363 State Highway 420 · Winthrop, NY 13697

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1955 0.33 ac lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $142k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS WELL MAINTAINED RANCH IN WINTHROP IS READY FOR NEW OWNERS! This inviting 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers comfort, convenience, and flexibility both inside and out. As you enter, you’re welcomed by an entryway with a coat closet that opens into a spacious living room filled with natural light, with hardwood flooring beneath the carpet. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space, with appliances included, and offers enough room for a table or even an island. Just off the kitchen is a versatile bonus room surrounded by windows, perfect for use as a second living area, dining room, bedroom, office, or playroom, complete with a sliding glass door leading to the covered side porch. Down the hall from the living room, you’ll find three comfortable bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a convenient linen closet. The basement houses the forced air gas furnace, water softener, water heater, and washer and dryer, providing additional storage and utility space. Outside, you’ll love relaxing on the covered porch, spending time in the gazebo, or enjoying the spacious yard. The paved driveway leads to a one-car detached garage as well as a carport for extra covered parking. For added peace of mind, the home is equipped with a Generac generator that automatically powers on during outages. Conveniently located just a short drive to Brasher Falls, Potsdam, Norwood, Massena, and Canada, this property offers both tranquility and accessibility. Schedule your showing today to experience all this lovely home has to offer!

Key facts

• Sliding glass door
• Versatile bonus room
• Spacious living room

Tags

• ENTRYWAY WITH COAT CLOSET
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• SLIDING GLASS DOOR
• COVERED SIDE PORCH
• CONVENIENT LINEN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,067 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Brasher Falls Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #499 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,897 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.48%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,994
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 4.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
369 State Highway 420	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,010 (-1%)	21mo	$127,000	$126	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $38,221
• Equity at exit: $94,362

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $116,645
• Equity at exit: $171,724

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13697

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,755/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,358

Max offer price $133,753

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-17
   price $149,000 1552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1552 chars)

   THIS WELL MAINTAINED RANCH IN WINTHROP IS READY FOR NEW OWNERS! This inviting 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers comfort, convenience, and flexibility both inside and out. As you enter, you’re welcomed by an entryway with a coat closet that opens into a spacious living room filled with natural light, with hardwood flooring beneath the carpet. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space, with appliances included, and offers enough room for a table or even an island. Just off the kitchen is a versatile bonus room surrounded by windows, perfect for use as a second living area, dining room, bedroom, office, or playroom, complete with a sliding glass door leading to the covered side porch. Down the hall from the living room, you’ll find three comfortable bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a convenient linen closet. The basement houses the forced air gas furnace, water softener, water heater, and washer and dryer, providing additional storage and utility space. Outside, you’ll love relaxing on the covered porch, spending time in the gazebo, or enjoying the spacious yard. The paved driveway leads to a one-car detached garage as well as a carport for extra covered parking. For added peace of mind, the home is equipped with a Generac generator that automatically powers on during outages. Conveniently located just a short drive to Brasher Falls, Potsdam, Norwood, Massena, and Canada, this property offers both tranquility and accessibility. Schedule your showing today to experience all this lovely home has to offer!

2. 2026-03-31
   listed $159,000 Active 1552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1552 chars)

   THIS WELL MAINTAINED RANCH IN WINTHROP IS READY FOR NEW OWNERS! This inviting 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers comfort, convenience, and flexibility both inside and out. As you enter, you’re welcomed by an entryway with a coat closet that opens into a spacious living room filled with natural light, with hardwood flooring beneath the carpet. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space, with appliances included, and offers enough room for a table or even an island. Just off the kitchen is a versatile bonus room surrounded by windows, perfect for use as a second living area, dining room, bedroom, office, or playroom, complete with a sliding glass door leading to the covered side porch. Down the hall from the living room, you’ll find three comfortable bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a convenient linen closet. The basement houses the forced air gas furnace, water softener, water heater, and washer and dryer, providing additional storage and utility space. Outside, you’ll love relaxing on the covered porch, spending time in the gazebo, or enjoying the spacious yard. The paved driveway leads to a one-car detached garage as well as a carport for extra covered parking. For added peace of mind, the home is equipped with a Generac generator that automatically powers on during outages. Conveniently located just a short drive to Brasher Falls, Potsdam, Norwood, Massena, and Canada, this property offers both tranquility and accessibility. Schedule your showing today to experience all this lovely home has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,755 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,755 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,755
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$3,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$862
• After-tax cash flow: $-174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brasher Falls Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627960
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,069
• Composite: 35.47/100
• National rank: #4926
• State rank: #499 of 590 in NY

Livability — Winthrop

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1067
• US rank: #21337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winthrop, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,951

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 5% German 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Current HPI: 305.4251
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $149,000 SLCMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $159,000 SLCMLS

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,755 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.