1731 Co Rd 1028 #78822 · Muleshoe, TX 79347

$119,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,977 sqft · SingleFamily · 279 Days on market

Built 1967 Poor condition 5.00 ac lot ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated sellers are willing to look at any and all offers! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is sitting on 5 acres, has a carport, RV carport, a small barn, and an extra living area with a wood-burning stove. This property needs a new water well and some TLC, but the possibilities are endless with so much acreage and square footage! Ready for the country life? Come take a look today! * I will upload pictures of the dinning room area, master bedroom with bathroom, a bedroom, and the extra living area as soon as possible.

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1967

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#331 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D-.
• Muleshoe ISD (town): math 33% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #580 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Bailey County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Bailey County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,595 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.74%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $41,307
• Equity at exit: $67,816

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $113,083
• Equity at exit: $116,890

Cash invested: $33,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79347

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,324 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $119,995

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $258	+0% $217	+5% $175	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $112	-5% $164	+0% $217	+5% $269	+10% $321
Rate	-1.0pp $277	-0.5pp $247	base $217	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,999
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,995 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,995 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,995 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,995 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,995 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,995 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,995 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,995 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,995 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,995 Active 267 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,995 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,995 Active 263 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,995 Active 262 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,995 Active 261 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,995 Active 260 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,995 Active 259 DOM
17. 2026-02-15
    price $119,995 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Motivated sellers are willing to look at any and all offers! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is sitting on 5 acres, has a carport, RV carport, a small barn, and an extra living area with a wood-burning stove. This property needs a new water well and some TLC, but the possibilities are endless with so much acreage and square footage! Ready for the country life? Come take a look today! * I will upload pictures of the dinning room area, master bedroom with bathroom, a bedroom, and the extra living area as soon as possible.

18. 2025-09-13
    listed $152,995 Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Motivated sellers are willing to look at any and all offers! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is sitting on 5 acres, has a carport, RV carport, a small barn, and an extra living area with a wood-burning stove. This property needs a new water well and some TLC, but the possibilities are endless with so much acreage and square footage! Ready for the country life? Come take a look today! * I will upload pictures of the dinning room area, master bedroom with bathroom, a bedroom, and the extra living area as soon as possible.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,271
• − Management: −$1,271
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $734
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$176
• After-tax cash flow: $2,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 30/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations, including updating the kitchen, repairing the exterior, and replacing the HVAC system. The current condition is poor, and significant improvements are needed to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — dated and in poor condition
• Major kitchen countertops — worn and in need of replacement
• Major HVAC system — no visible condition
• Major exterior siding — weathered and in need of repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will improve both resale and rental value
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — improving the exterior will enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both replace HVAC system — a functional HVAC system is essential for both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen countertops · worn and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · no visible condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · weathered and in need of repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — improving the exterior will enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both replace HVAC system — a functional HVAC system is essential for both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Muleshoe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831890
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,141
• Composite: 27.54/100
• National rank: #6950
• State rank: #580 of 826 in TX

Livability — Muleshoe

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #7229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,264

Population outlook (Bailey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,346 people
• By 2030: 7,428 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 7,706 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 8,052 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 8,963 · +22.0%
• By 2100: 9,549 · +30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% White 31% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bailey

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -40.4pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.1 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.98%
• Current HPI: 138.9883
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $119,995 LARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Listed $152,995 LARMLS