6538 Crawford Rd · Ashtabula, OH 44004

$134,990

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1930 8,712 sqft lot $119/sqft · 8% below area Est $178k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hot #5144! Cape Cod On Nice Lot In Saybrook Twp. 3 Bedrooms. 2 Baths. Cozy Nice Area Close To Shopping. Landscaped. Some Updates.

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Private backyard
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY BEDROOM
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• NEWLY REPLACED HOT WATER TANK
• NEWER FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $87k (35.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $76k (43.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $76k (43.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 8.2% in Ashtabula — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#420 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashtabula Area City (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #588 of 656 in OH (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $934 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $76,250 (43.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.71%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,575
• List price: $134,990
• Delta: -23.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3806 N Ridge Rd W	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,024 (-10%)	22mo	$160,000	$156	56
6311 Frances Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+14%)	10mo	$143,500	$110	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-39,368
• Equity at exit: $20,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-56,872
• Equity at exit: $11,671

Cash invested: $37,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44004

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$160
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,110

Max offer price $86,531

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,748
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2605 N Bend Rd Ashtabula, OH	2.0	2.0	864	$762	$0.88	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1020-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $134,990 Active 1020-char remark
3. 2021-06-30
   historical
4. 2021-06-26
   listed $70,000 Active
5. 2000-09-14
   soldstatus $68,000

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   Hot #5144! Cape Cod On Nice Lot In Saybrook Twp. 3 Bedrooms. 2 Baths. Cozy Nice Area Close To Shopping. Landscaped. Some Updates.

6. 2000-09-14
   soldstatus $68,000

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   Hot #5144! Cape Cod On Nice Lot In Saybrook Twp. 3 Bedrooms. 2 Baths. Cozy Nice Area Close To Shopping. Landscaped. Some Updates.

7. 2000-08-17
   historical

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   Hot #5144! Cape Cod On Nice Lot In Saybrook Twp. 3 Bedrooms. 2 Baths. Cozy Nice Area Close To Shopping. Landscaped. Some Updates.

8. 2000-01-08
   listed $69,900

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   Hot #5144! Cape Cod On Nice Lot In Saybrook Twp. 3 Bedrooms. 2 Baths. Cozy Nice Area Close To Shopping. Landscaped. Some Updates.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,350 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,728 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$31/mo · 28.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$732
• − Management: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$5,828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,399
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashtabula Area City
• NCES district ID: 3904351
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,812
• Composite: 24.3/100
• National rank: #7712
• State rank: #588 of 656 in OH

Livability — Ashtabula

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #6883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• City population: 31,076
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 31,076
• Household income: $49,507
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14.1

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.51%
• Current HPI: 260.7146
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+97.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Sold (MLS) $137,785 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-04 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-30 Listed $134,990 MLSNOW
• 2021-06-30 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2021-06-26 Listed $70,000 MLSNOW
• 2000-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-14 Sold (MLS) $68,000 MLSNOW
• 2000-08-17 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2000-01-08 Listed $69,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,350 · +64.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.