12411 W Village Dr Unit D · Houston, TX 77039

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · Townhouse public records · 308 Days on market

Built 1979 1,374 sqft lot $57/sqft · 19% below area Est $105k · 19% under $202/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pine Village North Subdivision. All bedrooms are up. Cozy fireplace in the living room. Detached 2 car garage. Minutes from International Airport and Deerbrook Mall. Needs​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ work.

Key facts

• Ceramic tile
• Cozy fireplace
• $202 HOA

Tags

• PINE VILLAGE NORTH SUBDIVISION
• COZY FIREPLACE
• CERAMIC TILE
• MINUTES FROM DEERBROOK MALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $85k implies a 415% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.60%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,045
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -19.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5714 Easthampton Dr Unit C	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,527 (+2%)	4mo	$125,000	$82	78
12419 W Village Dr Unit A	0.03mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,526 (+2%)	13mo	$58,000	$38	77
5755 Easthampton Dr Unit C	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,623 (+9%)	1mo	$117,999	$73	72
12223 Wild Pine Dr Unit D	0.28mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,555 (+4%)	2mo	$110,900	$71	72
5731 Easthampton Dr Unit A	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,623 (+9%)	5mo	$122,500	$75	67
5618 Easthampton Dr Unit D	0.28mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,411 (-6%)	4mo	$64,900	$46	67
12203 W Village Dr Unit C	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,698 (+14%)	2mo	$139,000	$82	64
12439 W Village Dr Unit B	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,320 (-12%)	14mo	$110,000	$83	64
12339 W Village Dr Unit D	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,340 (-10%)	12mo	$55,000	$41	63
5767 Easthampton Dr Unit C	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,623 (+9%)	12mo	$128,000	$79	62
12223 W Village Dr Unit D	0.20mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,619 (+8%)	12mo	$55,000	$34	60
12282 Wild Pine Dr Unit A	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,313 (-12%)	11mo	$99,900	$76	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-2,692
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $12,520
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77039

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,641/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$202
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5001 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1065	$1,144	$1.07	43d	16	0.55mi
4610 Anice St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$1,566	$0.88	12d	1	1.16mi
5526 Rotan Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$900	$0.86	18d	1	1.16mi
4505 Aldine Mail Rte Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,350	$1.71	1d	6	1.20mi
4505 Aldine Mail Route Rd Unit 712 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,325	$1.43	43d	1	1.23mi
11610 Danford Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	43d	1	1.23mi
4335 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$983	$1.13	22d	6	1.31mi
4335 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,307	$1.40	1d	7	1.31mi
4341 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,107	$1.19	22d	1	1.32mi
4341 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,107	$1.19	43d	1	1.32mi
11435 Raincove Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,345	$1.34	4d	1	1.35mi
12556 John F Kennedy Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,115	$1.20	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $202 · $2,424/yr

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 308 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 307 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 306 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 305 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 303 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 302 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 299 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 298 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 297 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 294 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 293 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 292 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 291 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 290 DOM
15. 2026-01-28
    price $85,000 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Pine Village North Subdivision. All bedrooms are up. Cozy fireplace in the living room. Detached 2 car garage. Minutes from International Airport and Deerbrook Mall. Needs​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ work.

16. 2025-10-13
    price $87,000 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Pine Village North Subdivision. All bedrooms are up. Cozy fireplace in the living room. Detached 2 car garage. Minutes from International Airport and Deerbrook Mall. Needs​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ work.

17. 2025-08-18
    status Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Pine Village North Subdivision. All bedrooms are up. Cozy fireplace in the living room. Detached 2 car garage. Minutes from International Airport and Deerbrook Mall. Needs​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ work.

18. 2025-08-18
    historical 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Pine Village North Subdivision. All bedrooms are up. Cozy fireplace in the living room. Detached 2 car garage. Minutes from International Airport and Deerbrook Mall. Needs​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ work.

19. 2025-08-14
    listed $98,500 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Pine Village North Subdivision. All bedrooms are up. Cozy fireplace in the living room. Detached 2 car garage. Minutes from International Airport and Deerbrook Mall. Needs​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ work.

20. 2024-04-01
    historical
21. 2024-02-23
    listed $125,000 Active
22. 2021-09-10
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2021-08-09
    status Pending
24. 2021-07-28
    price $85,000
25. 2021-07-14
    listed $93,000 Active
26. 2021-04-21
    soldstatus
27. 2021-04-19
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2021-03-31
    status Pending
29. 2021-03-22
    status Option Pending
30. 2021-03-08
    listed $68,900 Active
31. 2021-02-02
    historical
32. 2020-06-15
    status Active
33. 2020-06-12
    status Pending
34. 2020-06-05
    status Option Pending
35. 2020-05-23
    listed $76,995 Active
36. 2014-04-22
    historical
37. 2014-04-21
    listed $1,000 Active
38. 2009-01-15
    soldstatus
39. 2008-11-10
    soldstatus
40. 2001-08-13
    historical
41. 2001-03-08
    listed $40,500
42. 1997-07-10
    soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,641 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,641 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥110°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,641
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − HOA: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $978
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$235
• After-tax cash flow: $1,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,862
• Household income: $47,119
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1128.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 15% Black 9% White 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.88%
• Current HPI: 316.66
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+415.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $87,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $98,500 HARMLS
• 2024-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-23 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-08-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-28 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-14 Listed $93,000 HARMLS
• 2021-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-08 Listed $68,900 HARMLS
• 2021-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-06-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-23 Listed $76,995 HARMLS
• 2014-04-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-04-21 Listed $1,000 HARMLS
• 2009-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-08-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-03-08 Listed $40,500 HARMLS
• 1997-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,641 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.