38 Erie Ln Unit E38 · Goodview, MN 55987

$38,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 Average condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as community events, a playground, and a basketball court, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Plan name 90969; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $38,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air
• Home design: Spec-built property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1400

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 total bathrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $990 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $38k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#236 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Winona Area Public School District (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #244 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.0%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Winona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $266 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winona County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $38,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 110.19%
• DSCR: 5.90
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $65,233
• Equity at exit: $5,740

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.36×
• Total profit: $176,322
• Equity at exit: $3,329

Cash invested: $10,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55987

• Rents YoY: 18.0%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$202
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$48 /mo · $578/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $990

Break-even live

Break-even rent $337

Max offer price $38,500

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,625
• Closing costs: $1,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $38,500 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,157
• − Property taxes: −$578
• − Insurance: −$192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,526
• − Management: −$1,526
• − Depreciation: −$1,120
• Taxable income: $11,979
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,875
• After-tax cash flow: $9,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Slight discoloration on exterior siding
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown grass and weeds

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping attracts tenants and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Slight discoloration on exterior siding	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown grass and weeds	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping attracts tenants and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winona Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2744070
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,678
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6058
• State rank: #244 of 301 in MN

Livability — Goodview

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #5015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodview, MN
• County: Winona County · 34,072 people
• Metro: Winona, MN
• Population (ZIP): 34,072
• Household income: $61,624
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1525.0

Population outlook (Winona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,614 people
• By 2030: 50,243 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 48,142 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 45,872 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 42,416 · -16.2%
• By 2100: 40,031 · -20.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winona

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.5% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: -4.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.9 2020: D+0.4 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+12.9 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -166.61%
• Current HPI: 193.7509
• Rent YoY: ▲ 17.99%
• Metro: Winona, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B