34 Magnolia Dr · Calistoga, CA 94515

$193,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $170/sqft · 7% above area Est $182k · 7% over ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the desirable Calistoga Springs community, this beautifully updated home offers comfortable Wine Country living with modern touches throughout. Featuring an open and inviting floor plan, the home is filled with natural light and designed for easy everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen opens seamlessly to the living and dining areas, while generously sized bedrooms provide comfort and flexibility. Enjoy indoor-outdoor living with a private patio area perfect for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings. Residents of Calistoga Springs enjoy access to the newly renovated clubhouse and mineral pool, all just minutes from downtown Calistoga's renowned restaurants, winer

Key facts

• Private patio area
• Mineral pool
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• CALISTOGA SPRINGS COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE PATIO AREA
• NEWLY RENOVATED CLUBHOUSE
• MINERAL POOL
• NAPA VALLEY LIFESTYLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Calistoga at Calistoga Springs park
• Financial info: Land lease applies (monthly land lease amount noted separately)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double wide; Senior community
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Manufactured home make: Golden Heritage
• Exterior features: Backyard; Corner lot; Close to clubhouse; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Microwave; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with shower stalls and tub/shower over combos
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dining and living combined space; Living room; Porch awning
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included in an interior laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 2.4% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,083 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.44%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,500
• List price: $193,900
• Delta: 6.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
219 Champagne W	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+1%)	14mo	$170,000	$148	78
937 Champagne Cir S	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+10%)	2mo	$198,000	$159	65
157 Wisteria Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	15mo	$195,000	$188	65
512 Sherry N #245	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,284 (+13%)	4mo	$280,000	$218	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $63,687
• Equity at exit: $28,911

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $178,189
• Equity at exit: $16,765

Cash invested: $54,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94515

• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$242 /mo · $2,908/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$770
• Net cashflow: $1,492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,780

Max offer price $193,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,475
• Closing costs: $5,817
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2014 Tablerock Ct Calistoga, CA	3.0	2.0	1459	$4,095	$2.81	14d	1	0.62mi
1700 Cedar St Calistoga, CA	2.0	1.0	962	$3,200	$3.33	14d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $193,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $193,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $193,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $193,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $193,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $193,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $193,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $193,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $193,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $193,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $193,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $193,900 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $193,900 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $193,900 Active 812-char remark
18. 2025-09-19
    price $199,900
19. 2025-08-28
    price $209,000
20. 2025-07-29
    price $219,900
21. 2025-07-03
    listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,861
• − Property taxes: −$2,908
• − Insurance: −$1,767
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,522
• − Management: −$3,522
• − Depreciation: −$5,641
• Taxable income: $15,802
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,792
• After-tax cash flow: $14,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Calistoga Springs offers a good condition with modern updates and a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace countertops — Granite countertops are durable and add value
• Both Install new flooring — Hardwood floors are durable and add value
• Both Update lighting fixtures — Modern lighting enhances aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Granite countertops are durable and add value ↑
• Both Install new flooring — Hardwood floors are durable and add value ↑
• Both Update lighting fixtures — Modern lighting enhances aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calistoga Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607020
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,716
• Composite: 39.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #624 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Calistoga

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #15176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calistoga, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,921

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 34% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -476.46%
• Current HPI: 244.6548
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $193,900 BAREIS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $199,900 BAREIS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $209,000 BAREIS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $219,900 BAREIS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $239,900 BAREIS