4031 W Marble Way · Knik-Fairview, AK 99654

$989,000

12 bd · 8.0 ba · 4,796 sqft · MultiFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition 1.00 ac lot Est $983k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Outstanding multifamily investment opportunity! Detached four-plex situated on 1.15 acres in a great commuter location. The owner's unit features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a private fenced yard with gated RV parking. Each of the three additional units offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, providing a highly desirable layout for tenants. Numerous improvements and regular maintenance have been completed, including new boilers, water softener, well pump, flooring, and paint. With a strong rental history, garages for every unit, ample parking, and a spacious lot, this property offers excellent income potential for investors while also presenting an owner-oc

Key facts

• Gated rv parking
• New boilers
• Water softener

Tags

• DETACHED FOUR-PLEX
• PRIVATE FENCED YARD
• GATED RV PARKING
• NEW BOILERS
• WATER SOFTENER
• WELL PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot of 1.0 acre

Exterior

• Parking: 5 covered garage spaces (attached); 8 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Multi-family property; Built in 2015; Wood frame (2x6) construction; Poured concrete foundation; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Wood Frame - 2x6 construction; Poured concrete foundation; Shingle/Composition/Asphalt roof; Built in 2015
• Exterior features: Composition/Shingle/Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 12 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 8 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $989k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-25/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $974k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $852k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $852k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Snowshoe Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #43 of 156 statewide, top 32%, 340 students, 46% FRL); Wasilla Middle School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #18 of 36 statewide, top 49%, 610 students, 44% FRL); Wasilla High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #42 of 61 statewide, top 82%, 848 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,524/mo this rent would consume 105% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 872% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $852,400 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $983,180
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3700 S Lansing Rd	0.30mi	12/8.0	4,687 (-2%)	9mo	$960,000	$205	75
3762 S Lansing Rd	0.30mi	12/6.5	5,088 (+6%)	5mo	$1,000,000	$197	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-191,209
• Equity at exit: $147,463

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-269,611
• Equity at exit: $85,511

Cash invested: $276,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99654

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 38.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,186
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,236 /mo · $14,835/yr
• Insurance: −$412
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,790
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,652

Max offer price $974,415

Occupancy floor 96%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	2	$8,524
Total (4 units)			$8,524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $247,250
• Closing costs: $29,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $989,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-13
   listed $989,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $102,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,399
• − Property taxes: −$14,835
• − Insurance: −$4,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,183
• − Management: −$8,183
• − Depreciation: −$28,771
• Taxable loss: −$18,028
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,327
• After-tax cash flow: $3,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This four-plex multifamily property is in good condition with recent improvements and regular maintenance. It offers excellent income potential for investors and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves property's visual appeal and rental value
• Both Addition of outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves property's visual appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Addition of outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 44,647
• Household income: $97,544
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 872.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.68%
• Current HPI: 196.8728
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $989,000 AKMLS