10514 Clear Cove Ln · Houston, TX 77041

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1980 6,825 sqft lot $142/sqft · at area comps Est $266k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location, Location! Home is conveniently located near I-1- and the Beltway. Surrounded by shopping, fitness and everything in between, this 3-bedroom 2 bath home with an open floor plan, is the perfect home for everyone from first time homebuyer, investor, downsizing or just relocating. For a private showing, schedule with your local realtor today!

Key facts

• 6,825 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,363 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.24%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,384
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -4.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10615 White Fawn Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,952 (+9%)	0mo	$249,999	$128	76
10519 Clear Cove Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,570 (-12%)	0mo	$325,000	$207	72
5027 E Fallen Bough Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,719 (-4%)	3mo	$310,000	$180	64
3207 Quiet Sunset Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-4%)	1mo	$419,990	$243	56
5035 E Pagewick Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,644 (-8%)	2mo	$259,000	$158	55
10028 Rustic Charm St	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,703 (-5%)	4mo	$351,000	$206	55
10006 Rustic Charm St	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-4%)	3mo	$376,640	$218	54
10458 N Pagewick Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,682 (-6%)	3mo	$290,000	$172	54
10014 Rustic Charm St	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,703 (-5%)	2mo	$351,140	$206	54
10008 Rustic Charm St	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,607 (-10%)	2mo	$332,240	$207	45
10018 Rustic Charm St	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,989 (+11%)	3mo	$384,890	$194	39
3209 Quiet Sunset Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5	2,052 (+14%)	1mo	$438,840	$214	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.47% appreciation · 0.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-46,337
• Equity at exit: $55,834

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-67,900
• Equity at exit: $53,903

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77041

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,192 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$516 /mo · $6,188/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,511

Max offer price $210,363

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-108	-5% $-180	+0% $-252	+5% $-324	+10% $-396
Rent	-10% $-425	-5% $-339	+0% $-252	+5% $-166	+10% $-79
Rate	-1.0pp $-124	-0.5pp $-187	base $-252	+0.5pp $-318	+1.0pp $-385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10615 Heatherford Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2120	$2,495	$1.18	7d	1	0.26mi
10800 Clay Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$2,010	$1.98	2d	32	0.27mi
10221 Centrepark Dr Unit 525 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,047	$1.48	3d	1	0.48mi
10221 Centrepark Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,090	$1.51	12d	1	0.48mi
10221 Centrepark Dr Unit 10254 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,014	$1.45	44d	1	0.48mi
2823 Stetson Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$3,050	$1.49	44d	1	0.79mi
9945 Storehouse Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2119	$2,600	$1.23	44d	1	0.87mi
5550 Dancy Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$2,274	$2.30	44d	37	0.96mi
5550 Dancy Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$2,455	$2.49	2d	12	0.96mi
9826 Rugged Oaks Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1942	$2,250	$1.16	25d	1	1.08mi
10105 Kempwood Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,575	$1.70	3d	24	1.10mi
11810 Clay Rd Unit 90222 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1402	$1,700	$1.21	44d	1	1.11mi
11810 Clay Rd Unit 60228 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1244	$1,575	$1.27	44d	1	1.11mi
9813 Falling Fern Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,295	$1.39	25d	1	1.11mi
9811 Falling Fern Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1942	$2,425	$1.25	14d	1	1.11mi
11918 Clay Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,014	$2.11	7d	34	1.18mi
10580 Hammerly Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	987	$1,357	$1.37	2d	31	1.47mi
9634 Rockhurst Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1881	$2,700	$1.44	44d	1	1.49mi
2226 Triway Ln #100 Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1584	$1,900	$1.20	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $254,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,990 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,990 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,990 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $259,990 Active 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Location, Location, Location! Home is conveniently located near I-1- and the Beltway. Surrounded by shopping, fitness and everything in between, this 3-bedroom 2 bath home with an open floor plan, is the perfect home for everyone from first time homebuyer, investor, downsizing or just relocating. For a private showing, schedule with your local realtor today!

17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-09-08
    listed $240,000 Active
19. 2025-08-21
    historical
20. 2025-05-29
    price $245,000
21. 2025-02-21
    listed $260,000 Active
22. 2025-02-13
    historical
23. 2025-02-02
    listed $240,000 Active
24. 2017-12-29
    soldstatus
25. 2017-12-27
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2017-11-28
    status Pending
27. 2017-11-18
    status Option Pending
28. 2017-08-24
    listed $185,000 Active
29. 2001-07-01
    historical
30. 2001-05-16
    soldstatus
31. 2001-02-12
    listed $99,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,188 · $516/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,188 · $516/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$6,188
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,104
• − Management: −$2,104
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$7,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,767
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,349
• Household income: $77,083
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 537.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 25% White 23% Asian 16% Black 9% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 39% Vietnamese 8% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.47%
• Current HPI: 241.5096
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.25%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+161.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-02 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2017-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-11-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-11-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-24 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2001-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-12 Listed $99,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,188 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.