2920 Superior Rd · Magnolia, TX 77354

$750,000

6 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2014 2.10 ac lot $183/sqft · 23% below area Est $1057k · 29% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.6/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Private country living on a secluded 2-acre lot just minutes from the conveniences of FM 1488. Tucked behind mature trees and accessed by a long gravel drive, this custom-built 6-bedroom home with metal roof offers exceptional privacy and flexibility. Inside, a striking living room features a vaulted wood-plank ceiling, stone fireplace, and archways leading to the spacious custom kitchen. Multiple living areas include a media room and a den with a unique play loft connecting the rear bedrooms. Several rooms are wired for sound, and recent updates include new carpet and tile in the front portion of the home. A bright sunroom addition overlooks the wooded setting, while outdoors you'll find a wraparound deck, play areas, fire pit, greenhouse, workshop, blueberry bushes, and mature peach and fig trees. No HOA, no restrictions, no MUD tax, plus a new well.

Key facts

• 2.1 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2014

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $750k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-35k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (68.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (66.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (68.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $80k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $75k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$129k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($728k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,214 (68.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 68% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.34% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.49%
• DSCR: 0.27
• GRM: 24.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,056,816
• List price: $750,000
• Delta: -29.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $217,892
• Equity at exit: $675,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $773,861
• Equity at exit: $1,457,085

Cash invested: $210,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 24.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,526 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax from tax record: −$635 /mo · $7,625/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-2,886

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,179

Max offer price $240,214

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,500
• Closing costs: $22,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $750,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $750,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $750,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $750,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $750,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $750,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $750,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $750,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $750,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $750,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $750,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $750,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $750,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    listed $750,000 Active 864-char remark

    Show marketing remark (864 chars)

    Private country living on a secluded 2-acre lot just minutes from the conveniences of FM 1488. Tucked behind mature trees and accessed by a long gravel drive, this custom-built 6-bedroom home with metal roof offers exceptional privacy and flexibility. Inside, a striking living room features a vaulted wood-plank ceiling, stone fireplace, and archways leading to the spacious custom kitchen. Multiple living areas include a media room and a den with a unique play loft connecting the rear bedrooms. Several rooms are wired for sound, and recent updates include new carpet and tile in the front portion of the home. A bright sunroom addition overlooks the wooded setting, while outdoors you'll find a wraparound deck, play areas, fire pit, greenhouse, workshop, blueberry bushes, and mature peach and fig trees. No HOA, no restrictions, no MUD tax, plus a new well.

15. 2026-04-22
    historical $750,000 864-char remark

    Show marketing remark (864 chars)

    Private country living on a secluded 2-acre lot just minutes from the conveniences of FM 1488. Tucked behind mature trees and accessed by a long gravel drive, this custom-built 6-bedroom home with metal roof offers exceptional privacy and flexibility. Inside, a striking living room features a vaulted wood-plank ceiling, stone fireplace, and archways leading to the spacious custom kitchen. Multiple living areas include a media room and a den with a unique play loft connecting the rear bedrooms. Several rooms are wired for sound, and recent updates include new carpet and tile in the front portion of the home. A bright sunroom addition overlooks the wooded setting, while outdoors you'll find a wraparound deck, play areas, fire pit, greenhouse, workshop, blueberry bushes, and mature peach and fig trees. No HOA, no restrictions, no MUD tax, plus a new well.

16. 2026-04-22
    historical

    Show marketing remark (864 chars)

    Private country living on a secluded 2-acre lot just minutes from the conveniences of FM 1488. Tucked behind mature trees and accessed by a long gravel drive, this custom-built 6-bedroom home with metal roof offers exceptional privacy and flexibility. Inside, a striking living room features a vaulted wood-plank ceiling, stone fireplace, and archways leading to the spacious custom kitchen. Multiple living areas include a media room and a den with a unique play loft connecting the rear bedrooms. Several rooms are wired for sound, and recent updates include new carpet and tile in the front portion of the home. A bright sunroom addition overlooks the wooded setting, while outdoors you'll find a wraparound deck, play areas, fire pit, greenhouse, workshop, blueberry bushes, and mature peach and fig trees. No HOA, no restrictions, no MUD tax, plus a new well.

17. 2026-03-11
    listed $850,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,625 · $635/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,725 · $1,144/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,100/yr (+$508/mo · 80.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,012
• − Property taxes: −$7,625
• − Insurance: −$3,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,425
• − Management: −$2,425
• − Depreciation: −$21,818
• Taxable loss: −$49,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,939
• After-tax cash flow: $-22,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $750,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $750,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $850,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+67.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,625 · +469.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.