34 Magnolia Dr · Calistoga, CA 94515

$179,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 133 Days on market

Manufactured home likely 55+ (park) Built 1973 Good condition $158/sqft · 12% below area Est $204k · 12% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.3

Listing remarks

Nestled in the desirable Calistoga Springs community, this beautifully updated home offers comfortable Wine Country living with modern touches throughout. Featuring an open and inviting floor plan, the home is filled with natural light and designed for easy everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen opens seamlessly to the living and dining areas, while generously sized bedrooms provide comfort and flexibility. Enjoy indoor-outdoor living with a private patio area perfect for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings.

Key facts

• Private patio area
• Mineral pool
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• CALISTOGA SPRINGS COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE PATIO AREA
• NEWLY RENOVATED CLUBHOUSE
• MINERAL POOL
• NAPA VALLEY LIFESTYLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $824 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 2.6% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calistoga Elementary (412 students, 82% FRL); Calistoga Junior/Senior High (380 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 58% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,395 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.19%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,940
• List price: $179,995
• Delta: -11.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
937 Champagne Cir S	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+10%)	5mo	$198,000	$159	63
146 Wisteria Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+18%)	1mo	$231,750	$172	62
406 Burgundy N	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+18%)	1mo	$220,000	$164	58
512 Sherry N #245	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,284 (+13%)	7mo	$280,000	$218	57
2412 Foothill Blvd Blvd #43	1.04mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+1%)	13mo	$74,999	$65	52
2412 Foothill Blvd #71	0.94mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+10%)	4mo	$99,900	$80	46
2412 Foothill Blvd #166	0.94mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+10%)	6mo	$153,000	$123	44
2412 Foothill Blvd #15	1.02mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+11%)	3mo	$208,950	$165	44
2412 Foothill Blvd #124	1.02mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+14%)	2mo	$160,000	$123	40
2412 Foothill Blvd #63	1.04mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+18%)	4mo	$92,500	$69	36
2412 Foothill Blvd #20	1.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+8%)	13mo	$155,000	$126	36
2412 Foothill Blvd #41	1.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+18%)	6mo	$164,000	$122	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $23,365
• Equity at exit: $26,838

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $88,215
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 1.5 mo (67%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $193,900 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 133 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -3.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 94515

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,701 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $824

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $179,995

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $948	-5% $886	+0% $824	+5% $761	+10% $699
Rent	-10% $610	-5% $717	+0% $824	+5% $930	+10% $1,037
Rate	-1.0pp $914	-0.5pp $869	base $824	+0.5pp $777	+1.0pp $729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,999
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2014 Tablerock Ct Calistoga, CA	3.0	2.0	1459	$3,900	$2.67	42d	1	0.62mi
1408 W Myrtle St Unit 1410 Calistoga, CA	2.0	2.5	1400	$3,395	$2.42	0d	1	0.66mi
1700 Cedar St Calistoga, CA	2.0	1.0	962	$3,200	$3.33	109d	1	0.74mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Calistoga at Calistoga Springs park
• Financial info: Land lease applies (monthly land lease amount noted separately)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Individual electric meterIndividual gas meterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a parkDouble wideSenior community
• Construction: Aluminum skirtingManufactured home make: Golden Heritage
• Exterior features: BackyardCorner lotClose to clubhouseShed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalFree standing gas rangeFree standing refrigeratorHood over rangeMicrowaveLaminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with shower stalls and tub/shower over combos
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Dining and living combined spaceLiving roomPorch awning
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included in an interior laundry roomGas water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $179,995 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $179,995 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $179,995 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $179,995 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $179,995 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   pricedays on market $179,995 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $193,900 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $193,900 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $193,900 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $193,900 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $193,900 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $193,900 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $193,900 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $193,900 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $193,900 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $193,900 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $193,900 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $193,900 Active 109 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $193,900 Active 108 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $193,900 Active 107 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $193,900 Active 106 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $193,900 Active 105 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $193,900 Active 104 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $193,900 Active 103 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $193,900 Active 102 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $193,900 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $193,900 Active 100 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $193,900 Active 99 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $193,900 Active 98 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $193,900 Active 97 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $193,900 Active 96 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $193,900 Active 95 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $193,900 Active 94 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $193,900 Active 93 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $193,900 Active 92 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $193,900 Active 91 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $193,900 Active 90 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $193,900 Active 89 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $193,900 Active 88 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $193,900 Active 87 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $193,900 Active 86 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $193,900 Active 85 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $193,900 Active 84 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $193,900 Active 83 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $193,900 Active 82 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $193,900 Active 81 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $193,900 Active 78 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $193,900 Active 77 DOM
49. 2026-07-29
    days on market $193,900 Active 76 DOM
50. 2026-07-27
    days on market $193,900 Active 74 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,593
• − Management: −$2,593
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $7,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,803
• After-tax cash flow: $8,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,700–$17,100 screening

This well-maintained mobile home in Calistoga Springs offers a good condition with modern updates and a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Granite countertops are durable and add value ↑
• Both Install new flooring — Hardwood floors are durable and add value ↑
• Both Update lighting fixtures — Modern lighting enhances aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Calistoga Elementary High Calistoga Junior/senior High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calistoga Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607020
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,716
• Composite: 39.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #624 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Calistoga

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #15176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calistoga, CA
• County: Napa · 153,987 people
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,921
• Household income: $97,202
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 34% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -476.46%
• Current HPI: 244.6548
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Calistoga at Calistoga Springs park
• Financial info: Land lease applies (monthly land lease amount noted separately)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Individual electric meterIndividual gas meterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a parkDouble wideSenior community
• Construction: Aluminum skirtingManufactured home make: Golden Heritage
• Exterior features: BackyardCorner lotClose to clubhouseShed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalFree standing gas rangeFree standing refrigeratorHood over rangeMicrowaveLaminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with shower stalls and tub/shower over combos
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Dining and living combined spaceLiving roomPorch awning
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included in an interior laundry roomGas water heater

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $193,900 BAREIS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $199,900 BAREIS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $209,000 BAREIS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $219,900 BAREIS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $239,900 BAREIS