4100 Heards Ln · Nellysford, VA 22920

$130,000

3 bd · None ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1920 4.15 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Perched atop Heards Mountain in Afton, this 4.15-acre property showcases sweeping mountain views and the natural beauty of Albemarle County, complete with nearby creeks and a peaceful, elevated setting. It offers an ideal canvas for a custom retreat, private estate, or income-producing getaway. A 3-bedroom home remains on the property and is ready for its next chapter. While currently uninhabitable and being sold as-is, it provides an existing footprint for those looking to restore, reimagine, or build new in this exceptional location. With close proximity to Charlottesville, wineries, and outdoor recreation, the property also offers strong potential for a short-term rental or Airbnb-style

Key facts

• 4.15 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership: Fee simple

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Other parking
• Utilities: Water from spring; No sewer system; No municipal trash service
• Home design: Detached structure; Single-level entry (all main-level bedrooms)
• Construction: Built (year source: Assessor); Asbestos construction materials; Permanent brick/mortar foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Water view; Mountain location; Private road

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Other heating
• Interior features: Major rehab needed; No basement; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 0.9% in Nellysford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#457 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.13%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $56,665
• Equity at exit: $52,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $143,679
• Equity at exit: $75,670

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22920

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,148/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,123

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $811	-5% $774	+0% $737	+5% $700	+10% $664
Rent	-10% $575	-5% $656	+0% $737	+5% $818	+10% $900
Rate	-1.0pp $803	-0.5pp $770	base $737	+0.5pp $703	+1.0pp $669

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,148 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,148 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,148
• − Insurance: −$1,316
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,974
• − Management: −$1,974
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $7,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,727
• After-tax cash flow: $7,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Nellysford

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #19533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,188
• Population (ZIP): 3,744

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Current HPI: 315.7482
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,148 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.