3622 Saguaro Dr · Grand Prairie, TX 75052

$474,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,035 sqft · Land · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 6,877 sqft lot $233/sqft · at area comps Est $480k · at est. $133/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Zamboni is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Preserve at The Forum community in Grand Prairie, Texas. With 2 modern exteriors to choose from, the Zamboni is sure to turn heads. To top it off, this home will feature a stunning 4-lite front-door allowing in ample amounts of natural light to come through. Inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home, you’ll find 2,032 square feet of comfortable living. The living area is an open concept, where your kitchen, living, and dining areas blend seamlessly into a space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features shaker-style cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, equipped with everything

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Modern exteriors
• Open concept

Tags

• MODERN EXTERIORS
• OPEN CONCEPT
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: The Preserve at Forum
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory association managed by Neighborhood Management Inc; Semi-annual association fee (management fees included)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway; Attached 2-car garage that faces front
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence attached within community; One story; New construction (incomplete) built in 2026
• Construction: Brick and fiber cement exterior; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced front and back yard (wood); Sprinkler system; Irrigation equipment; Utilities easement

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Plumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with dual sinks, separate shower, and walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on level 1
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Double vanity; Walk-in closets; Wired for data; Smart home system; Tankless water heater; Water purifier
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $475k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (40.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (44.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#33 in TX, #1,660 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Grand Prairie ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #572 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 290 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $265,759 (44.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.87%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $479,990
• List price: $474,990
• Delta: -1.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-168,254
• Equity at exit: $70,823

10-year hold

• IRR: -91.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.13×
• Total profit: $-283,315
• Equity at exit: $41,068

Cash invested: $132,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75052

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,658 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$594 /mo · $7,125/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-1,316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,323

Max offer price $284,555

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-988	-5% $-1,152	+0% $-1,316	+5% $-1,480	+10% $-1,644
Rent	-10% $-1,526	-5% $-1,421	+0% $-1,316	+5% $-1,211	+10% $-1,106
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,077	-0.5pp $-1,195	base $-1,316	+0.5pp $-1,439	+1.0pp $-1,564

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,748
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2136 Dayton Ln Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2313	$7,900	$3.42	0d	1	0.18mi
2136 Dayton Ln Unit 1019626P Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2303	$12,424	$5.39	23d	1	0.18mi
2136 Sara Jane Pkwy Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,999	$3.04	0d	17	0.32mi
3765 Pierce Ln Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.5	1822	$3,100	$1.70	0d	1	0.38mi
3705 Pierce Ln Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.5	1819	$3,000	$1.65	26d	1	0.40mi
3740 Pierce Ln Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	3.5	2100	$3,300	$1.57	45d	1	0.41mi
2468 Ranchview Dr Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$3,000	$1.36	45d	1	0.45mi
2410 Lost Mesa Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.0	2220	$2,900	$1.31	45d	1	0.58mi
2504 Frontier Dr Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2541	$2,820	$1.11	45d	1	0.64mi
2361 Shirecreek Cir Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,675	$1.03	45d	1	0.72mi
1661 S Forum Dr Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1061	$2,515	$2.37	0d	25	0.78mi
854 Timberdale St Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,200	$1.36	45d	1	0.90mi
3156 Pine Valley Dr Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2301	$2,760	$1.20	8d	1	0.91mi
4105 Devon Ct Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	3.0	1973	$1,100	$0.56	45d	1	0.97mi
2755 W Interstate 20 Unit 2788 Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,324	$1.50	0d	1	1.08mi
819 Over Ridge Dr Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.5	2046	$2,500	$1.22	22d	1	1.13mi
2755 Interstate 20 Grand Prairie, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1165	$2,154	$1.85	0d	18	1.16mi
3401 Glenda Dr Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1554	$2,206	$1.42	45d	1	1.21mi
2510 Bentley Dr Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.0	1638	$2,211	$1.35	45d	1	1.25mi
618 Thornwood Trl Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,600	$1.44	0d	1	1.29mi
614 Brian Dr Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,130	$1.45	0d	1	1.31mi
4255 Fall Creek Dr Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	2264	$2,600	$1.15	45d	1	1.32mi
2645 Danberry Ln Grand Prairie, TX	4.0	2.0	1595	$2,219	$1.39	21d	1	1.35mi
860 Roaring Springs Rd Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.5	2857	$2,716	$0.95	26d	1	1.35mi
2514 Livingston Ln Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,150	$1.42	20d	1	1.36mi
2514 Livingston Ln Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,150	$1.40	45d	1	1.36mi
3914 Willowood Ln Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1963	$2,519	$1.28	9d	1	1.37mi
2661 Claremont Dr Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,985	$1.08	26d	1	1.45mi
2661 Claremont Dr Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$2,106	$1.14	45d	1	1.45mi
2901 W Bardin Rd Grand Prairie, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1703	$3,224	$1.89	0d	5	1.46mi
2901 Bardin Rd Unit 19443 Grand Prairie, TX	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,000	$1.22	6d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $471,990 Active 1357-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   price $491,990 238-char remark
3. 2026-04-21
   price $489,990 238-char remark
4. 2026-03-22
   listed $485,990 Active 238-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$7,125
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,551
• − Management: −$2,551
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$24,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This vacant land property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior updates, landscaping, and HVAC upgrades. Significant improvements are needed to make it move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and potential leakage.
• Major exterior siding — Severe wear and tear.
• Major exterior paint — Severe wear and tear.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt appearance.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, likely in poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value.
• Resale exterior siding and paint — Fresh siding and paint would enhance the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC/mechanical upgrades — Upgrading HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant wear and potential leakage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Severe wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Severe wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible systems, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale exterior siding and paint — Fresh siding and paint would enhance the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanical upgrades — Upgrading HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grand Prairie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821420
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,094
• Composite: 27.95/100
• National rank: #6861
• State rank: #572 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grand Prairie

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1660

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grand Prairie, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 201,439
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 97,278
• Household income: $89,301
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3118.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 29% White 19% Two or more races 16% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 27% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.08%
• Current HPI: 289.3711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $474,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $471,990 NTREIS