6650 Palace Dr · Lumberton, TX 77657

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,187 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2012 5,663 sqft lot $190/sqft · at area comps Est $231k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome HOME! This brick home features three bedrooms and two full baths. Just enough space for family and friends to enjoy spending time with you! Don't forget the cozy backyard with a storage building and a perfect place for any outdoor seating. Call today and make an appointment so you can be in your new home before the school year ends!

Key facts

• Outdoor seating
• Storage building
• Cozy backyard

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• COZY BACKYARD
• STORAGE BUILDING
• OUTDOOR SEATING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-180/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lumberton Pri (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 982 students, 43% FRL); Lumberton Middle (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 969 students, 35% FRL); Lumberton H S (math 55% / reading 61%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,229 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,361 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,936
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -2.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6630 Palace Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,259 (+6%)	10mo	$260,000	$207	80
6645 Palace Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,167 (-2%)	23mo	$215,000	$184	76
6605 Palace Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+6%)	12mo	$214,900	$170	75
5220 Springwood Loop	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,168 (-2%)	10mo	$230,900	$198	73
5318 Wheeler Rd	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,261 (+6%)	22mo	$224,900	$178	65
5820 Perrell Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+11%)	17mo	$239,900	$182	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-37,385
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,658
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,416/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,973

Max offer price $222,345

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $49	+0% $-15	+5% $-79	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-92	+0% $-15	+5% $62	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $42	base $-15	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5670 Shadowbend Cir N Unit 104 Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	15d	1	0.37mi
5525 Westchase Loop Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,100	$1.52	15d	1	0.82mi
7988 Hickory Hollow Dr Unit 1 Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	15d	1	0.87mi
7988 Hickory Hollow Dr #2 Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	784	$1,050	$1.34	15d	1	0.90mi
30 Stephens Ln Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1290	$1,650	$1.28	45d	1	1.10mi
65 Jordan Dr Lumberton, TX	4.0	2.0	1352	$1,995	$1.48	15d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Welcome HOME! This brick home features three bedrooms and two full baths. Just enough space for family and friends to enjoy spending time with you! Don't forget the cozy backyard with a storage building and a perfect place for any outdoor seating. Call today and make an appointment so you can be in your new home before the school year ends!

2. 2026-04-21
   price $225,000 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Welcome HOME! This brick home features three bedrooms and two full baths. Just enough space for family and friends to enjoy spending time with you! Don't forget the cozy backyard with a storage building and a perfect place for any outdoor seating. Call today and make an appointment so you can be in your new home before the school year ends!

3. 2026-04-08
   price $227,500 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Welcome HOME! This brick home features three bedrooms and two full baths. Just enough space for family and friends to enjoy spending time with you! Don't forget the cozy backyard with a storage building and a perfect place for any outdoor seating. Call today and make an appointment so you can be in your new home before the school year ends!

4. 2026-03-24
   listed $230,000 Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Welcome HOME! This brick home features three bedrooms and two full baths. Just enough space for family and friends to enjoy spending time with you! Don't forget the cozy backyard with a storage building and a perfect place for any outdoor seating. Call today and make an appointment so you can be in your new home before the school year ends!

5. 2024-06-07
   soldstatus Closed 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Highly sought after neighborhood in Lumberton I. S. D. Home is immaculate and only 12 years old. Open layout with a cozy kitchen and breakfast area combo. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances including the LG refrigerator and a water filter system. Living room features vaulted ceilings and recess lighting. Tile flooring, carpet in 2 bedrooms and laminate flooring in master bedroom. Master bedroom has vaulted ceiling, recess lighting and a full bathroom. Workshop is 10x18 with R-19 insulation and a window unit. The large, fenced backyard is perfect for the kids to play and mom you can relax on the nice patio. Firepit for the cold days.

6. 2024-06-07
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Highly sought after neighborhood in Lumberton I. S. D. Home is immaculate and only 12 years old. Open layout with a cozy kitchen and breakfast area combo. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances including the LG refrigerator and a water filter system. Living room features vaulted ceilings and recess lighting. Tile flooring, carpet in 2 bedrooms and laminate flooring in master bedroom. Master bedroom has vaulted ceiling, recess lighting and a full bathroom. Workshop is 10x18 with R-19 insulation and a window unit. The large, fenced backyard is perfect for the kids to play and mom you can relax on the nice patio. Firepit for the cold days.

7. 2024-04-22
   status Pending 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Highly sought after neighborhood in Lumberton I. S. D. Home is immaculate and only 12 years old. Open layout with a cozy kitchen and breakfast area combo. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances including the LG refrigerator and a water filter system. Living room features vaulted ceilings and recess lighting. Tile flooring, carpet in 2 bedrooms and laminate flooring in master bedroom. Master bedroom has vaulted ceiling, recess lighting and a full bathroom. Workshop is 10x18 with R-19 insulation and a window unit. The large, fenced backyard is perfect for the kids to play and mom you can relax on the nice patio. Firepit for the cold days.

8. 2024-04-15
   listed $215,000 Active 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Highly sought after neighborhood in Lumberton I. S. D. Home is immaculate and only 12 years old. Open layout with a cozy kitchen and breakfast area combo. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances including the LG refrigerator and a water filter system. Living room features vaulted ceilings and recess lighting. Tile flooring, carpet in 2 bedrooms and laminate flooring in master bedroom. Master bedroom has vaulted ceiling, recess lighting and a full bathroom. Workshop is 10x18 with R-19 insulation and a window unit. The large, fenced backyard is perfect for the kids to play and mom you can relax on the nice patio. Firepit for the cold days.

9. 2022-09-26
   soldstatus
10. 2022-09-23
    soldstatus
11. 2022-09-23
    soldstatus
12. 2022-08-30
    listed $204,900
13. 2022-08-24
    listed $204,900
14. 2021-06-03
    soldstatus
15. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus
16. 2021-04-14
    listed $164,900
17. 2013-10-04
    soldstatus
18. 2013-09-12
    listed $120,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,416 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$701/yr (+$58/mo · 20.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,416
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$960
• After-tax cash flow: $779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+86.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $225,000 BBOR
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $227,500 BBOR
• 2026-03-24 Listed $230,000 BBOR
• 2024-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-07 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2024-04-22 Pending — BBOR
• 2024-04-15 Listed $215,000 BBOR
• 2022-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-23 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2022-09-23 Sold (MLS) — PNPANBOR
• 2022-08-30 Listed $204,900 BBOR
• 2022-08-24 Listed $204,900 PNPANBOR
• 2021-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2021-04-14 Listed $164,900 BBOR
• 2013-10-04 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2013-09-12 Listed $120,600 BBOR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,416 · +14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.