitchen opens to dining room with built in china cabinet. Carpeted master bedroom, master bath has a large tub with stall shower. New toilets in both bath rooms. Laundry room that has access to the covered carport.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,717
• − Property taxes: −$728
• − Insurance: −$242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$1,411
• Taxable income: $15,465
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,712
• After-tax cash flow: $11,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelseyville Unified
• NCES district ID: 0619320
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,210
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #12920
• State rank: #1150 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Kelseyville

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1059
• US rank: #25219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kelseyville, CA
• County: Lake County · 24,333 people
• City population: 12,592
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 12,592
• Household income: $62,568
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 194.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.45%
• Current HPI: 168.6995
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+73.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-21 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $48,500 CRMLS
• 2025-10-05 Listed $52,550 CRMLS
• 2016-09-23 Sold (MLS) $22,500 CRMLS
• 2016-09-01 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2016-05-24 Listed $28,000 CRMLS